You’ve read about the three-way Republican primary in Massachusetts to challenge Democratic Gov. Maura Healey as she runs for a second term in 2026.
And Democratic U.S. Sen. Ed Markey could end up facing at least two challengers as U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton, D-6th District, reportedly moves ever closer to launching a primary campaign.
So there’s sure to be no shortage of drama in the Bay State next year.
But a quick look beyond the border reveals that some of the most competitive races of an already consequential midterm cycle will be taking place in Massachusetts’s neighboring states.
Key U.S. Senate contests in New Hampshire (an open seat) and a perennially competitive race in Maine will devour headlines and cash alike.
A possible gubernatorial primary in the Granite State, and rumblings of a Texas-style redistricting fight also are bubbling up.
If any — or all — of these scenarios happen, the results would reverberate across the six-state New England region — and the nation.
The lay of the land
First, a bit of background, and a word about the math before we get rolling.
Let’s start with this: Midterm campaigns almost always end up being bad news for the party that holds the White House. And that’s true no matter which party has the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
In 2010, then-President Barack Obama bemoaned his party’s “shellacking” during the Tea Party wave year that saw Republicans retake the U.S. House, even as his fellow Democrats clung to the Senate by their fingernails. The GOP used its clout to frustrate Obama’s agenda.
Republican President Donald Trump suffered a similar reversal during his first term in 2018, when Democrats retook the House, installing U.S. Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., as speaker, setting the stage for a pair of historic impeachment votes.
Which brings us back to 2026.
Republicans currently hold a 219-213 margin in the U.S. House, with three seats technically vacant. Republicans are so far refusing to swear in U.S. Rep-elect Adelita Grijalva, D-Ariz., who won a special election for her late father’s seat last month.
That slender edge prompted the redistricting battles in California and Texas over the summer as Democrats and Republicans (with Trump’s blessing) battled for control of the 435-seat chamber.
Republicans hold a more secure 53-47 edge in the Senate, but that has not dissuaded Democrats from trying to chip away at that advantage.
“History rarely repeats, but it often rhymes. Today, the political environment — defined by an angry Democratic base and unease among independents — feels like a throwback to eight years ago after President Donald Trump was elected the first time,” David Wasserman, an analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, wrote in June.
Control of governors’ mansions also matters. Right now, Republicans hold 27 of those posts, compared to 23 for Democrats, according to Ballotpedia. In 38 states, there are trifectas, where one party controls the executive branch and both chambers of the Legislature.
With that in mind, here’s a state-by-state look at the important races across New England and what that means for the balance of power on Capitol Hill.
New Hampshire
Things are heating up in the race for the Granite State’s open U.S. Senate seat, which is being vacated by Democratic U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.
At the moment, former U.S. Sen. Scott Brown, who spent one term representing the Bay State, has the Republican field all to himself after GOP state Sen. Dan Innis pulled the plug on his candidacy, according to the New Hampshire Bulletin.
On his way out the door, Innis threw his backing to former U.S. Sen. John E. Sununu, R-N.H., who has publicly said he’s considering a run but hasn’t officially launched a campaign, the online news outlet reported.
In the Democratic primary, U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas, D-N.H., who jumped into the contest in April, faces progressive organizer Karishma Manzur, according to the New Hampshire Bulletin. State Rep. Jared Sullivan has also announced a run.
The seat was marked “lean Democrat” in the Cook Report’s latest ranking list.
An added wrinkle: Pappas’ seat is now open as a result of his Senate bid, prompting a crowded field of aspirants.
Meanwhile, Cory Lewandowski, a top Trump ally, is reportedly considering a GOP primary bid against incumbent Gov. Kelly Ayotte over her resistance to redistricting, according to Politico. Ayotte was elected to a two-year term in 2024.
Trump has been turning up the pressure on Ayotte to redraw the Granite State’s congressional map as the GOP looks to protect its House majority.
Maine
In Maine, the race for U.S. Senate has moved to “toss-up” now that Democratic Gov. Janet Mills has entered the race against long-serving GOP U.S. Sen. Susan Collins.
Mills, who very publicly fought with Trump over transgender rights earlier this year, does not have the Democratic field to herself. Other candidates include Graham Platner, 41, a veteran, oysterman and first-time candidate, who describes himself as a “New Deal Democrat.”
Their candidacies complicate matters for Collins, who has long positioned herself as a swing vote in a sharply divided Senate.
“While Collins has defied electoral expectations for decades, the political environment today is more polarized than ever, which makes Collins’ ability to effectively straddle partisan lines more challenging,” Amy Walter wrote for the Cook Report on Tuesday.
One more race of note: Incumbent U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, a moderate who won a district that Trump carried handily in 2024, has a primary from his left, courtesy of state Auditor Matt Dunlap, according to Politico.
Both Golden and U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree, also a Democrat, are up next year.
Connecticut
In the Nutmeg State, the big question is whether incumbent Gov. Ned Lamont, a Democrat, will seek a third term.
Recent reporting tends to point in that direction, but it’s less clear what he’d do if he did.
“You can’t sit around and talk about the past,” he told The CTMirror in an interview earlier this month. “That’s for damn sure.”
An announcement could come after November’s municipal election, the online news outlet reported.
Rhode Island
In the Ocean State, there’s a similar focus on the race for governor, where incumbent Gov. Dan McKee, a Democrat, faces a challenge from Helena Foulkes, a Democrat and former executive at CVS, according to The Boston Globe.
The fight between McKee and Foulkes already has taken a nasty turn, with McKee’s campaign releasing an ad claiming that CVS fueled the opioid crisis during Foulkes’ tenure with the company, according to the Rhode Island Current.
There’s also the question of whether Rhode Island state House Speaker Joe Shekarchi is going to jump into the Democratic nominating contest for the top spot, the newspaper reported.
Attorney General Peter Neronha, a Democrat who’s been in the company of Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea J. Campbell and other attorneys general bedeviling Trump with a blizzard of litigation, also is being mentioned as a potential candidate
The bottom line
Less than 13 months remain until Election Day 2026, and much can, and will, change between now and then. But given New England’s interdependence, these races across the border are worth watching.