Copyright Athlon Sports
The AFC has been the NFL’s dominant conference for years. For a while it was Tom Brady and Peyton Manning leading the way. More recently it’s been Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. It seemed for a while that the NFC was turning things around in 2025. Through the first seven weeks of the season, NFC teams were 25-13 vs. AFC teams. In Week 8, however, AFC teams went 7-1. Not only that — they were 7-1 against the spread. There are only two interconference games this week: Atlanta Falcons at the red-hot New England Patriots and Chicago Bears at the Cincinnati Bengals. Now that the NFC’s overall record vs. the AFC this season is 26-20, let’s see if the AFC momentum continues. Another trend we like to track: What happens when there’s a consensus among all five of Athlon Sports’ experts? Last week, we went 1-2 on such picks — losing with the Bengals and Falcons, winning with the Buccaneers. This week, we have four consensus picks: Baltimore Ravens over Miami Dolphins on Thursday; Indianapolis Colts over Pittsburgh Steelers; Detroit Lions over Minnesota Vikings; and Los Angeles Rams over New Orleans Saints. Here’s a look at Athlon Sports’ staff picks for Week 9 games: Ravens -7.5 at Dolphins The NFL world has been waiting for the Ravens to wake up and be the Ravens again after an atrocious sTart. Did last week’s win over the Bears light that fire? Maybe, but one thing to note about the Dolphins: Despite the 2-6 record straight up, Miami is 4-2 against the spread in its last six games. Ravens: Luke Easterling, Craig Ellenport, Doug Farrar Andrew Perloff, Kyle Wood Dolphins: — Falcons +5.5 at Patriots It’s hard to believe that Patriots QB Drake Maye was sacked six times last week (five by Myles Garrett), yet won so easily. That had more to do with Cleveland’s ineffective offense. On paper, Atlanta has the offensive firepower to make this a close game, but inconsistency has been the issue for the Falcons. Falcons: Ellenport Patriots: Easterling, Farrar, Perloff, Wood Panthers +12.5 at Packers Green Bay has won three straight and currently stands as the No. 1 seed i the NFC. One word of caution here, especially with a double-digit spread: The Packers have been favorites in every game so far this season — but when favored by more than three points, they are 0-4 against the spread. Panthers: Ellenport Packers: Easterling, Farrar, Perloff, Wood Broncos -1.5 at Texans It’s true, the Houston Texans have won three of their last four games and own the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense. Perhaps that’s why this line is as low as it is. For their part, the Denver Broncos have averaged more than 27 points per game in the six games they’ve played on U.S. soil (let’s toss out the ugly 13-11 win over the Jets in London). Houston meanwhile, has failed to reach 27 points in six of its seven games. Broncos: Easterling, Farrar, Wood Texans: Ellenport, Perloff Chargers -10.5 at Titans This is the third-biggest spread of the week, but 10.5 points is not very daunting against this Titans squad. Tennessee has lost three straight games by an average of 17.3 points. Only concern here: The Chargers are 0-2 against the spread in their last two road games, an outright loss to the Giants and a two-point win over the Dolphins. Chargers: Easterling, Perloff, Wood Titans: Ellenport, Farrar Bears -2.5 at Bengals Amazingly, the Bengals would have been a half-game out of first place in the AFC North if they didn’t choke against the previously winless Jets. But they did. And that’s why they are home underdogs this week against a Bears defense that made Tyler Huntley look like Lamar Jackson last week. Bears: Easterling, Farrar, Perloff, Wood Bengals: Ellenport Colts -3 at Steelers Last week, the Colts were heavy favorites over the Titans. We pointed out that there was a huge difference in their red zone plus/minus rankings, and Indy then covered a big spread. Well, there’s another big discrepancy here: The Colts are still No. 1 in red zone plus/minus at +84, while the Steelers are tied for 23rd at -24. And yet it’s not a big spread… Colts: Luke Easterling, Craig Ellenport, Doug Farrar Andrew Perloff, Kyle Wood Steelers: — 49ers -2.5 at Giants Did you get Tyrone Tracy on your fantasy football waiver wire? Tracy was in big demand this week following the devastating injury to Giants rookie running back Cam Skattebo. While Tracy may or may not be productive for the Giants, we know the 49ers have a major weapon in Christian McCaffrey, who gets a Giants defense that couldn’t stop Saquon Barkley last week. 49ers: Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar, Wood Giants: Perloff Vikings +8.5 at Lions We’ll see if J.J. McCarthy can step in and pump up the Vikings offense now that he’s back from injury, but the bigger concern is Minnesota’s defense. Brian Flores’ unit has allowed a total of 65 points in the last two weeks and now faces a potent Lions attack that scored 31 on the Vikings in each of their two matchups last season. Vikings: — Lions: Luke Easterling, Craig Ellenport, Doug Farrar Andrew Perloff, Kyle Wood Saints +13.5 at Rams Tyler Shough vs. Matthew Stafford. That about sums it up, right? If you’re looking for a reason to take the underdog, maybe you think the Rams might be looking ahead to next week’s game at San Francisco. Maybe, but… Saints: — Rams: Luke Easterling, Craig Ellenport, Doug Farrar Andrew Perloff, Kyle Wood Jaguars -3 at Raiders Looking back, the 2-5 Las Vegas Raiders’ Week 1 victory over the 6-2 New England Patriots now looks like one of the most surprising results the season. The Raiders are 0-4 against teams with a winning record. But the Jaguars have lost two straight, and Vegas has the edge in coaching experience: 74-year-old Pete Carroll vs. 39-year-old rookie head coach Liam Coen. Jaguars: Easterling, Farrar Raiders: Ellenport, Perloff, Wood Chiefs -1.5 at Bills It’s another classic Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen battle. And while the Chiefs have won three in a row and seem to have their mojo back, history is not on their side: Since 2021, the Bills are 4-0 against the Chiefs in the regular season. Then again, they are 0-3 since 2020 vs. Kansas City when it counts the most — in the AFC title game. As we said, a classic battle. Chiefs: Easterling, Farrar Bills: Ellenport, Perloff, Wood Seahawks -3.5 at Commanders The Seahawks have won five of their last six and sit atop the very competitive NFC West. The Commanders have missed star QB Jayden Daniels but have also struggled because the defense has allowed 24 or more points in six of their eight games. This could be another prime-time moment for Seattle receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who leads the NFL in receiving yards per game. Seahawks: Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar, Wood Commanders: Perloff Cardinals +3 at Cowboys It’s clear that with the Cowboys, it’s the over/under and not the pointspread we should be looking at. With a high-scoring offense and a Swiss cheese defense, Dallas has hit the over in five straight games and six of eight on the season. The total for this one is 54. The “Monday Night Football” crew would be happy if the game at least comes close to that number. Cardinals: Perloff Cowboys: Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar, Wood
