Not every week in college football is going to spark the kind of chaos that shakes up the rankings, even if every week gives voters something new to consider when trying to put together their ballot.
Even before the first game of Week 4 kicked off on Thursday, there was already going to be a lack of action up at the top of the rankings. Six of the top 14 teams in last week’s AP Top 25 poll were off this week, while Miami and Illinois were the only top-10 teams to play power conference competition. There were three games between ranked opponents that will have significant impact on the new poll set to be released on Sunday, but throughout the top 25, there were many teams who checked boxes and met expectations.
Still, voters are going to be wrestling with how to react to results such as Indiana’s stunning 63-10 throttling of Illinois. There’s an obvious move up for the Hoosiers and fall for the Fighting Illini, but the extent of both moves will not be consensus across all of the ballots. Additionally, Oklahoma will be one of the teams of the week after holding on through a tough test against Auburn at home. Now, though, we are comparing the Sooners to teams like Georgia and Oregon, who started the year with the benefit of the doubt from the AP voters.
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So even in a week where many ranked teams were off and others met expectations, there are still fascinating debates coming out of Saturdays results that will shape the new poll.
Here’s how we think the new AP Top 25 will look on Sunday after the Week 4 action.
1. Ohio State (Last week — 1): The Buckeyes were off in Week 4 and will be back in action next week at Washington on CBS.
2. Penn State (2): The Nittany Lions were off in Week 4 and will be back in action next week in a top-10 showdown against Oregon in Happy Valley.
3. LSU (3): After a couple of performances where the offense had been under scrutiny, the Tigers got in some good work against FCS Southeast Louisiana. We should not expect too much of an adjustment in the rankings, but a 28-point second quarter did allow the Tigers to get the backups in for some second-half action.
4. Miami (4): Things may have looked dicey as Miami nursed a six-point lead into the fourth quarter against Florida, but the Hurricanes’ strength along both lines of scrimmage proved to be the determining factor in a win that solidifies their spot as a top-five team in the sport.
5. Georgia (5): The Bulldogs were off in Week 4 and will be back in action next week against Alabama in Athens.
6. Oregon (6): The Ducks faced some early adversity against an Oregon State team that was clearly out to make a statement against its rival, but over the course of four quarters, the Beavers were clearly outmatched. The 41-7 win is quickly pushed into the rearview, though, and the switch has been flipped with all eyes on next week’s trip to Penn State.
7. Florida State (7): This team continues to run wild against lesser opponents, jumping out to a 35-7 lead in the first quarter and keeping the pedal down all the way to a 66-10 win against Kent State.
8. Oklahoma (11): Now at 4-0 with two wins against ranked opponents, Oklahoma has a case to move up even higher than what we are projecting here. But the gap between Oregon at No. 6 and Florida State at No. 7 was significant and could represent the tiers as the voters see them. So while the Sooners were near the bottom of this top-10 caliber tier last week, they now move to the top, possibly losing a couple tiebreakers to Florida State with voters who will value the Alabama win more than Oklahoma’s wins against Michigan and Auburn.
9. Texas (8): The Longhorns won’t get a truly fair re-evaluation from the AP voters until they get into SEC play on Oct. 4. The Longhorns handled business against Sam Houston but could get moved around on ballots as the No. 7 thru No. 11 spots were separated by less than 60 voting points last week.
10. Indiana (19): The takeaways from Indiana’s win will be widespread, and quite possibly reckless, but in terms of the rankings this will be an elimination of doubt as to whether Curt Cignetti has reloaded the roster to field another College Football Playoff contender. Indiana laid into Illinois in the same manner as they have lesser competition over the last two years, and that indicates a standard in place that you usually only see with top 10 teams.
11. Texas Tech (17): What a statement win from Texas Tech, which could break into the top 10 after a 34-10 win at Utah. The Red Raiders will get a major boost from the fact that the Utes were ranked last week and the game was in Salt Lake City, not to mention the way the game played out for anyone who watched live. Even in a hostile road environment, Texas Tech came out and took control of the game early and never let Utah into it.
12. Texas A&M (10): The Aggies were off in Week 4 after the win at Notre Dame and will be back in action at home against Auburn next week.
13. Iowa State (12): The Cyclones were off in Week 4 and will be back in action next week against Arizona.
14. Ole Miss (13): The upset potential was noted as Ole Miss prepared to welcome a Tulane team that had just taken down Duke, but the Rebels quickly put that to bed with a strong defensive performance and yet another impressive showing from quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. The transfer from DII Ferris State racked up 307 passing yards, 112 rushing yards and two touchdowns in a 45-10 win against the Green Wave.
15. Alabama (14): The Crimson Tide were off in Week 4 and will back in action next week in a huge road showdown against Georgia.
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16. Tennessee (15): The easiest way to flush a crushing overtime loss is to come out the next week and throw 42 points on the board in the first two quarters. That’s exactly what Tennessee did on Saturday, cruising to a 56-24 get-right win against UAB.
17. Georgia Tech (18): There was no sign of a hangover early as Haynes King and Georgia Tech jumped out to a 21-0 first quarter lead against Temple, then defended that advantage en route to a 45-24 win.
18. Vanderbilt (20): Clark Lea’s crew clearly remembered the way Georgia State pounced on a surging Vanderbilt team a year ago, and the Commodores let it be known early there would be no upset on this Saturday. After jumping out to an early lead, Vanderbilt ran it up to improve to 4-0 and keep their top 25 status heading into Week 5.
19. Michigan (21): It wasn’t always pretty, but Michigan leaned on its ground game for explosive plays and got the job done on the road at Nebraska. It was yet another development checkpoint for freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood and a strong showing in the trenches for a program that’s made that part of the field a priority year-in and year-out.
20. Missouri (23): What we have seen from Missouri’s rushing attack through four weeks represents a dynamic threat that will keep SEC defenses off balance with the variety of options and weapons the Tigers can deploy from the backfield. As a team, Missouri rolled up 285 rushing yards in a 29-20 win against South Carolina that meets the expectations of voters who will continue to support the Tigers, who are now 4-0.
21. Illinois (9): Dropping from No. 9 all the way to being out of the top 25 entirely seems a bit dramatic from AP voters who have shown a willingness to hang on to their prior positions. But there will be voters who don’t have Illinois on the ballot anymore after a trouncing at Indiana, and it’s put the Illini in that position where the next loss will have them bounced from the rankings.
22. Notre Dame (24): If the AP voters are going to stick by the Fighting Irish at 0-2, they probably aren’t going to bail now that Marcus Freeman’s crew has a win. Putting 56 points on Purdue showcased the high-end potential of Notre Dame’s one-two punch of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, but giving up 30 points also drives home some concerns about the defense. Still, the voters are going to stick by a team they believe in after victory, and that’s exactly what Notre Dame delivered on Saturday.
23. USC (25): The Trojans are currently in action against Michigan State.
24. BYU (NR): The Cougars were 26th in voting points last week and just went across the country to Greenville, North Carolina, and picked up a no-doubt, double-digit win at ECU. BYU has some important Big 12 games coming up that will test its standing as a conference title contender, but after going 3-0 in nonconference play seems to pacing towards repeating as a threat to win the league.
25. TCU (NR): This is a slight reach as TCU was 30th in voting points last week, but the rivalry spot of the Iron Skillet against SMU attracted enough attention to think voters were tuned in for Josh Hoover’s five touchdowns and the 35-24 win. The 3-0 start with two wins against power conference foes is worth a slight bump up in the pecking order, and with the heightened stage of the rivalry we’re projecting TCU cracks the top 25.