By Andrew Stanton

Copyright newsweek

Representative Wesley Hunt, a Texas Republican, trailed Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton in a new poll of the Texas GOP Senate primary.Newsweek reached out to spokespersons for Hunt and Paxton for comment via email. A spokesperson for Cornyn declined to comment.Why It MattersHunt, a two-term congressman representing areas near Houston, has not formally announced a campaign but has been speculated to be a potential candidate.Cornyn, a longtime incumbent in the Lone Star State, is already facing a primary challenge from Paxton, who has cast himself as more aligned with the politics of President Donald Trump. Polls suggest Cornyn could be vulnerable, but the race could still be shaken up if Hunt decides to join the race.The Texas Senate race is considered potentially competitive, depending on the outcome of the primary. Polls suggest Paxton would be more vulnerable in the general election, though the race would still be an uphill battle for Democrats, who haven’t won statewide in decades. But Democrats are hoping to make the race competitive, as they’ll need to win two Senate races in double-digit Trump seats to win a majority.What To KnowPunchbowl News reported on Thursday that a pro-Hunt group conducted a poll of how the representative may fare in the GOP primary.The internal poll found that 38 percent of respondents said they would vote for Paxton, while 28 percent would vote for Cornyn and 23 percent for Hunt. In a two-way race, Hunt led Paxton with 39 percent to 38 percent and Cornyn by 46 percent to 37 percent, according to Punchbowl News.Neither Cornyn nor Paxton has indicated they would exit the race.The poll surveyed 842 GOP primary voters from September 14 to September 16.A Texas GOP consultant told Newsweek that they believe Hunt is the only potential candidate who can win both the primary and general elections without support from the national party.Other polls have similarly found that Hunt would trail Cornyn and Paxton in a three-way race.A Texas Southern University poll, conducted from August 6 to August 12, 2025, surveyed 1,500 likely voters and found that 35 percent of respondents would vote for Paxton, 30 percent would vote for Cornyn, and 22 percent would support Hunt.A Quantus Insights poll from May found that 46 percent of Republicans were leaning toward Paxton, 38 percent were planning to back Cornyn, and 16 percent would support Hunt if he runs.The poll surveyed 600 registered voters in Texas from May 11 to May 13, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.The Associated Press reported in April that Hunt met with the White House about a potential Senate bid.On the Democratic side, former Representative Colin Allred, who ran in 2024, and state Representative James Talarico are running for their party’s nomination.Polls have shown that Cornyn may be in a stronger position than Paxton in the general election. A poll from YouGov and Texas Southern University from May found that Cornyn would lead Allred by four points (48 percent to 44 percent), while Paxton would lead by two points (48 percent to 46 percent).The poll also found that Hunt led Allred by three points (47 percent to 44 percent). The survey was conducted among 1,200 registered voters in Texas from May 9 to May 19, 2025.Meanwhile, a survey conducted by GOP pollster Brad Parscale showed Paxton trailing Allred in a hypothetical matchup. It found that 52 percent of voters would likely vote for Allred to 37 percent for Paxton. It surveyed 1,000 likely voters in mid-April.What People Are SayingThe National Republican Congressional Committee, which is supporting Cornyn, wrote in a memo reported by The Hill’s Julia Manchester: “As we have said from the beginning, for Republicans to win, resources and focus must remain on reelecting Senator Cornyn and protecting our Senate Majority. The path forward is clear: Wesley Hunt must stop wasting donor resources on Senate posturing, run for reelection in his new district, and help President Trump win the five additional seats in Texas that are critical to maintaining the Republican majority in the U.S. House.”Shelby Williams, the former GOP chair in Collin County, told The Texas Tribune: “Realistically speaking, unless [Hunt] can vault himself to the level of name recognition statewide that both General Paxton and Senator Cornyn have, then he’s not going to win the primary.”What Happens NextThe Cook Political Report classifies the race as Likely Republican, meaning it is “not considered competitive at this point” but has “the potential to become engaged.”Sabato’s Crystal Ball also lists the race as Likely Republican.The primary will be held on March 3, 2026.