Copyright Athlon Sports
Key Points Only three Week 10 NFL teams favored by more than a touchdown; no double-digit favorites. Four games feature both teams with winning records; most games pair winning teams vs. losing teams.. Athlon Sports staff picks highlight key matchups, betting insights, and team trends for each game. Week 10 of the NFL season features just three teams that are favored by more than a touchdown — and no teams that are double-digit favorites. Does that mean we should expect a bunch of close games? Not necessarily, but you never know. It is a bit surprising that there aren’t more big pointspreads. Out of 14 games on the Week 10 schedule, there are only four in which both teams have winning records: New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers There’s only one game that pits two losing records against each other — a potentially brutal matchup between the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets. That means there are nine games where a team with a winning (or .500) record is facing a sub-.500 team. In some of those games, the records shouldn’t matter — the 3-5 Baltimore Ravens are favored on the road vs. the 4-4 Minnesota Vikings, for example. But Raiders-Broncos? Giants-Bears? Bills-Dolphins? Lions-Commanders? Seems at least a few of those contests could be blowouts. Here’s a look at Athlon Sports’ staff picks for Week 10 games: Raiders +9.5 at Broncos Sure, 9.5 points is a lot for s division game, but the Raiders have lost three straight road games by a combined score of 112-30. With such an emphasis on strong line play on both sides of the ball, Denver is in great shape: The Broncos lead the NFL with 40 sacks and have allowed just nine. That’s the biggest differential in the league between sacks and sacks allowed. Raiders: Kyle Wood Broncos: Luke Easterling, Craig Ellenport, Doug Farrar Andrew Perloff Falcons +6.5 vs. Colts Despite the loss at Pittsburgh last week, the Colts are 6-3 against the spread this season. After allowing only nine sacks in their first eight games, the Colts allowed five sacks against the Steelers. The Falcons have a solid pass rush, so the key here will be whether or not the Indy offensive line gets back on track. Falcons: Ellenport, Perloff Colts: Easterling, Farrar, Wood Jaguars +1.5 at Texans Seven days after Jakobi Meyers caught four passes for 23 yards against the Jaguars, he’ll suit up for Jacksonville. But maybe it was defense the Jaguars should have traded for — after allowing an average of 17 points in their first three games of the season, the Jaguars have allowed an average of almost 27 points in their last five. Jaguars: Easterling, Farrar, Wood Texans: Ellenport, Perloff Giants +3.5 at Bears Doesn’t it feel like this line should be higher? The Bears have won five of their last six while the Giants are 2-7. What’s more, the Giants have only covered the spread in one of those seven losses. It’s possible Vegas thinks the Bears might have a letdown after that crazy finish in last weeks’ win over the Bengals. Giants: Ellenport Bears: Easterling, Farrar, , Perloff, Wood Ravens -4.5 at Vikings A Week 8 home win over the Bears (with Tyler Huntley at quarterback) was nice for Baltimore, but it seems odd that everyone’s ready to proclaim then as being back in the playoff mix after a win over the hapless Miami Dolphins. Sure, Lamar Jackson is back healthy, but the key is whether the defense has been fixed. So far, so good: The Ravens have allowed an average of 13 points in their last three games; they allowed over 35 per game through the first five. Ravens: Easterling, Farrar, , Perloff, Wood Vikings: Ellenport Browns +1.5 at Jets It’s easy to think the Jets will be flat after seeing two of their best players traded for the sake of a full-blown rebuilding plan. But consider this: If Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams were expendable, then nobody is guaranteed to be with this team next season. In other words, the Jets players are now playing for their NFL futures. Browns: Easterling, Farrar, , Perloff Jets: Ellenport, Wood Saints +5.5 at Panthers This is the highest the Panthers have been favored in a game since Week 3 of the 2021 season when they were 9-point favorites against the Houston Texans (which they covered, by the way). This season, Carolina has won four straight vs. teams that currently have a losing record; their only loss in such games was a Week 2 loss at Arizona. Saints: — Panthers: Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar, Perloff, Wood Bills -9.5 at Dolphins The Bills were 11-point favorites when they beat Miami by 10, 31-21, in Week 3. Yes, this game is in Miami, but the Dolphins are much worse than they were seven weeks ago, and Buffalo is not likely to let down while they still trail the Patriots in the AFC East. Certainly seems like this should have been a double-digit spread. Bills: Easterling, Ellenport, Perloff Dolphins: Farrar, Wood Patriots +2.5 at Buccaneers It’s May Day — Drake Maye vs. Baker Mayfield. This game will tell us a lot about the Patriots. While it’s true they’ve had a pretty easy schedule thus far — only two of their seven wins are against teams that currently have a winning record — this Drake Maye stat is impressive: The second-year pro is just the fourth player in NFL history to post eight straight games with at least 200 yards passing and a QB rating of 100 or higher. What’s really impressive: The only other QBs to pull off that feat are Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Patriots: Perloff, Wood Buccaneers: Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar Cardinals +6.5 at Seahawks The 6-2 Seahawks needed a last-second 52-yard field goal to defeat the 3-5 Cardinals in Week 4 The Seahawks were only a 1-point favorite in that game, so they did cover. The gritty Cardinals, meanwhile, do play well against good teams. In five games against teams that currently have a winning record, they are 4-1 against the spread. Cardinals: Perloff Seahawks: Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar, Wood Rams -3.5 at 49ers Since tiebreakers in the competitive NFC West will be crucial, this game means more to the Rams. They already lost to the 49ers in Week 5, when Christian McCaffrey had eight receptions and went for 159 scrimmage yards. CMC deserves some MVP consideration for carrying an injury-riddled 49ers offense. But so does Rams QB Matthew Stafford, who has nine TD passes in his last two games and leads the NFL with 21 TD strikes. Rams: Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar, Perloff, Wood 49ers: — Lions -8.5 at Commanders A lot has changed since the Commanders shocked the Lions in the playoffs last season. Plus, the Lions are coming off a loss to the Vikings last week — and they haven’t lost two in a row since midway through the 2022 season. And since then, they have followed their last 12 losses with 12 wins by an average margin of 16.6 points. In other words, Dan Campbell’s Lions are nasty the week after losing. Lions: Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar, , Perloff, Wood Commanders: — Steelers +3 at Chargers Think the NFL knew Aaron Rodgers was about to sign with the Steelers when they finalized the 2025 schedule? This is Pittsburgh’s third prime-time game in the last four weeks. And good for the Steelers, Rodgers is the league’s all-time leader in prime-time TD passes with 166. Steelers: Ellenport, Farrar Chargers: Easterling, Perloff, Wood Eagles +2.5 at Packers It’s the Tush Push Game — Green Bay led the charge this offseason in an attempt to outlaw the Tush Push. For that reason alone, there’s a good chance Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni has had this game circled on the calendar. Jalen Hurts scoring an anytime touchdown in this game might be the safest bet of the week. Eagles: Packers:
