CLEVELAND, Ohio — If a change was going to be made, now was the time.
Kevin Stefanski and the Browns promoted rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel to starter, while demoting Joe Flacco to second-string.
It’s a fresh start in the pocket for an offense currently ranked 31st in points (14.0), 20th rank in passing yards (195.0), and 29th rank in yards gained per play (4.2).
There was a stagnation that stuck to the offense by the hip.
With Gabriel in the pocket, who’ll make his debut this Sunday versus Minnesota, there’s hope for a more fluid feel to the unit.
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Dillon Gabriel on being named QB1, what he’s learned from Joe Flacco, looking ahead to London, and more: Transcript
We don’t know what to expect. Gabriel is still a rookie, and the only action we’ve seen from him was during the preseason.
But we can take and apply from Flacco’s four appearances, what Gabriel could play up to, and even keep away from.
We’ll do so by choosing five numbers from Flacco’s tenure through the lens of analytics.
4.3
Cleveland’s offense depends on a repeat of swing and screen passes. However, that results in the offense moving at the rate of baby steps.
And while Flacco got rid of the ball on an average of 2.85 seconds, it didn’t result much in terms of completed air yards.
Flacco recorded the seventh-fewest completion air yards (4.3) among quarterbacks, per Next Gen Stats.
For comparison, of the 36 qualifying quarterbacks, Flacco is one of 13 to average under 5.0 CAY.
In fact, 74 of his 93 completed passes were either behind the line of scrimmage, or traveled no farther than nine yards, per Pro Football Focus.
Not only did the offense pertain to the shorter passes, but Flacco wasn’t given much leeway in passes travel 10 or more yards downfield.
12
Between Flacco’s lack of mobility and an offensive line with poor blocking, Throwaways inadvertently became part of Cleveland’s game plan.
On numerous occasions, the opposing defensive got to the pocket, forcing Flacco to throw the ball away.
At other times, Flacco tried to escape the defensive pressure and find a target while on the move, but would eventually throw it away.
This resulted in Flacco leading all quarterbacks in throwaways (12), per Pro Football Reference.
Despite this, it’s better than risking a bad turnover.
A prime example of this dates back to the Week 2 loss to Baltimore.
Flacco felt Baltimore’s Roquan Smith chasing him down, and instead of throwing it away, he made a dangerous pass downfield to a tightly covered David Njoku.
That resulted in Nate Wiggins intercepting the pass, and eventually to the Ravens scoring four plays later.
If it ever comes to that, living for the next down is the safe way to go.
38.7%
When keeping things clean in the pocket, that can lead to a more accurate pass.
But everything doesn’t come clean. Defensive pressure is on go, and makes a quarterback’s pass even more tedious to throw.
As for Flacco handling the pocket when facing pressure, Flacco ranks 31st in completion percentage when under pressure (38.7%), per PFF.
For comparison, there are 37 qualifying quarterbacks for this specific statistic.
Flacco remains one of eight quarterbacks to average a sub-40.0% completion rate when under pressure.
6
Flacco was prone to turnovers.
Cleveland currently sits in a four-way tie in giveaways (eight), all of which Flacco accounted for, and six of which were interceptions.
All turnovers aren’t created equal, but a way to really understand Flacco’s tendency for turnovers is through his turnover-worthy plays.
Turnover-worthy plays, or TWPs’ for short, is a PFF statistic that tracks a pass attempt’s high percentage chance to be intercepted, or the quarterback’s poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling.
Flacco ties for eighth in TWPs’ (six), per PFF.
22.2%
When the Browns did elect for a deep pass, it didn’t end on a successful note.
Once Week 4 concluded, Flacco tied for fourth in passes of 20 or more yards downfield (18). Of the 18 attempts, only four were completed, and three ended up interceptions.
This converts to a 22.2% completion rate on deep passes, which ties for 30th among quarterbacks, per PFF.
One can point out the ongoing drops from the receiving corps, but that doesn’t discount Flacco’s inefficiency when throwing deep.
An area he once excelled in.
Gabriel
The ‘gunslinger’ moniker is stereotypically linked to quarterbacks of Flacco’s size.
Gabriel doesn’t have the ideal size, but has displayed a similar skill that’s given Stefanski and company, reassurance that he can lead the offense.
During his final season at Oregon, Gabriel tied for 11th in completion rate when under pressure (53.8%), per PFF.
As it relates to turnover-worthy plays, he only recorded eight in 2024, showing an ability for making a play of less risk.
And on deep passes of 20 or more yards, he Gabriel recorded eight touchdowns and one interception, and ranked third among quarterbacks in completion percentage (56.3%), per PFF.
Conclusion
Flacco’s time came as the starter came and went. Now it’s Gabriel’s time to take advantage of the opportunity.
He can do so with an increase in completed air yards, efficiency when under pressure, and better ball-protection.
Gabriel’s been asked of what he’s learned from Flacco, but that can translate in the area of analytics.
And with these important statistical categories above, Gabriel can learn where to thrive, and where to survive.