Copyright caymancompass
Tropical Storm Melissa was strengthening on Friday afternoon, but all three Cayman Islands will be spared the worst of its impacts if the current forecast track of the US National Hurricane Center verifies. Computer models – and the National Hurricane Center – were becoming increasingly aligned on a track taking Melissa over Jamaica as a major hurricane early next week, before quickly moving north and then northeastward towards Cuba and then the southwest Atlantic Ocean. However, in its discussion of the storm at 5pm EDT on Friday, the National Hurricane Center said there was still some uncertainty regarding the timing of Melissa’s turn north after moving westward Saturday through Monday. Although there’s still some uncertainty in the forecast track, all three Cayman Islands were outside of the National Hurricane Center’s cone of possibility for the route of the centre of the storm as of 5pm EDT Friday, 24 Oct. Expected impact to the Cayman Islands While the projected path of the centre of the storm suggests the Cayman Islands will likely be spared the worst of Melissa’s impacts, Cayman’s National Weather Service continued to urge caution and vigilance until it becomes absolutely clear that the hurricane will not significantly deviate from the current projected path. Based on this track from the NHC on Friday afternoon, the National Weather Service was forecasting windy conditions for the Cayman Islands through at least Wednesday of next week, along with ‘rough’ or ‘very rough’ seas, with wave heights in excess of 10 feet on Tuesday and Wednesday as the expected major hurricane passes off to the east of the Cayman Islands. Based on the current guidance, on Monday and Tuesday, the Cayman Islands is also expected to be impacted by very long period of swells which will make boat channels dangerous. Various marine advisories are in effect through the weekend and into Monday. From Tuesday, 28 Oct. through to Thursday, 30 Oct., the highest ‘Marine Warning’ will be in effect for the Cayman Islands. Large waves are also expected to impact the normally more sheltered western coasts of Grand Cayman and the Sister Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, 29-30 Oct. The National Weather Service forecast shows that rain is ‘likely’ through the weekend and then ‘numerous rain showers’ are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Concerns for the people and the Island of Jamaica While the latest forecasts on Friday afternoon indicate that the Cayman Islands will most likely be spared the worst of Melissa, there continues to be significant concern about the potential impact on Jamaica. Elaine Harris, honourary vice consul of the Jamaican Consulate in the Cayman Islands, said she had been in touch with representatives of the Government in Jamaica and they were doing everything they could to get ready for the approaching hurricane, “They are in full preparedness mode and they are taking measures to protect and help people in areas prone to flooding.” Harris added, “In the aftermath of the hurricane, if Jamaica is directly impacted by the storm, we will see what we can do to help, whether that it’s helping to organise a relief effort and other humanitarian assistance to the people, but right now we just have to wait and see what happens. We are just hoping for the best and praying,” she said. Omar Afflick, former deputy director of Hazard Management Cayman Islands who now leads the business and continuity management division for CIBC First Caribbean International Bank, and is based in Kingston, said almost of all the businesses in Jamaica, including the banks, closed on Friday, 24 Oct. at 2pm and people were hunkering down and preparing for the onset of the cyclone.
