Copyright bbc
When Wilders won two years ago, Matthijs Rooduijn of the University of Amsterdam says he was able to harness the votes of more radical voters on the right who were worried about Islam and Eurosceptic along with less radical voters. "People called him Milders, a milder version of himself," says Prof Rooduijn, who points out that Wilders then put on ice many of his anti-Islam policies to appear more palatable. Although Wilders no longer talks of banning mosques and the Koran, he sees Islam as "the greatest existential threat to our freedom", a view Prof Rooduijn describes as "really a key element of his nativism - an exclusionary form of nationalism". In one TV debate, Wilders said "take a walk [in central Rotterdam] on shopping night on Saturday evening and it's like you're in Marrakesh; it's not the Netherlands any more". Left-wing leader Timmermans has accused him of scapegoating an entire section of society: "You're blaming Islam." But the risk Wilders faces now is of losing both the more radical voters, if they fail to turn out, and the less radical voters who could drift to other parties, including the anti-immigration Ja21. "Right now I don't think it's very likely Wilders will be part of a government coalition," Prof Rooduijn believes. It can take weeks - if not months - for parties to form a coalition, but if the centre right takes power, Christian Democrat Henri Bontenbal could be in the frame to lead it. His CDA party has staged a remarkable comeback in that only two years ago they won just five seats. Bontenbal believes Dutch voters are looking now at a return to "what I'll call 'boring politics'. The Netherlands is done with populism". He has not had a great campaign, though. Days after he defended the right of religious schools to teach that homosexual relationships were wrong, he went back on himself and admitted he had made a mistake.
