Copyright bbc
The Chinese announcement on rare earths stunned the White House. Especially because it came after Trump said that the two sides had reached an agreement on the sale of TikTok's US business. A top US trade official called it a "betrayal" of the US-China truce. The move served as a stark reminder of American dependence on Chinese resources. And it prompted a series of agreements between the US and Australia, Malaysia and Japan, all focused on US access to rare earths - a form of "insurance" for Washington to get hold of the minerals outside China, according to Prof Harcourt. These deals happened as Trump and US negotiators sought to ease tensions with Beijing, and met with Chinese officials to set up Thursday's meeting. The differences are huge, and the rivalry runs deep but "there are lower-hanging fruits", according to Prof Kam, such as China delaying its rare earth export curbs in exchange for lower tariffs. The day before the talks, Beijing had bought the first cargoes of soybeans this season, Reuters reported - a win for Trump and American farmers. In return, Xi is expected to seek some relief from the restrictions on chip sales to China. The final green light on the TikTok deal, which analysts are expecting, would be another win for Trump. However fragile a deal might be, it could "narrow the risk" of any unexpected decisions in the months ahead, Prof Kam adds. Prof Harcourt agrees: "I still think the Trump administration is pretty erratic with tariffs... But the talks could smooth the waters." But, he warns, no truce between the US and China will last forever.
