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In 2017, the CEO of General Motors, Mary Barra, committed the automaker to zero emissions by 2030. “No more gas. No more diesel. No more carbon emissions,” she wrote at the time. Following the lead of Barra of GM, Ford announced in 2018 that it planned to nearly triple its investments in electric and hybrid vehicles by 2022, with plans for 40 new such models… But a series of challenges — cost concerns, sluggish adoption and the reversal in support in Washington — has left the U.S. auto industry with greater uncertainty about its EV future. “Penetration has stalled,” said David Whiston, a senior analyst at Morningstar investment research company who covers autos. (NBC News) We saw evidence of the slowdown last week, when General Motors said it will incur a $1.6 billion loss to scale back its electric vehicle (EV) operations, citing weaker expected demand due to recent US policy changes, including the end of federal EV tax credits and loosened emissions rules. (Zero Hedge) On Sept. 30, the federal EV tax credit expired as part of a broader anti-EV mandate by the Trump administration. The credit started in 2008 and was expanded under the Biden administration. It had been a key driver of EV sales in the US. In Bécancour, Quebec, the planned expansion of a battery facility was put on hold. The first phase of the project, called Ultium CAM, a partnership between General Motors and Korean steel manufacturer POSCO, is under construction, with the $600 million facility due to open in 2026. But according to Energy Now, A spokesperson for General Motors Canada said Thursday that the company is pausing the second phase of a project to produce cathode active materials for electric-vehicle batteries… The decision was made “in light of evolving market dynamics,” according to spokesperson Marie Binette. As a result of that decision, Brazilian mining giant Vale SA has scrapped plans for a nickel sulfate plant that would have supplied the second phase of the Ultium CAM project. In a statement, Vale Base Metals said GM “will not need nickel sulfate in Quebec at this time.” As my Oilprice colleague Irina Slav wrote on Oct. 14, US EV sales surged a record 40% in the third quarter, driven by a rush to buy before the $7,500 federal tax credit expired on Sept. 30. The push to buy EVs ahead of subsidy expiry followed a dismal second quarter, when new EV sales declined by 6.3% year on year, according to Cox Automotive, which said the growth trajectory for EVs “has been curbed.” The end of subsidies threatens the EV industry’s profitability, with Ford, GM, and Stellantis all losing money on electric models. BloombergNEF says 14 million fewer EVs could be sold by 2030 under current policies. “Demand has grown more slowly than expected, and that’s likely to continue given the elimination of consumer incentives and regulatory changes,” said James Cain, executive director for finance and sales communications at GM, quoted by Rob Wile, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist at NBC News. He notes that even before Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” ended the EV subsidy, signs of EV fatigue among US consumers had begun to show: A survey published in August 2024 by Edmunds automotive information group showed concerns about finding charging stations and charging times, availability and reliability as the top reasons consumers would not purchase EVs… Ford CEO Jim Farley said this month that EV sales could fall by around 50% after the EV tax credits expire… The entire U.S. auto market also remains challenged by affordability issues. The average price of a new car surpassed $50,000 for the first time last month, Kelley Blue Book reported Tuesday… EVs currently cost about $7,000 more, according to Kelley Blue Book data. In a recent article, RBC Capital Markets argued the EV slowdown in the US is mainly driven by the wide price gap between new and used EVs, with more buyers incentivized to choose used cars over newer models. “There's a lot of attention on the culture wars and range anxiety, but what we think is really happening is used EV prices have come down so much that consumers in the U.S. are essentially not buying new EVs,” says Tom Narayan, lead equity analyst for Global Autos, RBC Capital Markets. Used battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are now priced at around USD$30,000, making them price-equivalent to used internal combustion engine (ICE) cars. Narayan says US tariffs could force EV makers to raise prices on new vehicles, expanding the gap between the prices of new versus used EVs. RBC has cut its 2030 forecast for EV adoption in the US in half, from 35 percent to 17 percent, saying that the main constraint is the lack of public charging infrastructure — especially fast Level 3 chargers. According to consulting firm EY’s September 2025 “EY Mobility Lens Forecaster,” an AI-powered modeling tool developed to predict electric vehicle adoption timelines in the key US, China and EU markets through 2050, via Wards Auto, the timeline to reach 50% EV adoption won’t happen now until 2039 — five years later than previously forecast. The forecasting model found that Elimination of buyer incentives combined with regulatory uncertainty is expected to slow domestic electric vehicle adoption as the technology advances in other global markets. Indeed, the US EV slowdown has not been duplicated in Europe and China. While EV penetration forecasts in Europe have dropped from 50 percent to 40 percent, unlike in the United States, regulatory mandates require a certain share of EV sales. China continues to lead the EV race with a major cost advantage in battery production and market penetration rates two to three times higher than in the US, according to RBC. In September, global EV sales reached 2.1 million, hitting a monthly record. China alone accounted for 1.3 million sales. By Andrew Topf for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com: SLB Exceeds Profit Expectations on Strong North American Demand India Rejects U.S. Claims of Halving Russian Oil Imports Citi Makes a Case for $50 Oil
