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Further positive trade rhetoric from the US, mega-cap earnings in focus; AMZN +12.9% after-hours, AAPL +2.7% European futures point to a slightly softer open, US futures rebounded from the Powell pressure amid earnings, NQ leads DXY paused for breath, EUR/USD beneath 1.16, Antipodeans lackluster after a disappointing Chinese Manufacturing PMI Fixed benchmarks subdued, weighed on in part by sizable Meta supply Crude futures lacked demand, XAU tested the USD 4k/oz mark to the downside, base metals rangebound Looking ahead, highlights include German Import Prices (Sep), Retail Sales (Sep), EZ Flash HICP (Oct), Italian CPI, Dallas Fed (Sep), Chicago PMI (Oct), (Suspended Releases: US PCE, Employment Costs), ECB Bulletin, Speakers including Fed’s Logan, Bostic, Miran & Schmid, Earnings from Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AbbVie, AON & Intesa Sanpaolo Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. Newsquawk in 3 steps: 1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports 2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify) 3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days US TRADE EQUITIES US stocks saw further pressure on Thursday with the hawkish Powell still weighing, while shares of Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) were hit following earnings the previous night, but Google (GOOGL) saw upside. On the trade front, the overall tone of the Trump/Xi meeting was positive, with the two sides agreeing to a one-year trade truce while the US will halve the fentanyl-related tariffs on China and delay tech export controls for a year. In return, China will pause the latest rare-earth export curbs for a year and purchase US soybeans. The majority of sectors were red, with Consumer Discretionary, Communications and Tech all underperforming, while Real Estate, Financials and Healthcare outperformed in the green. SPX -0.99% at 6,822, NDX -1.47% at 25,735, DJI -0.23% at 47,522, RUT -0.76% at 2,466. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE US President Trump posted on Truth that he is more confident than ever that the friendship between the US and Japan is strong, which he said is thriving, prosperous, and will soon be greater than ever before. USTR Greer said the probe of China trade practices is moving forward and noted the US and China will make milestones on fentanyl, while he stated that Russian oil came up during the Trump-Xi meeting. Chinese President Xi called for safeguarding multilateral trade at the APEC summit and urged members to practice true multilateralism, while he called on APEC to keep industrial and supply chains smooth and stable. Xi said APEC should promote an open regional economic environment and called for promoting trade and investment liberalisation, as well as urged members to jointly promote the digitalisation and greening of free trade. China's top trade negotiator Li Chenggang said they will conduct studies on international standards, economic and trade rules, and continue to meet them in terms of green standards. Li said export volume of photovoltaic products exceeded CNY 200bln for four consecutive years, and that export volume of electric vehicles exceeded 2mln units for the first time last year. Furthermore, he said green vehicles such as locomotives have also maintained strong growth and that China will continue to adapt to the global trend of green and low-carbon development. South Korean President Lee said they are at a critical inflection point of change in global order, and global trade uncertainty is deepening. NOTABLE HEADLINES US President Trump posted "….BECAUSE OF THE FACT THAT THE DEMOCRATS HAVE GONE STONE COLD “CRAZY,” THE CHOICE IS CLEAR — INITIATE THE “NUCLEAR OPTION,” GET RID OF THE FILIBUSTER" US Transportation Secretary Duffy said air traffic will be snarled if the government shutdown continues, and they are working with unions to prevent shutdown-related disruptions. US President Trump's administration fired Fannie Mae ethics officials, according to WSJ. Fed plans to shrink board of top banking supervisor by 30% as the Trump admin seeks to deregulate the financial sector, according to FT. Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) Q3 2025 (USD): EPS 1.95 (exp. 1.57), Revenue 180.2bln (exp. 178.08bln); (+12.9% after-market) Apple Inc (AAPL) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 1.85 (exp. 1.78), Revenue 102.5bln (exp. 102.14bln), iPhone revenue 49.03bln (exp. 50.2bln), iPad revenue 6.95bln (exp. 6.98bln), Mac revenue 8.73bln (exp. 8.59bln), Services 28.75bln (exp. 28.17bln), Wearables 9.01bln (exp. 8.5bln), China revenue 14.49bln (exp. 16.24bln); (+2.7% after-market) APAC TRADE EQUITIES APAC stocks traded mixed as the region digested recent earnings releases and a data deluge at month-end. ASX 200 was flat as gains in mining, materials and resources were offset as defensives lagged. Nikkei 225 outperformed and climbed above the 52,000 level to print a fresh all-time high after recent currency weakness and the lack of immediate rate hike signals from the BoJ, while participants digested a slew of data, including a higher Unemployment Rate, hot Tokyo CPI and a rebound in Industrial Production. