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Air travel is rebounding strongly in the post-pandemic world, and amid that global surge, one country stands out: Turkey (the Republic of Türkiye). According to recent analysis, Türkiye is showing the strongest airline capacity growth this year, surpassing even larger aviation markets. In our article, we’ll explore how and why Türkiye is leading in capacity expansion for 2025, and what role its major carriers, especially Turkish Airlines, its subsidiary AJet, and Pegasus Airlines are playing in fueling that growth. Türkiye’s strategic geographic position between Europe and Asia has long made it a natural maritime and trade hub, and, in the last 50 years, an aviation hub as well. But in 2025, its aviation ambitions are being matched by the numbers: more aircraft, more routes, more passengers. We will examine official traffic data, capacity forecasts, competitive dynamics, the role of specific popular routes (including the tourist market), new aircraft acquisitions by the flag carrier, and the risks ahead. You will learn how Turkish carriers are expanding, which segments are fueling growth, and what lies ahead for this high-growth market. Türkiye’s Capacity Surge: Leading The Charts In 2025 After analyzing this year's airline capacity trends, Türkiye is emerging as a standout market. For instance, OAG’s “Cautious Winter Capacity Growth” report highlights that Türkiye leads with a planned 9.3 % growth in capacity for the upcoming winter season, more than any other country. This positions Türkiye at the top of the global league in capacity expansion. That almost 10 % figure is not a coincidence. It’s rooted in structural shifts: hub expansions in Istanbul, aggressive route growth by both full-service and low-cost carriers, and expansion in secondary airports such as Sabiha Gökçen. In essence, Türkiye’s network build is fueling its capacity leadership, rather than just a domestic market rebound. Globally, international capacity is growing faster than domestic capacity (for example, OAG reports 5.8% international vs. 2.6% domestic year-on-year). This country is punching above its weight in that trend, with its carriers adding ambitious international routes while still maintaining strong domestic networks. That dual push is key to Türkiye's strong top‐level growth. But what are the key airlines that contribute to this growth? Turkish Airlines: Powering The Flag Carrier’s Expansion No discussion of Turkish aviation in 2025 can bypass Turkish Airlines (THY). The flag carrier is driving much of the capacity expansion, both domestically and internationally. In January 2025, THY carried 6.8 million passengers, an 8.2% increase over January 2024, with capacity (ASKs) rising by 7.5%, according to Aviation Turkey. That growth was supported by a jump in load factor, from 80.3% in January 2024 to 82.4% in January 2025. Turkish Airlines also increased its fleet to 477 aircraft by January (up from 440 a year earlier), and expanded its destination count from 340 to 352. In 2024, the airline signaled plans to reach a fleet of 530 by the end of 2025, subject to delivery schedules, as reported by Aviation Week. But that’s not the maximum figure. Earlier this year, Prof. Ahmet Bolat, Turkish Airlines Chairman of the Board and the Executive Committee, said to Boeing that: "The addition of these advanced Boeing aircraft to our fleet will not only enhance our operational capabilities but also become a significant element supporting Turkish Airlines' 2033 Vision of expanding our fleet to 800 aircraft." Turkish Airlines Traffic Summary (Jan 2025 vs Jan 2024): In 2025 and beyond, Turkish Airlines will not only add more flights and open new routes, but also aggressively modernize its fleet. A key part of this involves orders of widebody and narrowbody aircraft, enabling new long-haul routes while refreshing older equipment. With the Istanbul hub operating at scale, the airline is building air bridges to link Europe, Africa, the Americas, and Asia via Istanbul. New Aircraft Orders & Popular Routes: Building For The Future A growth strategy without fleet backing tends to falter, and Turkish Airlines knows this. In December 2023, the airline placed an order for 220 aircraft from Airbus, consisting of 150 Airbus A321s and 70 Airbus A350 widebodies (50 A350-900s, 15 A350-1000s, and 5 A350F). On top of that, a 2025 announcement outlined orders of up to 75 Boeing 787 Dreamliners (35-9s, 15-10s with options) and intent to purchase up to 150 Boeing 737 MAX single-aisle jets. What does this mean for route development? The A350-900/-1000 widebodies give Turkish Airlines more range and capacity than older models, opening up non-stop and high-density markets. For example, the carrier can ramp up service to the US, Africa, and Southeast Asia, offering greater passenger comfort and efficiency. The narrowbody A321s and 737 MAXs support regional hubs, intra-Europe and Middle East routes, as well as dense domestic flows. With this aircraft build-out, Turkish Airlines is positioning itself for the next decade of growth. Route-wise, Türkiye is deepening its presence on high-demand corridors. Among the most popular are flights between Russia and Türkiye: according to Cirium and Russian Tourism data, Istanbul remains the single most popular international destination from Moscow, with more than 133,000 