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Mumbai: Shares of Vodafone Idea Ltd surged up to 10% in Monday’s afternoon trade, climbing above ₹10.50 per share — the highest level since September 2024 — after the Supreme Court allowed the government to reassess the company’s adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues. The ruling has reignited investor hopes for a turnaround in the debt-laden telecom operator. Supreme Court allows review of AGR demand The apex court’s order came in response to Vodafone Idea’s petition challenging the Department of Telecommunications’ (DoT) demand for an additional ₹9,450 crore in AGR dues. The bench observed that the matter involves policy considerations and granted the Union government permission to revisit the dues calculation. Earlier this year, the government became Vodafone Idea’s largest shareholder, holding a 49% equity stake through a debt-to-equity conversion aimed at stabilising the company’s finances. Market analysts said the court’s green light for a review of the dues represents an important reprieve for the cash-strapped telco. Experts see relief but urge caution According to Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVAsset PMS, the Supreme Court’s decision marks a “key turning point” for Vodafone Idea. “It signals stronger policy intent and lowers the bankruptcy risk that once loomed large over the telecom major. However, the fine print — including how much of the dues will be deferred, waived, or converted into equity — remains unknown,” he said. Similarly, Kranthi Bathini, Director at Wealthmills Securities, said the judgment provides psychological relief to investors but does not resolve Vodafone Idea’s operational challenges. “The SC order is a booster for shareholders, but the company still faces fundamental problems — a shrinking subscriber base and stagnant average revenue per user (ARPU),” Bathini noted. As per the latest TRAI data, Vodafone Idea lost around 3.09 lakh subscribers in August 2025, extending its trend of monthly customer erosion. Financial pressure persists Despite the temporary rally, analysts warn that the company’s AGR dues remain over ₹76,000 crore, alongside mounting debt obligations. The firm has been struggling to raise fresh capital, with its financial health continuing to depend on tariff hikes, subscriber retention, and government relief measures. Dasani added that the market’s enthusiasm could cool down once the excitement over the court ruling subsides. “The rally could moderate once the initial euphoria fades. Until we see concrete movement on debt restructuring or capital infusion, the stock remains highly speculative,” he said. Trading strategy and outlook Vodafone Idea continues to be viewed as a high-beta, event-driven stock rather than a stable long-term investment. Dasani advised short-term traders to take advantage of market volatility while maintaining tight stop-loss levels, given the uncertainty surrounding the company’s fundamentals. “Conservative investors should stay on the sidelines until there’s visible progress on debt reduction, equity funding, and subscriber growth,” he said. Bathini echoed similar views, calling Vodafone Idea a potential “high-risk, high-reward” opportunity for traders rather than long-term investors. Road ahead for Vodafone Idea The Supreme Court’s order is expected to enable the Centre and DoT to explore restructuring options for AGR liabilities, possibly through staggered payments, waivers, or equity conversion. Such a move could improve Vodafone Idea’s balance sheet and help the company attract fresh investment. Still, analysts agree that the telco’s revival story hinges on its ability to raise capital and improve operational performance amid fierce competition from Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel. Until then, Vodafone Idea’s stock is likely to remain volatile, reacting to regulatory updates and funding developments.
