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US stocks were mixed in which the SPX, NDX, and RUT closed little changed, but the DJI saw strong outperformance thanks to upside in heavyweights UnitedHealth (UNH) and Goldman Sachs (GS). Cisco (CSCO) also saw upside ahead of earnings. Breadth was more positive with the RSP rising while sectors were varied as Health Care, Financials and Materials outperformed, but Energy, Communication and Consumer Discretionary lagged. Tech was flat despite the upside in AMD (AMD) after its analyst day. Elsewhere, crude prices plummeted with pressure seen in the wake of a report that Russia is open to speaking to Ukraine, while the latest OPEC MOMR raised oversupply concerns after 2025 and 2026 world oil demand forecasts were left unchanged, but the 2025 supply forecast was raised. Furthermore, the EIA STEO marginally revised up its world oil production and demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026, all by 0.1mln BPD, aside from the 2026 production forecast, which was revised up by 0.2mln BPD. USD was flat amid light catalysts and as data releases remained impacted by the government shutdown, although the House are set to vote tonight on the funding bill to reopen the government, which is expected to pass. There were several comments from Fed officials, including Williams, who believes it won't be long before they need to expand holdings again, while Bostic, who is now set to retire in February 2026, kept to his hawkish stance and argued that the labour market signals are not strong enough to warrant an aggressive monetary policy response vs. the risk of ongoing inflation pressures. Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese PPI, Australian MI Inflation Expectations, Employment Change & Unemployment Rate, Supply from Australia & Japan. More Newsquawk in 2 steps: 1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports 2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include Japanese PPI, Australian MI Inflation Expectations, Employment Change & Unemployment Rate, Supply from Australia & Japan. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. US TRADE US stocks were mixed in which the SPX, NDX, and RUT closed little changed, but the DJI saw strong outperformance thanks to upside in heavyweights UnitedHealth (UNH) and Goldman Sachs (GS). Cisco (CSCO) also saw upside ahead of earnings. Breadth was more positive with the RSP rising while sectors were varied as Health Care, Financials and Materials outperformed, but Energy, Communication and Consumer Discretionary lagged. Tech was flat despite the upside in AMD (AMD) after its analyst day. Elsewhere, crude prices plummeted with pressure seen in the wake of a report that Russia is open to speaking to Ukraine, while the latest OPEC MOMR raised oversupply concerns after 2025 and 2026 world oil demand forecasts were left unchanged, but the 2025 supply forecast was raised. Furthermore, the EIA STEO marginally revised up its world oil production and demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026, all by 0.1mln BPD, aside from the 2026 production forecast, which was revised up by 0.2mln BPD. SPX +0.08% at 6,852, NDX -0.06% at 25,517, DJI +0.68% at 48,255, RUT -0.26% at 2,452. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said China and the US have vast room for cooperation in trade and economy, according to Xinhua. FBI Director said China agreed on a plan to stop fentanyl precursors and agreed to control seven chemical substances, which are now banned. German Finance Minister said they expect a Mercosur deal to be sealed by the end of the year. NOTABLE HEADLINES Fed Governor Miran (voter) said Fed policy is too restrictive and they should not take inflation data at face value, while he is in favour of using the Fed's balance sheet more judiciously than in the past. Fed's Williams (voter) said when reserves reach an ample level, gradual bond-buying will begin again and 'it will not be long' before the Fed needs to expand holdings again. Williams added it is an 'inexact science' to determine whether the reserves are ample and that a renewed balance sheet expansion is technical, not monetary policy. Fed's Bostic (2027 voter) said that despite the shifts in the labour market, the clearer and urgent risk is still price stability. Bostic said labour market signals are not strong enough to warrant an aggressive monetary policy response vs. the risk of ongoing inflation pressures. Furthermore, he favours keeping the Fed Funds Rate steady until they see clear evidence of inflation moving towards the 2% target, and he views the current policy stance as 'marginally restrictive', while he noted that if conditions change, he is willing to alter his stance. Atlanta Fed said Fed's Bostic is set to retire at the end of his current five-year term in February 2026 and it will form a search committee to seek a replacement. WSJ's Timiraos noted that the Fed is increasingly torn over a December rate cut, and that as data went dark, inflation hawks pushed to pause rate cuts at a contentious October meeting, and the divide might not end soon. US Supreme Court to hear arguments on Trump bid to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook on January 21st. