Confidence among Trump supporters about the nation’s trajectory is slipping, according to new polling.
YouGov/Economist polling shows that at the start of September, 75 percent of Trump voters said the country was headed in the right direction, while just 17 percent believed it was on the wrong track. By the end of the month, those numbers shifted to 70 percent and 22 percent, respectively—a net negative swing of 10 points.
The YouGov/Economist poll is not the first to show that Republicans are growing increasingly pessimistic. The latest Gallup poll showed a fall in optimism about the direction of the country among Republicans to 68 percent in September, from 76 percent in August.
And according to AP-NORC, the share of Republicans saying the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction has surged from 29 percent in June to 51 percent in September. Among Republicans under 45, that number leapt by 30 points to 61 percent.
A Marquette poll from this month also reflected declining optimism, showing Republican satisfaction with the country’s direction falling from 79 percent in July to 70 percent in September.
The drop in optimism comes after a turbulent September for the Trump administration. The killing of conservative activist Charlie Kirk rattled parts of the movement, while the White House faced backlash over what critics described as a crackdown on free speech following the decision by ABC News to take the Jimmy Kimmel show off air after his remarks about Kirk. The month closed with a bitter standoff in Washington that led to a government shutdown, fueling further uncertainty.
Concerns About Political Violence
The death of Charlie Kirk has ignited concerns among Republicans about political violence, according to polling.
A Quinnipiac poll found that a majority of Republicans (60 percent) believe the U.S. is in a political crisis. YouGov polling also found that 67 percent of Republicans think political violence is a very big problem.
And a Marquette survey shows that Republicans see political violence as a serious problem, but they overwhelmingly blame the left for it. More than half of Republicans (57 percent) say left-wing violence is the bigger issue, while only 3 percent point to right-wing violence. At the same time, they are less likely than Democrats to connect aggressive political language to an increased risk of violence—just 39 percent of Republicans say heated rhetoric makes violence much more likely, compared to 63 percent of Democrats.
Meanwhile, Gallup polling shows that the fallout from Kirk’s assassination has shifted Americans’ sense of national priorities. Gallup found mentions of crime or violence as the country’s top problem rose from 3 percent in August to 8 percent in September, the highest in five years. Concern about national unity doubled from 5 percent to 10 percent, the highest since the aftermath of January 6.
But partisan divides are clear. Republicans drove most of the increase in concern about crime, jumping from 6 percent to 14 percent, while independents fueled the spike in unity concerns, climbing from 5 percent to 13 percent.
Republicans have responded with near-uniform outrage and grief to the assassination of Kirk, describing his killing as both a personal tragedy and a political turning point.
Trump was among the first to speak out, calling Kirk’s death a “dark moment for America” and praising him as “a tremendous person” who devoted his life to the conservative cause.
Within days, he ordered flags to be flown at half-staff and announced that Kirk would receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom posthumously. At a memorial service in Arizona, Trump elevated Kirk as a “martyr for American freedom” and placed blame on the “radical left” for creating what he described as the climate of hostility that led to the shooting.
Other Republican lawmakers struck similar notes. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senator Mike Lee both praised Kirk’s influence on the conservative movement and condemned the violence that ended his life, calling the assassination a reminder of America’s increasingly dangerous political climate.
Vice President JD Vance also echoed Trump’s framing, urging supporters to treat the killing not just as an act of violence, but as part of a broader cultural battle, warning that those who mocked Kirk’s death online were contributing to the same climate the president condemned.
But Peter Loge, director of the Project on Ethics in Political Communication at George Washington University, told Newsweek that it is exactly this kind of rhetoric that is contributing toward the growing sense of dissatisfaction with the country’s trajectory.
“One reason so many voters think the country is heading in the wrong direction is because the president keeps telling voters everything is terrible. The loudest conservative voices are telling voters that the nation is badly broken and that anyone who disagrees with them is evil. It would be shocking if voters, especially Republican voters, thought things were going well when the loudest voices say everything is going wrong,” Loge said.
Concerns About Free Speech
At the same time, polls show that concerns are growing among Republicans about the state of free speech in the country.
It comes after ABC announced that it was suspending Jimmy Kimmel Live! after a joke Kimmel made about the Trump administration’s reaction to the killing of Charlie Kirk.
