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US stocks mostly turned around initial losses seen in what was a day of two halves. At the cash open, and US equity futures prior to it, weakness was seen, which was led by CoreWeave cutting revenue guidance, and Softbank selling its whole stake in NVIDIA. While both those names still notched notable losses, with the former down in excess of 11%, and Technology the only sector in the red, broader indices pared losses. S&P 500 and Russell 2000 settled with gains, while Nasdaq 100 had marginal losses as risk sentiment turned around after European players left for the day, albeit on no specific newsflow. USD was pressured after the weekly ADP report unveiled an average loss of 11,250 jobs per week in private employment in the four weeks ending 25th October. The data immediately resulted in dollar weakness and saw dovish repricing regarding the Fed, with money markets pointing to a 67% chance of a 25bps December rate cut (previous 60%). Furthermore, the NFIB Business Optimism Index hit its lowest level in six months as small business owners reported lower sales and reduced profits. Looking ahead, highlights include South Korean Unemployment Rate, Japanese Money Supply & Machine Tool Orders, Comments from Fed's Barr, Supply from Australia. More Newsquawk in 2 steps: 1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports 2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include South Korean Unemployment Rate, Japanese Money Supply & Machine Tool Orders, Comments from Fed's Barr, Supply from Australia. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. US TRADE US stocks mostly turned around initial losses seen in what was a day of two halves. At the cash open, and US equity futures prior to it, weakness was seen, which was led by CoreWeave cutting revenue guidance, and Softbank selling its whole stake in NVIDIA. While both those names still notched notable losses, with the former down in excess of 11%, and Technology the only sector in the red, broader indices pared losses. S&P 500 and Russell 2000 settled with gains, while Nasdaq 100 had marginal losses as risk sentiment turned around after European players left for the day, albeit on no specific newsflow. SPX +0.21% at 6,847, NDX -0.31% at 25,533, DJI +1.18% at 47,928, RUT +0.11% at 2,458. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE China said it is willing to work with the US for a stable global supply chain, while China’s Commerce Ministry said on pausing the affiliate rule that the two sides will remain in discussions regarding arrangements after the 1-year pause. China's Commerce Minister held a call with Germany's Economy and Energy Ministers and stated that the root of the Nexperia issue is Dutch government interference in the firm's affairs, while he hopes the German side will play an active role in urging the Dutch government to take action. Furthermore, German Economic Minister Reiche stressed the importance of a lasting easing of deliveries of Nexperia semiconductors from China to Germany. Switzerland is close to sealing a 15% tariff deal with the US, which could be completed as early as Thursday or Friday, while a deal is not certain until US President Trump has given his approval. Indian trade official said India is waiting for a response from the US for a trade deal. NOTABLE HEADLINES US President Trump said US Senate Majority Leader Thune got a big victory in the stopgap funding deal, and they are opening up the country, while Trump said regarding the US House vote to end the government shutdown, that he thinks they will vote positively. US House Rules Committee was reportedly aiming to meet around 18:00-18:30EST to advance the government funding package for a floor vote tomorrow, according to a Politico reporter. US House is going to be in next Friday and members are advised that votes are also expected in the House next Friday, 21st November, according to Punchbowl. US House Minority Leader Jefferies said he will oppose the stopgap bill without ACA subsidies, according to a CNN interview. White House economic adviser Hassett says we'll be back at 3-4% growth pace by early next year and the trajectory for inflation is really good, while he said they are looking at housing and how to make people's lives more affordable. Hassett noted that he was disappointed with what Chair Powell said post-Fed in a voting sense and is befuddled by Chair Powell noting they are "less likely to cut" and wondered again if it was "something political", according to CNN. DATA RECAP Weekly ADP Employment Change (Four weeks, ending 25th Oct 2025): Private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week, suggesting that the labour market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of the month. However, these numbers are preliminary and could change as new data is added. FX USD was pressured after the weekly ADP report unveiled an average loss of 11,250 jobs per week in private employment in the four weeks ending 25th October. The data immediately resulted in dollar weakness and saw dovish repricing regarding the Fed, with money markets pointing to a 67% chance of a 25bps