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The closed slightly lower at 99.69, giving back minor gains after touching an intraday high of 99.74. Despite the dip, the broader trend remains constructive, with the index consolidating near key resistance levels as investors reassess the timing of potential Federal Reserve . Key Technical Observations Moving Averages – Uptrend Moderation: The 15-day moving average (99.40) and 20-day moving average (99.21) remain positively aligned, confirming an ongoing uptrend. However, recent price action shows some loss of momentum as the price begins to flatten near the psychological 100.00 mark. A sustained break above 100.00–100.50 is required to reaffirm bullish continuation. Trend Structure: The index has rebounded strongly from the 96.50–97.00 base, forming higher lows since mid-March. The latest candles indicate consolidation near the top of this uptrend channel, suggesting possible short-term range trading between 98.80 and 100.50 before the next directional move. RSI Momentum: The RSI (14) currently sits at 59.04, just below the overbought threshold but still comfortably within bullish territory. This suggests mild consolidation or a short pullback could occur before another push higher, unless RSI fails to hold above 50. Candle Behaviour: The last two candles show smaller real bodies and upper shadows, indicating profit-taking and hesitation near resistance. This pattern supports the case for a temporary pause or sideways movement in the near term. Macro & Market Context Yield and Policy Divergence Supporting USD: U.S. Treasury yields remain firm across the curve as investors continue to price in a “higher for longer” Fed stance. This is reinforcing dollar strength, particularly against low-yielding currencies like the yen and euro. Global Risk Sentiment: With equities stabilizing and commodity currencies rebounding, the dollar is seeing a natural short-term cooling phase. Still, the underlying macro environment — resilient U.S. data, strong labour market, and sticky — remains dollar-supportive. Fed Watch: Market attention is now shifting toward upcoming and data for further clues on rate path expectations. Any upside surprise would likely revive bullish momentum in the DXY. Key Levels to Watch Immediate Resistance: 100.00 – psychological ceiling; key breakout zone. Next Resistance: 100.50 – previous swing high. Immediate Support: 99.20 – near 20-day moving average. Deeper Support: 98.50 – structural base of the recent rally. Bias: Bullish but Losing Momentum The medium-term bias remains bullish while the DXY trades above 99.00, supported by both moving averages. However, short-term momentum is fading, suggesting a possible pullback or sideways phase before any renewed push higher. Key Takeaways
