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One of the most difficult things about Fantasy sports is dropping or trading a player only to see that player break out once he lands on another team. It's Fantasy regret and it's real! Now imagine dealing with the real-life regret of letting go of not one but TWO players who are dominating at the most important position in sports. That's painful. The phrase, "Fool me once, shame you, fool me twice, shame on me," comes to mind. You might be able to chalk up one loss to bad luck, but two? That's tough to explain. That's what the Vikings are dealing with after Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold were both on their roster last year and signed with the Colts and Seahawks, respectively, for relatively cheap deals this offseason. Plus, Minnesota is dealing with its own quarterback struggles, and you really have to question how they handled J.J. McCarthy and Carson Wentz injuries. Agent's Take: Did the Vikings miscalculate their quarterback decisions by going all in on J.J. McCarthy? Joel Corry You couldn't have scripted a worse situation for the Vikings -- and now they're on the verge of making the wrong kind of history. Minnesota could become the first team in NFL history to lose two quarterbacks in the same offseason who both go on to start playoff games the following year. No team has ever lost two quarterbacks in one offseason who each made the Pro Bowl the next season, either. Both are good bets to happen this year, as the Vikings' loss is the Colts' and Seahawks' gain. I gotta be honest, I wrote Jones off after he left the Giants and I wrote off Darnold after consecutive clunkers to end last season. So how on earth are both thriving in new homes? Daniel Jones is doing more than you think The 7-1 Colts are averaging the most points per drive (3.46) by any team in a season since 2000. The next three teams on the list all featured quarterbacks who won the MVP that year. The 2007 Patriots (Tom Brady), 2018 Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes) and 2020 Packers (Aaron Rodgers). But how much of that is because of Jones? He has a potential Hall of Fame running back in Jonathan Taylor, a great rookie weapon in Tyler Warren, a solid offensive line and a good play caller in Shane Steichen. Is he a game manager or is he elevating the team around him? I say "Indiana Jones" deserves some credit for elevating the offense, too. How are the Colts sustaining drives to keep up this historic scoring pace? Jones is keeping the chains moving with some of the most efficient third-down plays ever. He is currently the only quarterback over the last 45 seasons to have a completion rate of 75% and at least 10 yards per pass attempt on third down. The only other quarterbacks who came close to that efficiency for a full season were Steve Young in 1994 (won MVP and Super Bowl MVP), Kurt Warner in 1999 (won MVP and Super Bowl MVP), plus Joe Burrow in 2021 (made Super Bowl). They used to call him "Danny Dimes" for a reason. He isn't exactly the captain of the checkdowns. He's 21 for 30 passing for 408 yards on third down throws to the sticks this year, the best completion rate (70%) and yards per attempt mark (13.6) in the league. Jones has also stepped up when pressured. He leads the NFL in EPA per dropback under pressure this year, after being one of the worst in those spots with the Giants. Only 10% of his pressures are turning into sacks, the second-lowest rate in the league. Taylor and Co. have definitely helped, too, don't get me wrong. The Colts are first in rush EPA and rush success rate this year and Jones leads the NFL in pass yards off play action (808). All I'm saying is that Jones' play in critical third-down situations and while under pressure suggests this start is no fluke, and he deserves a lot of credit. Less is more with Sam Darnold I half expected Sam Darnold to pick up right where he left off in Minnesota, but so far, he hasn't carried the stink of his final two games there to Seattle. In fact, it's like they never happened. Credit the Seahawks for not asking him to do too much for now. He has the lowest dropback rate in the entire NFL (52%) but also leads the NFL in yards per dropback (8.6). That's the definition of quality over quantity. As you can see from the chart below, which maps out every qualified quarterback season in the last 15 years, it's a really rare combination. He's the only quarterback in the last 15 seasons to lead the NFL in yards per dropback while posting the lowest dropback rate. The last two quarterbacks to be even close there was Brock Purdy in 2023 and Jimmy Garoppolo in 2021, both with the 49ers. That's not the best company if you're looking to ride Darnold to a Super Bowl, but hey, the Seahawks' formula is working right now. They aren't putting too much on his shoulders, yet. He leads the NFL in yards per attempt on play action (13.7) and against at least eight defenders in the box (12.7), something Seattle has faced more than any other team in the NFL (40%). The Seahawks' run game has been very inefficient so far, but establishing the ground game has taken the pressure off Darnold. He's picked up right where he left off last year with his deep ball. He leads the NFL in explosive pass rate (20%) and he gets the lowest rate of his pass yards from YAC (35%) in the entire NFL. In other words, when he does pass, he's doing the heavy lifting. He is 17 for 29 passing 20+ air yards this year, tied for the most completions in the league, including 10 of 16 targeting Jaxon Smith-Njigba. His chemistry with his new WR1 has really opened things up. Smith-Njigba leads the NFL in receiving this year (819), which doesn't even do him justice. He has the highest target share (38%) by any player since Brandon Marshall in 2012 and he's averaging the most yards per route run (4.33) by any player since it was first tracked in 2017. He's definitely in a league of his own this year, as evidenced by his headshot alone in the top right of the chart below. Darnold is having more success targeting Smith-Njigba than he was with Justin Jefferson through seven games last year. Sam Darnold's top targets through seven games 2024 Justin Jefferson2025 Jaxon Smith-Njigba Yards 646 819 Yards per attempt 10.8 11.9 TD-INT 5-0 4-0 Can the Vikings pick up the pieces? Despite the great starts, I assume I'm not alone in wondering if we can trust Jones or Darnold. I'm also wondering if the Vikings can recover from a slow start and avoid wasting one of the remaining years of Jefferson's prime. It's looking very unlikely. J.J. McCarthy has shown us one good quarter of football in his young career, and he's the most inefficient quarterback in the NFL this year, measured by EPA per dropback. It's a small sample, but it's worrisome when you consider how they've handled his return from the ankle injury. Making matters worse, the Vikings have the most challenging remaining schedule in the NFL, according to SportsLine, and currently sit in last place in the NFC North with a 3-4 record. Their playoff chances are below 10%. It looks like a lost season thanks to one of the biggest QB fails ever.
