LINCOLN — As Nebraska enters the hunt for a Red October, let’s make a pact.
Fans. Media. All of us experts.
Let’s ban the word “should” from Husker football vocabulary.
As in, “Nebraska should win this game.”
Or, “Nebraska should win the next four games.”
And: “Nebraska should become bowl eligible in October.”
Everyone should know better.
The four-game stretch ahead — beginning with Michigan State on Saturday — cranked up the optimism machines this summer. Even some national media declared that Nebraska had an “easy schedule.”
Haven’t people seen enough Nebraska football in Big Ten games? Nothing is ever easy.
In the past 10 seasons, the Huskers have won more than three Big Ten games once (six in 2016). This league is a weekly meat grinder filled with teams that can beat you — especially if you aren’t adept at playing the Big Ten’s game.
The next four opponents, beginning with Michigan State and playmaking QB Aidan Chiles, are capable of ruining a lot of Husker preseason predictions.
Yes, this is Matt Rhule’s third season, Dylan Raiola’s second. Things were supposed to be different, NU is supposed to be better.
The Huskers are better in several areas.
But as the Michigan loss (by three points, mind you) painfully reminded: They aren’t there yet. The builders still have lifting and layers to fill in.
Much like Omaha roads, this project is still under construction.
This looks like a pretty good team that Rhule has assembled in Year 3 but — no offense intended to our old friends in the Big 12 — NU looks like a team that could challenge or win the Big 12.
The Big Ten is a different animal.
The 18-wheeler’s identity may be evolving but it’s still a line of scrimmage league. And NU wasn’t nearly good enough on either side of the trenches to beat a team like Michigan.
Rhule understands that. The Big Red is better up front on offense and reloading on defense. It’s a priority.
It’s also still a work in progress. That much has been clear the past bye week.
On Monday, Rhule hinted that there could be changes to the offensive line from the last game, when the group had seven sacks on its tab. Somebody may be picking up that tab.
Might it be left tackle?
Might it be time for Rhule to ride with Alabama transfer Elijah Pritchett, whose talent and physicality could override a false start or two?
Perhaps. One thing we know about Rhule is he isn’t hesitant to make a change, even a big one, if he thinks something is blocking progress.
He has done a good job of walking the tightrope between building and showing the urgency to win now. But after four games in the third season, the work is not finished.
Rhule said the staff is evaluating if the right players are getting the right snaps.
Defensive coordinator John Butler, whose squad ranks 108th in the FBS in rushing defense, said his inexperienced front seven worked on their weaknesses: “Getting blocked too much and not tackling well enough.”
One of the off-week moves Rhule is contemplating is back-up running back. The staff wants someone to step up and be as reliable as Emmett Johnson. They want to bolster a run game that ranks 11th in the league.
As offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen put it, he’s not going to call running plays if they aren’t going to work.
Holgorsen said he spent the weekend watching games of future opponents. The man himself is an interesting study. He is an accomplished offensive brainiac, a wily old fox capable of outsmarting many.
But he’s a rookie going through his first full Big Ten campaign.
Holgorsen marveled at a pair of intense practices last week, when the top offense and defense got after it. Offensive lineman Rocco Spindler called it a “violent, physical approach.”
Holgorsen said he never saw anything like it. And the man has seen just about everything.
But the master may be a student when it comes to how the Big Ten does business.
Holgorsen said he told his offensive line after watching a tape of Michigan, “Now we know what it looks like and what our bodies have to do and how our bodies need to play.”
Nebraska has veterans on the offensive line that are familiar with Big Ten style defenses. Same for Spindler, who started at Notre Dame a year ago.
I wonder if by “we,” Holgorsen was referring to himself, too.
Holgorsen added that his offensive tackles had a “million” reps pass blocking the past two weeks and would have a different attacking approach next time.
That fits with NU’s identity as a passing team. Same for the defense with defending the pass.
The way Raiola is playing right now and that veteran secondary, it’s the smart move. Build game plans around your strengths. That’s where NU is right now.
But all the comments during the off week seem to indicate what we already know: Nebraska is not ready to be a Big Ten running team or a Big Ten run-stopping team.
Not after four games anyway.
There’s room for growth and progress this month in games that should be close battles against opponents who won’t be intimidated by Nebraska.
The Huskers still have to earn that. Week by week.
But be aware of this, too: Michigan might be that good.
With a dynamic freshman quarterback who will only get better, that might be a team that wins the Big Ten and makes a playoff run. Nebraska just might not be at that level.
October will tell us.
The Big Ten can be a long, hard road. And you wonder if the Rhule Timetable has taken a slight detour because it takes longer to build an offensive and defensive line in the Big Ten.
There is potentially big stuff, fun stuff, ahead in November. But there’s a long way to go to get there.
Watch for the construction signs.
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Tom Shatel
Sports columnist
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