By Vallari Sanzgiri

Copyright thehindubusinessline

The new H-1B visa cost of $100,000 per employee decreed by the Trump administration may lead to greater opportunity for Indian businesses, at the cost of crushed dreams of individual Indians and near-term uncertainty among the Indian diaspora, said experts.

“This new fee represents a tragedy for the many Indian professionals who learn valuable skills while embedded in the US work culture, but it represents a potential gold rush for Indian professionals in India. US companies will accelerate establishing GCCs in India,” said Russell Stamets, Partner at Circle of Counsels.

Stamets argued that the new fee is “no big deal” for India, given that 30 years of outsourcing processes and five years after the Covid-19 pandemic have demonstrated the viability of remote work. Instead, the move may make remote work easier as the greatest barriers to effective outsourcing and remote work are cultural in terms of non-technical skills, said Stamets.

“Many of the Trump administration’s policy goals are abundantly clear: fewer immigrants, for shorter periods, at higher cost and for specific perceived “benefit” to the United States,” he said.

Higher costs

On the other hand, Sajai Singh, Partner, JSA Advocates & Solicitors, warned that the new fee will increase costs allocations for IT companies, especially if they rely heavily on H-1B visas. This will potentially force them to reconsider their hiring strategies and business models. Association body NASSCOM also worried about the timeline of this move (anyone entering the U.S. after 12:01 a.m., September 21) as a one-day deadline creates considerable uncertainty for businesses, professionals, and students across the world.

“Indian IT companies may lose their competitive edge, if they rely heavily on H-1B visas. This will lead to increased costs, potentially leading to reduced market share and revenue. Eventually, the proclamation may achieve what it set out to achieve – hiring and training local talent in the US, which could lead to a more localised workforce,” said Singh.

According to a Boundless report, India holds the highest number of H-1B visa holders at 320,791 people, followed by China. This means Indian talent may face reduced mobility.

However, Aditya Narayan Mishra, MD and CEO of CIEL HR, was sceptical of any adverse impact on India. While he agreed there may be short-term disruption within companies, Narayan said, “For 10 years now, Indian companies have reduced their dependence on H-1B visas. There will not be any impact on our companies profitability, etc. although life of employees and the flow of work like project deployment will be affected.”

Reinforcing this notion, NASSCOM in its official statement too said that India and India-centric companies have been steadily reducing their reliance on these visas through increased local hiring in recent years. TCS has earlier maintained it has reduced dependence on US visas by focusing its hiring policies to employ more local talent across the geographies it operates in.

Similarly, C.P. Gurnani, Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, AIonOS, said there will be minimal impact on business. “Over the past several years, Indian IT firms have significantly reduced their reliance on the H-1B visa, with filings dropping by over 50 per cent. This shift is a result of our ongoing strategy to hire more locally, invest in automation and enhance our global delivery models,” he said.

Oversupply in India, or uptick in remote work?

Narayan expected companies to scale down on the number of foreign employees and hire locally from the US, provided the fee passed the required legislative process. This could lead to an oversupply of the workforce here in India or an uptick in remote work. Overall, he expected the move to impact the US economy, making the IT talent pool more expensive.

“The whole proclamation is irrational. The fee may be charged back to customers which will in turn again affect the US government,” he said.

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Published on September 20, 2025