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were amid losses in tech stocks, and after Chinese Manufacturing PMI data missed expectations and showed a faster pace of contraction in factory activity US equity futures rebounded from the prior day's lows with the recovery facilitated by Apple and Amazon earnings. European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.1% on Thursday. FX DXY took a pause after having strengthened broadly against peers yesterday as markets continued to reprice a conflicted Fed on a December policy decision and as the outcome of the recent Trump-Xi meeting was also encouraging for the dollar. Nonetheless, the greenback was uneventful overnight amid a slew of data releases in Asia and with several Fed speakers scheduled for Friday. EUR/USD languished beneath the 1.1600 handle after it recently gave up ground to the firmer dollar, and with the single currency not helped by the lack of fireworks at the ECB meeting, while a recent source report noted that ECB policymakers are preparing for a December showdown on inflation and rates. GBP/USD remained constrained following a three-day losing streak and amid some political headwinds after Chancellor Reeves admitted to breaking housing rules by renting out her family home without a licence. USD/JPY marginally pulled back after briefly reclaiming the 154.00 level with participants digesting a hot Tokyo CPI report. Antipodeans were lacklustre after extending on post-FOMC losses and as participants reflect on disappointing Chinese Manufacturing PMI data. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0880 vs exp. 7.1171 (Prev. 7.0864) SNB's Tschudin said they are in a situation where they have an appropriate monetary policy at present and that policy is expansive, while she added it is ok if inflation went below 0% for a short time. FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures remained subdued after extending on post-FOMC losses, with prices not helped by chunky Meta supply. Bund futures struggled for direction after recent indecision and an uneventful ECB meeting, while German Import Prices and Retail Sales loom. 10yr JGB futures lacked demand amid the heightened risk appetite in Japan and as participants digested a slew of data releases, including higher unemployment and hot Tokyo CPI, while a stronger 2yr JGB auction failed to spur futures. COMMODITIES Crude futures lacked demand following yesterday's choppy performance in the absence of notable energy-related catalysts and ahead of Sunday's OPEC+ meeting, where they are expected to lift production by 137k bpd. Spot gold partially faded the prior day's recovery and retested the USD 4,000/oz level to the downside. Copper futures were rangebound amid the mixed risk appetite and disappointing Chinese Manufacturing PMI data. China Iron and Steel Association said China’s apparent steel consumption from January to September fell 5.7% Y/Y to 649mln metric tons, while it added that apparent steel consumption in 2025 is expected to fall for a fifth straight year. CRYPTO Bitcoin gained overnight, albeit in a choppy fashion and edged closer towards the USD 110k level. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said discussions on lowering gasoline prices have progressed, including sources for funding, while she added that the Bank of Japan’s recent decision was extremely reasonable and that monetary policies are up to the BoJ to decide. Katayama also commented that they are recently seeing one-sided and rapid moves, as well noted, it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals and they are closely watching foreign exchange moves with a high sense of urgency. DATA RECAP Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.0 vs. Exp. 49.6 (Prev. 49.8); Non-Mfg PMI (Oct) 50.1 vs. Exp. 50.1 (Prev. 50.0) Chinese Composite PMI (Oct) 50.0 (Prev. 50.6) Japanese Industrial Production Prelim. MM SA (Sep) 2.2% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. -1.5%) Japanese Retail Sales YY (Sep) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. -1.1%, Rev. -0.9%) Japanese Unemployment Rate (Sep) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.6%) Tokyo CPY YY (Oct) 2.8% vs Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.5%); Ex. Fresh Food YY (Oct) 2.8% vs Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.5%) Tokyo CPY Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Oct) 2.8% vs Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.5%) GEOPOLITICS MIDDLE EAST Palestinian media reports Israeli raids targeted Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, according to Sky News Arabia. RUSSIA/UKRAINE US reportedly cancelled the Trump-Putin meeting after Moscow sent a memo to Washington, as the Russian Foreign Ministry’s maximalist demands for ending the Ukraine war led to the US scrapping the planned meeting in Budapest, according to FT. OTHER NEWS US President Trump's administration identified targets in Venezuela that include military facilities used to smuggle drugs, according to WSJ citing US officials familiar with the matter. Furthermore, the officials stated that if Trump decided to move forward with airstrikes, the targets would send a clear message to Venezuelan leader Maduro that it is time to step down. US Secretary of Defense Hegseth met with Chinese counterpart Dong Jun, which he said was a good and constructive meeting, while he highlighted the importance of maintaining the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. Furthermore, he highlighted US concerns about China’s activities in the South China Sea and said the US will continue to stoutly defend its interests. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES ECB policymakers reportedly prepare for a December showdown on inflation and rates, as some think 2028 inflation projection would warrant rate cut debate, others favour giving little weight to any small undershooting three years ahead, according to Reuters sources. DATA RECAP UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Oct) 50 (Prev. 42) Loading...