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Treasury is committed to safeguarding treasuries as the world’s benchmark for stability and keeping the risk-free rate low. Bessent repeated guidance that coupon auction sizes likely will not need changing for the next several quarters and noted that existing financing capacity from current auction sizes and robust bill demand allow flexibility to manage upcoming borrowing needs. Furthermore, he said the Treasury will adjust issuance for auctions gradually to avoid market disruptions. White House Economic Adviser Hassett said the government shutdown will impact this quarter's GDP and anticipates it to be between 1.5-2%, as well as noted that GDP for the year will be roughly 2% and that supply-side policies will allow growth without inflation. Hassett said he agreed with the last two Fed meetings that it was time to cut rates and noted the Fed is unlikely to cut 50bps, with the Fed more likely to do 25bps, while he added that he will do it if asked to be the Fed Chair. US House Majority Leader Scalise announced the House to vote on the bill to end the shutdown on Wednesday around 19:00 EST (00:00 GMT). It was separately reported that House GOP leaders are confident the funding bill will pass tonight, with the bill’s final passage expected around 7:30-8:00PM ET, but could slip, according to CNN. White House Press Secretary Leavitt said the October CPI and jobs data is likely to never be released, while it was separately reported that there is no official word from BLS on plans for October data. FX USD was flat amid light catalysts and as data releases remained impacted by the government shutdown, although the House are set to vote tonight on the funding bill to reopen the government, which is expected to pass. There were several comments from Fed officials, including Williams, who believes it won't be long before they need to expand holdings again, while Bostic, who is now set to retire in February 2026, kept to his hawkish stance and argued that the labour market signals are not strong enough to warrant an aggressive monetary policy response vs. the risk of ongoing inflation pressures. EUR eked mild gains against the dollar but with upside capped in the single currency by resistance just shy of the 1.1600 level. GBP was initially pressured after reports suggested political uncertainty in the UK, although GBP/USD later recouped the majority of earlier losses after the UK Health Secretary pushed back on reports of a plot to oust the PM, affirming his support for the PM. JPY underperformed in a continuation of its weakening trend, which saw USD/JPY briefly return to the 155.00 territory. BoC Minutes said the Governing Council Members had a range of views about the timing of the cut, but arguments for a move in October were considered more important. Members felt indicators of underlying inflation would give signals about the trend of total inflation, while they expressed concern that weakness in the labour force could persist and broaden. FIXED INCOME T-notes bull flattened as cash trade resumed following Veterans Day, but later saw mild headwinds following softer demand at the 10-year auction. COMMODITIES Oil prices tumbled amid oversupply concerns and positive Ukraine/Russia rhetoric. OPEC MOMR (Nov) noted 2025 and 2026 global oil demand growth forecasts were maintained at about 1.3mln BPD and about 1.4mln BPD Y/Y, respectively, while 2025 supply forecast was revised slightly higher with Non-DoC liquids production (i.e. liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.9mln BPD Y/Y, in 2025, revised up slightly by around 0.1mln BPD from last month’s assessment, mainly due to received historical data in 2025. EIA STEO stated world oil supply and demand were revised marginally up for 2025 and 2026, with world oil demand in 2025 seen at 104.1mln bpd (prev. 104mln bpd) and 2026 seen at 105.2mln bpd (prev. 105.1mln bpd), while world oil production in 2025 is seen at 106mln bpd (prev. 105.9mln bpd) and 2026 seen at 107.4mln bpd (prev. 107.2mln bpd). Kazakhstan's Energy Ministry sees 2026 oil production at around 90mln tonnes, according to TASS. Russia's Lukoil filed for an extension of the US Treasury's deadline prohibiting transactions with the company after November 21st, according to Reuters citing sources. GEOPOLITICAL MIDDLE EAST US Treasury is targeting 32 individuals and entities based in Iran, the UAE, Türkiye, China, Hong Kong, India, Germany, and Ukraine that operate multiple procurement networks supporting Iran’s ballistic missile and UAV production. **White House said when asked about a report on the US mulling a base on the Gaza border, that this is not something the US is interested in being engaged in. RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russia is reportedly ready to resume talks with Ukraine in Istanbul, according to TASS. OTHER US and Saudi officials have held intense negotiations in recent weeks to finalise a number of agreements, including a defence pact, ahead of a meeting between Saudi Crown Prince MBS and US President Trump in the US next week. India’s cabinet said the New Delhi blast was a 'terrorist incident', according to Bloomberg. ASIA-PAC NOTABLE HEADLINES Japanese PM Takaichi said appropriate monetary policy is very important and they will be coordinating closely with the BoJ to attain economic growth. Japan is reportedly mulling an increase of at least threefold on its departure tax, according to Nikkei sources. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly considering an increase in taxes on alcohol in line with elevated inflation, according to CityAM citing sources. ECB's Schnabel said there is positive underlying momentum in the economy and she still sees stickiness in services inflation, while she added that inflation risks are tilted slightly to the upside and that the main focus should be on core inflation. ECB's Kocher said that given recent data, a somewhat stronger growth outlook is not impossible, while he added it would not be too surprising if the ECB holds rates steady in 2026. Loading...
