By Contributor,David Eulitt,Mark LaSota,Ph.D

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KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – SEPTEMBER 14: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) reacts against the Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) during the second quarter in the game at Arrowhead Stadium on September 14, 2025 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)
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Two games into the NFL season, several fans and commentators are already beginning to draw conclusions about their team’s fate and the league’s top contenders. While 11.7 percent of the season’s sample is not insignificant, there is still a long way to go before crowning any winners. Therefore, it is far too early to predict which teams will make it to the playoffs in January, let alone forecast the Super Bowl.

To accurately assess a situation, it is important to first dive into history and gather relevant data. Then, determine which data points truly matter.

Over the past 35 years, numerous teams have either started the season 2-0 or 0-2. In 1990, the NFL expanded its playoff brackets to include a total of 12 teams. This will serve as a starting point for this investigation. The league further extended its playoff pool in 2020 to include 14 teams.

Here is a historical look at various teams who overcame slow starts and proved to be Super Bowl contenders, along with teams who started fast, but ultimately fell short of expectations.

Slow vs. Fast Starts: What They Mean in the NFL?

FOXBORO, MA – SEPTEMBER 24, 2001. QB Tom Brady of the New England Patriots reacts to a question after he was elevated to starting QB following an injury to Drew Bledsoe the previous Sunday against the New York Jets. The Patriots started the season with an 0-2 record before going on a Super Bowl run. (Photo by /MediaNews Group/Boston Herald via Getty Images)
MediaNews Group via Getty Images

There are only three teams in the Super Bowl era that began the season 0-2 and went on to win the Super Bowl:

1993 Dallas Cowboys: The Dallas Cowboys followed up their dominating victory in Super Bowl XXVII by dropping their first two games of the 1993 season. A key missing piece was Emmitt Smith, who had held out for the first two games due to a contract dispute. The 1993 Cowboys fought their way back into contention and won back-to-back Super Bowls. Smith went on to win the rushing title, while earning both regular season and Super Bowl MVP awards.

2001 New England Patriots: Coming off a 5-11 season, the New England Patriots started the 2001 NFL season with two consecutive losses, looking dismal on offense. Their franchise quarterback, Drew Bledsoe, suffered a serious injury from a hard tackle near the sidelines during the second game of the season. Backup quarterback Tom Brady, a former sixth-round draft pick, assumed the starting role and led the Patriots to their first-ever Super Bowl victory with a monumental upset over the heavily favored St. Louis Rams. Brady never relinquished his starting job for the remainder of his career, winning six more Super Bowl titles.

2007 New York Giants: While Brady shocked the football world during the 2001 NFL season, he would find himself on the opposite end of such fortunes just a few years later. The last team to lose their first two games and still go on to win the Super Bowl was the 2007 New York Giants. In the process, they orchestrated perhaps the biggest upset victory in Super Bowl history, defeating Brady’s undefeated Patriots in Super Bowl XLII.

These three teams are outliers when it comes to championship results. While winning the Super Bowl is incredibly difficult, even making the playoffs can be a daunting task when starting from a deficit. From 1990 to 2022, only 30 of the 265 teams that began the season with an 0-2 record made the playoffs, according to research conducted by CBS Sports. This amounts to around a 11 percent chance of teams making the playoffs after losing their first two games. While these are not great odds, they also indicate that many teams have overcome slow starts. Most recently, the 2022 Cincinnati Bengals, 2023 Houston Texans, and 2024 Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Rams all overcame 0-2 starts to win their respective divisions and advance in the playoffs.

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On the other hand, NFL teams that start the season 2-0 have significantly higher odds of making the playoffs. During the same time period from 1990 to 2022, an estimated 63.8 percent of 2-0 teams made the playoffs, according to Pro Football Reference data. The last two seasons have seen those odds increase. In 2023 and 2024, there were 18 teams that started 2-0, and 13 of them made the playoffs (72.2%). Although many NFL teams have faltered after strong starts, beginning the season with consecutive victories is a promising sign.

With this stated, several NFL teams have had much stronger starts to seasons but ultimately missed the playoffs. The 1987 San Diego Chargers began the season 8-1 during a strike year, only to finish 8-7. The 2012 Chicago Bears started 7-1 but won three more games the rest of the season and missed the playoffs at 10-6. Similarly, the 2003 Minnesota Vikings and 2009 Denver Broncos both started 6-0 yet failed to qualify for the post season. These are just a few examples.

Cautious Optimism, Early Warning Signs, and Remembering It’s a Long Season

SAN DIEGO, CA – OCTOBER 4, 1992: Seattle Seahawks DT Cortez Kennedy (99) talks with San Diego Chargers LB Junior Seau (55) after the game at the former Jack Murphy Stadium in San Diego, CA. After starting the season 0-4, the Chargers defeated the Seahawks 17-6 to win their first game of the 1992 season. (Photo by John W. McDonough /Sports Illustrated via Getty Images)
Sports Illustrated via Getty Images

Through two games, multiple teams are off to encouraging starts. So far, the Green Bay Packers have looked most impressive, opening with two wins against playoff teams from last season. The Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles have won two close games, including a road victory against the Kansas City Chiefs, the team they defeated in the Super Bowl. Another team that beat the Chiefs, the Los Angeles Chargers, began the season with victories against two division opponents. After an exciting week one comeback victory over the Baltimore Ravens, the Buffalo Bills soundly defeated the New York Jets in week 2. The San Francisco 49ers tallied two road wins, while the Indianapolis Colts currently rank in the top five in both offense and defense.

Both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Los Angeles Rams were playoff teams last season and have begun this year with two victories. The Arizona Cardinals are surprisingly 2-0, while Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals will miss significant time after injuring his toe this week, putting the Bengals’ perfect start in jeopardy.

Including the Super Bowl runner-up Chiefs, a total of 10 teams have started this season 0-2. The Texans lost both games by a combined total of six points to two playoff teams from the previous year, while the some of the other teams suffered losses by much larger margins.

It is important to note that the odds of making the playoffs decrease significantly for teams that start the season 0-3. In the Super Bowl era, only six teams have begun with three consecutive losses and still managed to qualify for the playoffs. To a lesser extent, only one team has ever started 0-4 and still made the playoffs. The 1992 Chargers overcame four openings losses in which they were soundly beaten in each contest, and showed resilience by winning 12 of the next 13 games, before finally losing in the divisional round of the AFC playoffs.

The reality is that in the NFL, everyone eventually gets humbled. First-time head coaches move beyond the honeymoon phase and enter a period of skepticism. Championship contenders and favorites to win their divisions find themselves trailing in the standings. Upstart teams that emerged unexpectedly face well-prepared opponents down the line who have made strategic adjustments. These are professional players and coaches. Games are often decided by a final possession, series of penalties, or matchup factor. There is much parity in the league. Adjustments will be made, and by November and December, there will be a much clearer picture of who the contenders and pretenders are.

So, who will emerge this season? Is there a surprise team that will make a deep playoff run? Are there any backup players who fill in for injured teammates and help lead their teams to the playoffs or even the Super Bowl? True contenders play their best football in December and January.

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