Copyright Newsweek
The rate of obesity in America has been slowly declining in recent years, according to new data released by the polling organization Gallup. After having peaked with a prevalence rate of almost 40 percent in 2022, the rate of obesity in the U.S. is now 37 percent. Although at the same time, diagnoses of diabetes have been on the rise, reaching an all-time high this year at 13.8 percent. Why It Matters A person is considered obese if their Body Mass Index (BMI)—a measure calculated by taking a person's weight and height—is over 30, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). As obesity is associated with a number of health conditions, such as type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease and stroke, it is of great concern in the country. There are many factors that make someone more at risk of becoming obese, such as a lack of physical activity, unhealthy eating patterns, poor quality sleep, stress, environmental factors, certain health conditions and medications, as well as genetics. Health Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr has been vocal in his concern about the prevalence of obesity in the country, and has made tackling chronic disease and diet a key focus of his 'Make America Healthy Again' campaign. What To Know Gallup's data, collected as part of its ongoing Gallup National Health and Well-Being Index and shared on October 28, show that between 2008 and 2022, the rate of obesity in the country increased from 25.5 percent to 39.9 percent. Between 2022 and 2025, there was a gradual decrease. This coincides with an uptick in the number of Americans using weight loss drugs, known as Type 2 antidiabetic GLP-1 drugs with brand names like Ozempic and Wegovy, between 2024 and 2025. There was a 7 percentage point increase in the number of Americans reporting having used an injection for weight loss in that time frame, according to Gallup's data. Use of these drugs was higher among women than men, and the obesity rate for women has declined slightly more than the rate for men since 2022. This could suggest these drugs are having some impact on obesity rates; however, they may not be having the notable impact many believe them to have, some experts told Newsweek. Is the Decline Entirely Due to GLP-1s? GLP-1 drugs work by lowering blood sugar levels and are typically used to treat those with type 2 diabetes, but more recently have also been used for weight loss and obesity. They have become increasingly popular because of their notable impact on a person's ability to drop weight. "I think that the combination of greater awareness of obesity as a medical problem and the availability of highly effective weight loss therapies like the GLP-1 drugs are combining to stem the tide of obesity," Dr. John Buse, a professor of medicine at the University of North Carolina, told Newsweek. As a result, going forward, Buse said that he thought "these trends will continue as the impact is enormous on the health and well-being of those with overweight and obesity as well as society." However, not all experts are in agreement. "I doubt that the decrease in prevalence seen is due to use of GLP1s," Caroline Apovian, a professor of medicine and co-director of the Center for Weight Management and Wellness at Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, told Newsweek. That said, she added that there would be a notable decrease in obesity rates if these drugs were made "affordable." The number of Americans on GLP-1 drugs is "likely no more than 3-5 percent of those who are eligible," Apovian said, meaning those who have a BMI over 30 or over 27 if they have certain health complications. She added that data also shows that many of those who take GLP-1 drugs stop using them after six to nine months, "likely due to expense or side effects or perceived lack of efficacy." Apovian also said that the fact that BMI among those over 60 is "still rising in the U.S." tells us that "genetics and environment are crucial." She said the decline in obesity rates, therefore, may not be down to the rise in GLP-1s, but instead that "we got to the pinnacle of genetics and environment driving up obesity rates and now we cannot go any higher - except in those with strong genetics favoring weight gain." Dr. Jamy Ard, a professor of epidemiology and prevention and public health sciences at Wake Forest University, North Carolina, told Newsweek that he also believed it is "unlikely" that the change in obesity prevalence is related to the use of GLP-1 drugs. While usage of these drugs is increasing, "the duration of time and overall reach of these medications is not likely broad enough to explain a change in obesity rates," he said. He said that also, while most people have "great results with treatment," such as more than 10 percent weight loss, this is "often not sufficient to get most people to a normal BMI, which is what would be required to lower obesity levels." "We have done nothing substantial to slow the number of people who are gaining excess weight in our obesogenic environment," he said. "This is going to be the most powerful way to reduce obesity rates." Why Is Diabetes Still on the Rise? While obesity rates have decreased in the past few years, according to Gallup's data, the rate of diabetes is still on the rise. "I think diabetes is continuing to increase because obesity rates and the severity of obesity are still increasing," Ard said. He said that National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data has shown "consistently over the past several cycles that more individuals are continuing to reach BMIs of 40 or greater," which he said will "drive the rates of obesity related complications—and type 2 diabetes is one of those." Buse said diabetes trends may also be "less impacted in the near term as the people who develop diabetes are more often unable to afford GLP-1 based therapies." However, he said that there are still "some people who are not developing diabetes because they are treated with GLP-1 therapies before they develop diabetes, and then some people who are living longer with diabetes benefitting from GLP-1 therapies." Going forward, he said he thought there may be "an increase in diagnoses of diabetes as GLP-1 therapy is generally covered by insurance companies for people with diabetes and not covered for people without diabetes, creating an incentive to make the diagnosis sooner." Ard said that "until we tackle the root causes of the obesity epidemic, we will continue to see increases in diabetes prevalence," as efforts made to treat obesity earlier can prevent diabetes. "This would require a significant change in our health care systems and models of care. Prevention of disease is not currently an objective nor is it rewarded," he said. Full Interview Below Newsweek's interview with Dr. Jamy Ard, a professor of epidemiology and prevention, and public health sciences at Wake Forest University, North Carolina. Q1: Do you think the decrease in obesity levels is directly linked to the rise in GLP-1 drugs? "I think it is unlikely that the change in obesity prevalence is related to use of GLP-1 drugs for a few reasons. First, while usage is increasing, the duration of time and overall reach of these medications is not likely broad enough to explain a change in obesity rates. Second, while most people have great results with treatment (i.e., more than 10 percent weight loss), this is often not sufficient to get most people to a normal BMI, which is what would be required to lower obesity levels. Third, we have done nothing substantial to slow the number of people who are gaining excess weight in our obesogenic environment. This is going to be the most powerful way to reduce obesity rates." Q2: Are there any other factors at play, and if so what are they? "We’ve seen this pattern before in more reliable data sources. For example, the NHANES study where people are actually examined and weight is measured has shown cycles of “leveling off” or decreases in obesity prevalence every few years. No one can explain why this happens, but the following cycles, we’ve seen further increases." Q3: Why do you think diabetes diagnoses has reached an all-time high at the same time? "I think diabetes is continuing to increase because obesity rates and the severity of obesity are still increasing. NHANES data has shown consistently over the past several cycles that more individuals are continuing to reach BMIs of 40 or greater. This will drive the rates of obesity related complications—and type 2 diabetes is one of those." Q4: How do you expect the trend in diabetes diagnoses to change going forward? "In my estimation, until we tackle the root causes of the obesity epidemic, we will continue to see increases in diabetes prevalence. Alternatively, we can make concerted efforts to treat obesity earlier with the goal of preventing diabetes. This would require a significant change in our health care systems and models of care. Prevention of disease is not currently an objective nor is it rewarded."
