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A recent report by the European Commission highlights Portugal as the EU country with the most overvalued property market, far surpassing other nations, including Bulgaria. The study, “Housing in the European Union: Market developments, main drivers and policies,” shows that house prices across the EU rose by an average of 50% between 2014 and 2024, but in countries such as Hungary, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Portugal, Estonia, Bulgaria, and Poland, prices more than quadrupled, exceeding 200% growth. Portugal stands out as the country where house prices are most disconnected from their real value, with estimates indicating an overvaluation of around 35% by 2024. Analysts attribute this mainly to tourism, short-term rentals, and a sluggish construction sector. Platforms like Airbnb have intensified pressure on the housing market by reducing long-term rental availability, making cities like Lisbon and Porto particularly affected. Spain, notably Barcelona, faces similar issues due to overtourism, though the scale is smaller than in Portugal. Public housing remains extremely limited in Portugal, accounting for roughly 2% of the total housing stock, and the prevalence of vacant properties further constrains the market. The European Commission estimates that about one in six properties across the EU sits empty, with Portugal among the countries most affected alongside Bulgaria, Romania, Malta, Cyprus, and Hungary. The housing crisis has become a key political topic in Portugal, triggering public protests over rising rents and scarce affordable housing. Proposed government measures aim to boost construction, including targeted VAT incentives: new buildings costing up to EUR 648,000 will benefit from a 6% VAT rate, and the same rate will apply to rental units priced up to EUR 2,300 per month. These steps aim to stimulate housing supply while keeping units affordable.
