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On opposite sides of a strategic argument that is killing people and shaping the world, that could undermine European cohesion in the face of Russian aggression, a meeting between Donald Trump and Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban should be an incendiary moment. But the cold water of their mutual admiration for Vladimir Putin means that no fireworks can ignite in the Oval Office. Orban’s been in power longer than the 47th President of the US. But he has the same authoritarian instincts. Like Trump, he has undermined the judiciary, his cronies have captured much of Hungary’s media and they enjoy preferential treatment in business. His problem is that Hungary, along with Slovenia and Czechia, relies heavily on fuel imports from Russia. Mostly through these countries, the European Union has spent €260 billion on Russian fuel since Putin ordered the full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. That is €10 billion more than the EU has sent in arms and cash to Kyiv over the same time period. Trump, who has empowered Putin’s military campaign by ending military and financial aid to Ukraine, has brushed off criticism about his pro-Kremlin policies because he has been able to point to the hypocrisy of the EU’s stance. Brussels has imposed sanctions on Russia’s fuel exports but these exclude supplies running to Hungary, Slovenia and Czechia. Hungary has a 15 year contract for gas supply from Russia Gazprom which was signed in September 2021. The EU and Orban do not get along. In 2018, the European Parliament triggered Article 7 proceedings against Hungary. This means that Brussels could suspend Hungary's voting rights within the bloc because of Orban’s judicial interference, corruption risks, media capture and intimidation of civil society. This month, the EU’s parliament civil rights committee said democratic backsliding in Hungary now meant that Budapest should face sanctions. The EU is already withholding €6.3 billion in EU funds to Hungary while demanding that Orban loosen his grip on democracy in his country ahead of elections next year. In addition, Putin and Trump were supposed to meet in Budapest for ceasefire talks about Ukraine last month. These talks, which excluded Ukraine itself, were cancelled amid widespread condemnation of the invitation from Orban to Putin, who has been indicted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes. Yet it wasn’t long ago that Trump met Putin on US soil in Alaska and frequently meets Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, who is also under ICC indictment. “All diplomatic negotiations are hard, but I expect a friendly and easy negotiation,” Orban told Hungarian state news media ahead of the planned Putin meeting. Talking to state news agency MTI on his flight to Washington this week, Orban called the topic of energy sanctions “serious” and said that “stakes were high,” although he did not expect the talks with Trump on this topic to be difficult. “I know the [US] president, he knows me, we know the subject, we simply have to reach an agreement,” he added. What that “agreement” may be is unclear and the White House kept it vague: “The American people can expect more good deals out of Prime Minister Orban’s visit spanning various industries.” Trump has imposed sanctions on India for importing Russian oil and has threatened the same against other nations. Orban will be keen to keep Hungary off Trump’s list. He can be confident that Trump will do nothing to undermine him. Forcing Hungary to stop importing Russian fuel is not, really, a card that Trump will play. They agree on too much. In December 2023, Hungary vetoed €50 billion in EU aid for Ukraine - reluctantly agreeing to allow the package through three months later. Orban has echoed Kremlin talking points on Ukraine and referred to it as “no-man’s land” and that it should be seen as a “buffer” between Nato and Russia. He insists that EU sanctions do not work against the Kremlin and has demanded an immediate ceasefire, saying that Ukraine cannot win. These are views that Trump shares. The meeting of minds on the Oval Office can only be bad for Europe, Ukraine and the wider west. And very good for the Kremlin.