December rate cut (previous 60%). Furthermore, the NFIB Business Optimism Index hit its lowest level in six months as small business owners reported lower sales and reduced profits. EUR benefitted from the dollar weakness and briefly reclaimed the 1.1600 handle with the single currency unfazed by disappointing German ZEW data. GBP was initially pressured following weak jobs data, which showed an increase in the Unemployment Rate to 5.0% from 4.8%, although the currency then spent most of the trading day in recovery mode and gradually clawed back most of its early losses. JPY was ultimately flat on the day against the dollar with USD/JPY back at the 154.00 handle as downside in the pair from the weak US data was offset by tailwinds from the mostly positive risk sentiment. FIXED INCOME T-note futures were bid after soft preliminary weekly ADP figures, while cash bonds were closed due to Veterans Day. COMMODITIES Oil prices gained with prices buoyed by the turnaround in risk sentiment alongside continued Russian refinery attacks. GEOPOLITICAL MIDDLE EAST US is reportedly planning to build a large military base in Israel’s Gaza border region, while the facility would be used by international forces operating in Gaza to help maintain the ceasefire. The facility reportedly would be able to accommodate several thousand soldiers, and the estimated budget for the project is roughly USD 500mln, according to Israeli press citing Israeli sources. RUSSIA-UKRAINE Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said Russia is increasing its attacks in the south-east area of Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine's military said it struck Russia's Saratov oil refinery. Russia's Lavrov said Russia is ready to discuss Putin-Trump summit preparation with the US when the US renews its proposal for high-level talks, while Russia is concerned by US statements that nuclear tests will be used for geopolitical aims. Furthermore, it was stated that if any nuclear power conducts nuclear tests, Russia will do the same, and Russia is ready to discuss US concerns about Russia's suspicious underground activities. Russia is preparing retaliatory measures to the EU ban on issuing multiple-entry visas to Russian citizens, according to TASS. OTHER US aircraft carrier Ford and its strike group arrived in the US military's southern command region for Latin America, according to Reuters citing US officials. UK suspended some intelligence sharing with US over boat strike concerns, with the UK reportedly concerned over the legality of US military strikes on boats, according to CNN. ASIA-PAC NOTABLE HEADLINES PBoC issued its Q3 monetary policy implementation report, which stated it is to implement an appropriately loose monetary policy and strengthen the transmission of policy. Furthermore, it will keep liquidity ample and will maintain FX flexibility, while it will prevent overshooting risks, and will maintain reasonable relative relationships among various types of interest rates. China state planner official said private investment has slowed down this year and there are challenges in private investment, while there's a plan to support private investment to flow to high-value service sectors. Furthermore, they aim to encourage private firms to enter the tech sector and noted that some of the new policy-based financial tools allowed to support private investment in key areas. Japan’s government is reportedly considering raising the departure tax, according to Mainichi press. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES BoE Breeden said holding limits for stable coins will 'halve the stress' on banks from customer deposit withdrawals, while she added that the previous Silicon Valley Bank and Circle withdrawals guided the latest stable coins proposals. UK rejected the EU's demand for EUR 6.75bln to join its flagship defence fund, according to Bloomberg. ECB Vujcic doesn't see any imminent threat of a buyers' strike for French debt, while he stated that the fundamentals of the French economy are still good. ECB's Elderson said the current rate level is appropriate, but they will continue to be data-dependent and will decide one meeting at a time. Furthermore, he said monetary policy is in a good place and the economic environment remains uncertain, so they cannot commit to a pre-determined interest rate path. ECB's Vujcic said risks are balanced around inflation and that recent growth and inflation are higher than forecast, while he added that they are economically in a good place and that the frontloading of tariffs is still unwinding. DATA RECAP UK Employment Change (Sep) -22k vs. exp. 0k (Prev. 91k) UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Sep) 5.0% vs. Exp. 4.9% (Prev. 4.8%) UK Avg Earnings (Ex-Bonus) (Sep) 4.6% vs. Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 4.7%) UK Avg Wk Earnings 3M YY (Sep) 4.8% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 5.0%) German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) 38.5 vs. Exp. 41.0 (Prev. 39.3) German ZEW Current Conditions (Nov) -78.7 vs. Exp. -78.0 (Prev. -80.0) EU ZEW Survey Expectations (Nov) 25.0 (Prev. 22.7) Loading...