The Trump administration’s Federal Communications Commission (FCC) sharply criticized Kimmel’s comments, putting greater political and business pressure on the company to take action.
“This is a very, very serious issue right now for Disney,” FCC Chairman Brendan Carr said on Benny Johnson’s podcast. “We can do this the easy way or the hard way. These companies can find ways to take action on Kimmel or there will be additional work for the FCC ahead.”
The decision to temporarily take the show off air sparked backlash from Democrats, who accused the Trump administration of silencing free speech.
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren said on X: “First Colbert, now Kimmel. Last-minute settlements, secret side deals, multi-billion dollar mergers pending Donald Trump’s approval.
“Trump silencing free speech stifles our democracy. It sure looks like giant media companies are enabling his authoritarianism.”
California Governor Gavin Newsom said on X: “Buying and controlling media platforms. Firing commentators. Canceling shows. These aren’t coincidences. It’s coordinated. And it’s dangerous. The @GOP does not believe in free speech. They are censoring you in real time.”
But polling showed that Republicans largely supported the decision to take the show off air, with 62 percent of Trump voters supporting the cancellation, while just 21 percent opposed it, according to the YouGov/Economist poll.
Nonetheless, polling shows that Republicans still have wider concerns about free speech. YouGov polling shows that GOP confidence in the state of free expression has declined sharply since spring, falling from +44 in May to +21 in September.
However, YouGov polling found that only 17 percent of Republicans agree that the Trump administration is limiting free speech, compared with 76 percent who rejected that claim.
Concerns About Government Shutdown
The recent government shutdown has added another layer of anxiety. The federal government entered its first shutdown in six years this week after Congress failed to break a funding deadlock and pass a measure to keep agencies running.
The government funding dispute largely centers around whether to include an extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies in the spending bill. Democrats say health care protections must be preserved, while Republicans say that funding and policy should be handled separately.
If the shutdown drags on, it could see thousands of federal workers laid off. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that about 750,000 federal workers could be sidelined each day, with daily lost compensation costs around $400 million.
And polling shows that Republicans are concerned about the possible impact of the shutdown.
More than half of Republicans (54 percent) say the shutdown will seriously or somewhat affect the country, according to a YouGov poll.
Meanwhile, polls have also shown that Americans think Republicans would be more to blame than Democrats for the shutdown.
A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll showed that a plurality—38 percent—say Republicans would be most to blame for a shutdown, while 27 percent said Democrats would be to blame.
But Republicans are less likely to blame Trump or their own party. According to YouGov polling, just 26 percent say Trump bears responsibility, while 25 percent fault congressional Republicans.
Trump’s Approval Rating Holds Among Republicans
But while Republicans may be losing confidence in the country overall, this does not necessarily mean they are losing confidence in Trump.
YouGov/Economist polling shows that Trump’s approval rating among Trump voters has remained largely stable, dropping by only one point from +74 points at the beginning of the month.
Meanwhile, Newsweek’s tracker has shown Trump’s approval rating ticking up, from -11 points last week to -8 points as of today. The tracker currently shows that 44 percent approve of Trump’s job performance, while 52 percent disapprove.
Democratic pollster Matt McDermott told Newsweek this paradox reflects the “cult of personality” Trump has built inside the GOP. He noted that for many voters, “supporting Trump is less about policy outcomes and more about loyalty to him personally,” even as they face “growing frustration with the economy, rising costs, and political dysfunction.”
That tension “will eventually break,” McDermott warned, pointing to slowing job growth, lost manufacturing jobs, and higher consumer costs “due entirely to Trump’s tariffs.” With Republicans also shutting down the government to push cuts to health insurance subsidies—a move he said would drive premiums “skyrocketing”—the risk of a fracture in Trump’s base is rising. “Republican voters may not turn on Trump overnight,” McDermott said, “but the gap between loyalty to him and frustration with their lived reality is widening.”
Meanwhile, experts think declining optimism among Republicans could hurt the party’s chances in the long term ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Loge told Newsweek that recent polling is “very bad news for Republican politicians.”
“Most voters mostly want things to work. If voters don’t think things are working, they tend to fire the people in charge and elect new people. The president and a lot of his allies are in charge, and are saying nothing works. The result could be that voters agree and send the Republicans in charge home in the next election,” he said.