seats scheduled on flights between Moscow and Istanbul in one recent month. Turkish Airlines itself lists direct flights from many Russian cities, also to Ankara, Antalya, Bodrum, and Dalaman. Notably, Türkiye remained the only NATO member country to maintain commercial flights to Russia despite various Western sanctions, thanks in part to its status as the most popular summer holiday destination for Russians. The Russian-Turkish connection runs deep: Russian outbound tourism grew by some 7% in the first half of 2025 compared to a year earlier, with estimates that one in every five Russians traveling abroad flew to this Mediterranean country. This tourism surge directly drives capacity growth for Turkish carriers. The combination of new aircraft, strong leisure demand (especially from Russia and the Middle East), and a strong hub network gives Türkiye a potent growth story. The Rise Of AJet And Pegasus: Diversifying The Market In 2024, Turkish Airlines spun off its low-cost unit (formerly AnadoluJet) into a standalone carrier now called AJet, to scale low-cost growth without diluting the Turkish Airlines brand. AJet is targeting aggressive growth in 2025: it aims for ASK growth of around 13% and 23 million passengers, while expanding its international footprint. Previous reports indicate negotiations for 36 new jets via lessors, including Airbus models, to offset Boeing delays. Meanwhile, Pegasus Airlines continues to hold the mantle of Türkiye’s local low-cost leader. Its load factor for 2025 rose to around 87.7 % (up 2.9 percentage points), and it has grown ASKs by 52 % since 2019. Pegasus has also placed a firm order for 100 Boeing 737 MAX 10 jets, with deliveries from 2028 onward. This allows Pegasus to grow domestic, regional, and leisure-market capacity aggressively whilst maintaining lean operations. Together, Turkish Airlines, AJet, and Pegasus create a comprehensive Turkish aviation network: full-service global, cost-sensitive regional/leisure, and ultra-value domestic & near-international. That layered model gives Türkiye resilience and flexibility to capture both transfer traffic and point-to-point leisure flows, supporting overall capacity growth leadership. Key Drivers Fueling Türkiye’s Aviation Ascent Many underlying forces converge to lift the Turkish aviation sector higher than most. For one, Istanbul sits at a geographic sweet spot: between Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, enabling efficient transfer traffic. Its primary hub, Istanbul Airport, serves more countries than any other airline network in the world. In addition, Turkish authorities are investing in airport capacity and infrastructure. The secondary hub, Sabiha Gökçen Airport on Istanbul’s Asian side, plus strong growth in Antalya and Bodrum for leisure, dramatically boost the country's effective capacity. The new aircraft orders noted above (A350s, 787s, 737 MAXs, A321neos) underpin the capability to open new routes and increase frequency. Comparative Capacity Growth: Top 3 Countries Source: OAG analysis Beyond geography and infrastructure, carrier strategy also matters: Turkish Airlines combining full-service ambition with a low-cost sub-brand (AJet), Pegasus scaling aggressively all across Europe and the Middle East, alignment with tourism promotion, and leveraging the isolated yet big Russian outbound market all contribute. Turkish travel industry rebound creates tailwinds – Russians favor Türkiye in large numbers, and Turkish Airlines capitalizes on it. For example, in 2023, Russia and Türkiye agreed to increase flights to more than 1,300 per week, with Turkish carriers combined operating ~400 of them, according to Travel Tomorrow. Risks, Challenges & What’s Next For Turkish Aviation Even as Türkiye leads capacity growth in 2025, it must navigate headwinds. Rising fuel prices, currency volatility, regional geopolitical risk, and supply-chain constraints on aircraft deliveries could all erode margins. Airlines must balance expansion with prudence. Aircraft delivery slots remain tight, potentially leading to delays or lease constraints for Turkish carriers. AJet is already negotiating with lessors to fill gaps. Moreover, serving the Russia-Türkiye flights entails reputational and regulatory risks. Although Türkiye currently remains the only NATO country still flying commercial flights to Russia despite international sanctions, this position may be scrutinized further. Despite Western sanctions on many carriers operating in Russia, Turkish carriers maintain strong connectivity on Moscow-Istanbul, Moscow-Antalya, and other routes. Oversupply on specific routes (if frequencies scale too fast) could lead to yield degradation. For example, in May 2025, Turkish Airlines had to cancel dozens of flights between Russia and Türkiye due to Ukrainian drone strikes and Russian airspace restrictions, as reported by The Moscow Times. Still, Türkiye’s position remains strong. With its hub model operating at scale, momentum in passenger traffic, and a favorable geographic advantage, the country is well placed to sustain its aviation surge. The key will be execution: rolling out new aircraft on the right routes, maintaining yields as capacity scales up, and managing regional risk. If the carriers execute smartly, Türkiye could close 2025 with record passenger numbers and an enviable global share in aviation growth.
