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Want a unique Fed rate cut trade? Try shares of boat and RV makers

Want a unique Fed rate cut trade? Try shares of boat and RV makers

Investors should consider investing in powersports and RV stocks in the event that the Federal Reserve cuts the federal funds rate at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, according to Citi. “Powersports/leisure vehicles have far and away been the biggest victims of the ‘higher-for-longer’ rate regime, and stand to gain the most in a falling rate environment,” analyst James Hardiman wrote in a note dated Tuesday. The analyst added that RV names like Thor Industries , Winnebago Industries and Camping World Holdings as well as boat names such as Brunswick Corp and MarineMax are “companies perceived to be the most direct ways to play the rate-cut trade, a perception that we agree with in so far as we see meaningful movement in long rates (esp. the 10-year) and not just the Fed Funds rate.” Among those names, Thor and Brunswick are standouts, Hardiman said, as they’ve respectively soared more than 24% and more than 20% in the last three months on the view that they’re “strong rate proxies.” The S & P 500 , by comparison, has jumped more than 10% in that timeframe. THO BC 3M mountain THO vs. BC, 3-month This comes after powersports were key movers in the rate trade in 2024. In the leadup to the Fed’s half-point rate cut in September of that year, RV and boat names were up between 4% and 32%, more than the S & P 500’s 3% gain at that time, the analyst noted. However, he also said that when that cut didn’t lead to reductions in the 10-year Treasury yield , the stocks sold off, dropping to between 3% and 13% in the three months after the cut compared to the 7% rise in the S & P in that period. So watching the reaction in the 10-year yield this afternoon will be key. While Hardiman anticipates five consecutive quarter percentage point cuts from the Fed starting Wednesday, the year-end view for the benchmark 10-year yield is that it will be up 5 basis points by that time. With that, he said that Camping World Holdings and MarineMax are the most direct beneficiaries of reductions in short-term rates, based on “wholesale financing exposure, while also being names that don’t appear to have been bid up in anticipation of this week’s news.”