As the Nobel Peace Prize approaches its annual announcement, U.S. President Donald Trump has made no secret of his desire to secure the prestigious award, arguing that his efforts in conflict resolution warrant recognition. However, while Trump claims it would be an “insult” to the United States if he were overlooked, experts and observers suggest his chances remain slim.
According to AFP, Trump recently declared that he had resolved “six or seven wars in as many months,” though fact-checkers have described this claim as highly exaggerated. He has also put forward a 20-point peace proposal for Gaza, aimed at ending the war, releasing hostages, and rebuilding what he termed “New Gaza.” Speaking to top generals and admirals in Quantico, Virginia, Trump remarked, “If this works out, we’ll have eight in eight months. That’s pretty good. Nobody’s ever done that. Will you get the Nobel Prize? Absolutely not.” He added that awarding the honor elsewhere would be “a big insult to our country.”
Despite such assertions, analysts in Oslo, where the Nobel Peace Prize is awarded, have suggested that Trump is highly unlikely to be chosen. Oeivind Stenersen, a historian who has researched the prize extensively, told AFP, “It’s completely unthinkable. Trump is in many ways the opposite of the ideals that the Nobel Prize represents.” He noted that the award is traditionally about defending multilateral cooperation, particularly within institutions such as the United Nations, while Trump has pursued a more unilateral, “America First” path.
Forgotten causes in focus
Karim Haggag, head of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), said the Nobel Committee is likelier to highlight “local mediators and local peace builders on the ground” working in overlooked conflict zones. “These are actors who have been forgotten in many of the world’s forgotten conflicts,” he told AFP, citing Sudan, the Sahel, and parts of the Horn of Africa.
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, networks of volunteers risking their lives to provide food and aid amid famine and conflict, were highlighted as groups that may be considered. Other potential candidates include media watchdogs such as the Committee to Protect Journalists and Reporters Without Borders, particularly after what experts described as a deadly year for journalists, especially in Gaza. “Never before have so many journalists been killed in a single year,” Nina Grager, head of the Peace Research Institute of Oslo, told AFP.
According to the report, Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of late Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, is also considered one of the bookmakers’ favorites. Last year, the award went to Nihon Hidankyo, a Japanese group of atomic bomb survivors, in recognition of its campaign against nuclear weapons.
Claims and controversies
Both endorsements and controversies have accompanied Trump’s push for the Nobel Peace Prize. In June 2025, the government of Pakistan publicly announced its nomination of Trump. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet supported his candidacy in July and August. Additionally, several U.S. Republican lawmakers, including Representatives Buddy Carter, Darrell Issa, and Claudia Tenney, confirmed that they had submitted nominations in recent years.
At the same time, Trump has faced scrutiny for inflating his record. According to the Associated Press, his repeated claim at the United Nations that he had ended seven wars was found to be false.
In late September, viral social media posts further complicated the discussion by alleging that the Nobel Committee had permanently disqualified Trump from future awards due to his remarks at the UN and his proposal to rename the Department of Defense as the “Department of War.”
The claim was debunked by Snopes, which confirmed with both the Associated Press and the Norwegian Nobel Institute that no such disqualification had occurred. A spokesperson for the institute told Snopes the committee would not make this kind of statement and had “never disqualified a proposed candidate.”
A prize beyond politics
The Nobel Peace Prize, awarded annually in Oslo, recognizes outstanding efforts in promoting peace and resolving conflict. While nominations are kept secret for 50 years, thousands of individuals and organizations worldwide are eligible to propose candidates each year. For 2025, 338 nominations were confirmed, though their details remain undisclosed.
The award carries international prestige, a diploma, a gold medal, and a cash prize of roughly $1.2 million. While Trump has sought to tie his prize to American honor, experts suggest the Nobel Committee will remain focused on overlooked conflicts and humanitarian work rather than high-profile political ambitions.
As Haggag of SIPRI emphasized, “The Nobel Committee should shine a light on the work done by local mediators and local peace builders on the ground.” For now, while Trump continues to seek recognition, the committee appears to be quietly carrying on with its mission, likely far from the spotlight of American politics.