Copyright Baton Rouge Advocate
If the performance on crucial downs and distances by New Orleans Saints rookie Tyler Shough against the Carolina Panthers felt extraordinary in the moment, the numbers are there to say that feeling was correct. Start with the basics: Making his second career start, Shough completed seven of his 10 throws on third downs against the Panthers. Those passes went for 201 yards and two touchdowns, good for a 152.1 passer rating. Put another way, Shough’s 201 passing yards on third down were more than 14 other NFL teams had in their entire game last week. But the numbers are especially eye-popping when you drill in a little deeper. Next Gen Stats is one of several services that calculates Expected Points Added (EPA), which attempts to quantify how many points a given play will add or subtract from a team’s expected output. New Orleans allowed Shough to throw the ball four times in third and long situations, defined as needing seven or more yards to convert a third down. Shough put up a +4.06 EPA per pass in such situations — the highest by any team on third and long in an NFL game since the Miami Dolphins put up a +4.93 EPA/pass in Week 3 of the 2023 season. That game might ring a bell: The Dolphins hung 70 points on Sean Payton’s Broncos that day. New Orleans is obviously a long way off from a 10-touchdown game — its 17 points Sunday marked its fifth consecutive output below 20 points, and it is one of four teams who have failed to eclipse 30 points in a game this season (the Saints’ season high is 26). But the way Shough played in those crucial downs Sunday against the Panthers does provide some optimism that this Saints offense may be able to find another gear in the second half of the season. Consider this: In the first nine games of the season, the Saints faced a third and 7 or longer 60 times, and they converted just nine of them — a 15 % conversion rate. For context, only the Tennessee Titans are converting at a worse rate (14.5 %) and half the league is converting at least 25 % of such plays through 10 weeks. Spencer Rattler, who started the first eight games, had a 61.0 passer rating and averaged 4.7 yards per attempt when needing seven or more yards to convert. New Orleans didn’t convert its first third and 10 without the aid of a penalty until Week 8 against the Buccaneers. Against the Panthers on Sunday, Shough converted third downs of 12, 12 and 8 yards. Those gains went for 52, 62 and 30 yards, with two of them going for scores. The only third and long the Saints didn’t convert through the air was maybe Shough’s most impressive throw of the day, a 15-yard laser between converging defenders to Devaughn Vele on third and 17. Two of those conversions went to tight end Juwan Johnson — a 52-yarder on third and 12 and a 30-yard touchdown on third and 8. Both of those plays were only able to be made because of Shough’s ability to navigate traffic in the pocket and extend the play. According to Next Gen Stats, Shough’s average time to throw on his four third and long dropbacks was 4.27 seconds. The only quarterback who kept plays alive longer on such plays was reigning MVP Josh Allen (4.91 seconds). It’s only one week, but it was an extremely encouraging week for a team seeking a long-term answer at the most important position in sports. Stuffed Panther A quick note about the Saints’ effort against a Panthers rushing attack that had been mauling teams recently: The thing that stood out the most about the Saints effort, in which they limited Rico Dowdle to 2.9 yards per carry, was the physicality of the defensive front. While there is plenty of truth to what safety Justin Reid said after the game about New Orleans playing its most fundamentally sound game of the year defensively, New Orleans also just straight up manhandled a Panthers offensive line that had grown accustomed to enforcing its will. New Orleans managed to squeeze the life out of the Carolina rushing attack despite playing in a light or neutral box on 91.3 % of its defensive snaps. A regular combination of defensive linemen Davon Godchaux, Jonah Williams and Jonathan Bullard consistently negated any push by the Carolina offensive line, allowing the linebackers to clean things up. Here was how Dowdle’s final 12 attempts finished out after a 14-yard carry in the first: Three went for 4 yards, two went for 3 yards, one went for 2 yards, five gained one yard and the final carry lost a yard. That’ll win some games. Numbers to know 202 — The Saints found ways to utilize Shough’s impressive arm strength. Of his 282 passing yards — a Saints rookie record, by the way — 202 came on throws outside the numbers. -0.51 — Carolina averaged -0.51 EPA per play against the Saints defense. Put another way, every two plays the Panthers ran against the Saints contributed a full point less than the expected scoring output. The -0.51 mark is tied for the fifth-best performance by any defense in a single game this season, according to Next Gen Stats. 1 — As promising as Shough’s first win was, the Saints may have a tough time sustaining that effort unless they get more people involved. After trading Rashid Shaheed last week, only one of Shough’s completions went to a wide receiver other than Chris Olave.
