Copyright forbes
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva gestures as he speaks during the inauguration of the Nova Doca Linear Park in Belem, Para state, Brazil on October 2, 2025. The project is the first infrastructure considered a legacy of the upcoming 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30). (Photo by THIAGO GOMES / AFP) (Photo by THIAGO GOMES/AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images Two weeks before Brazil hosts the COP30 UN climate summit in Belém this November, widely described by diplomats as the most important since Paris 10 years ago — the Brazilian government approved new oil drilling at the mouth of the Amazon. It’s not the first time Brazil’s government has made such moves on the eve of major climate talks — a pattern that now threatens to overshadow the very summit it’s preparing to lead. The Decision — and Its Timing On October 20, 2025, Brazil’s environmental agency Ibama approved Petrobras to drill an exploratory well in Block FZA-M-59, off the mouth of the Amazon — one of the world’s richest marine ecosystems. The decision arrived barely two weeks before COP30 in Belém. Environmental groups described the timing as an “act of sabotage” that undermines both Brazil’s credibility and the summit’s agenda. “Beyond ending deforestation, degradation, and fires in the Amazon, it’s now urgent to reduce all fossil fuel emissions,” said Carlos Nobre, co-chair of the Scientific Panel for the Amazon, Speaking to the Brazilian business newspaper Valor Economico. Brazilian climatologist and co-chair of the Scientific Panel for the Amazon, Carlos Nobre, works after an interview with AFP, in Sao Jose dos Campos, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, on September 27, 2024. For years, Carlos Nobre maintained an optimistic discourse on the future of the planet. But the renowned Brazilian scientist is now very concerned about the "rapid" rise in temperature amid the droughts and fires that are hitting South America particularly hard. (Photo by Nelson ALMEIDA / AFP) (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA/AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images MORE FOR YOU “There is no justification for any new oil exploration. On the contrary, rapidly phasing out existing fossil fuel projects is essential,” Carlos Nobre, co-chair of the Scientific Panel for the Amazon, speaking to the Brazilian business newspaper Valor Economico Exploration in the block had been denied in 2023 for inadequate spill-response plans. That it was suddenly approved, and precisely now, struck observers as more than bureaucratic coincidence. If it were a technical matter, it could have waited. Instead, it arrived just in time to cloud Brazil’s moment as global host. The Meaning Behind the Timing Timing in climate politics is never random. By approving drilling now, Brazil effectively locked in new oil projects before any COP30 decision could call for a fossil fuel phase-out. The message: domestic oil policy is off-limits. Petrobras hailed the permit as “an achievement for Brazilian society.” But public opinion tells another story: a Datafolha poll shows 61% of Brazilians oppose drilling near the Amazon coast, while 77% support ending deforestation by 2030. Some experts, speaking off the record, argue that while President Lula is committed to defending the Amazon, his views on energy are rooted in the past. “He sees oil and gas revenues as crucial for attacking poverty and redistributing wealth yet existing oil and gas production has done little to tackle these issues,” said one source. RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL - APRIL 13: A man walks out of a garage at Petrobras headquarters, Brazil's Largest State-Owned Company (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images) Getty Images Petrobras: Quick Facts Q&A Petróleo Brasileiro S.A., better known as Petrobras is Brazil’s mixed-capital, state-controlled oil & gas company. Founded in 1953 and headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, it is one of the world’s largest producers of offshore oil. The Brazilian federal government is the controlling shareholder, by law it must hold at least 50 % plus one of the voting capital. As of February 2024 it directly held about 50.26 % of the voting common shares and 28.67 % of total share capital. Additional stakes are held by state-investment arms such as BNDES and BNDESPar, making the broader state-related ownership higher. The remainder is publicly traded on the São Paulo exchange (B3) and in ADR form on the NYSE (ticker PBR), with large institutional investors among the top holders. Petrobras focuses on offshore oil & gas exploration and production (especially its pre-salt fields), refining, biofuels, and energy distribution. Its ultra-deepwater pre-salt assets are a key competitive advantage. On the NYSE (ticker PBR), the total return (price + dividends) in 2023 was around +83%. In 2024 the total return was about –6%. In 2025 year-to-date the return is approximately –8%. Others have told We Don’t Have Time that it is all about boosting the economic viability and foreign investor attractiveness of Brazil’s majority state owned oil and gas company Petrobas. Whatever Is behind Lula’s thinking, for the COP30 Presidency, led by Ana Toni and Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago, the timing could not be worse. Instead of entering Belém with momentum, Brazil arrives having to explain itself. Claudio Angelo, a former award winning science journalist and author, who is today Head of International Policy at Observatório do Clima, a network of 160 Brazilian NGOs, summed up the mood on the eve of COP30: ”I wish this was just a bad practical joke – where the host of a climate conference is signaling to the world that one oil well matters more than the COP” ”But unfortunately Brazil and president Lula have decided to forgo their leadership in the multilateral process in the name of oil revenues. This is a double act of sabotage — against humanity and against the COP30 presidency, which has been trying to bring this conference to a decent outcome,” he told We Don’t Have Time. A warning from the United Nations Speaking at the Launch of UNEP’s An Eye on Methane Report 2025 on October 22, Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the UN Environment Programme, addressed Brazil’s recent oil decision after a question from We Don’t Have Time, Nick Nuttall during the Q&A session. “The fact that Brazil has made this decision, a sovereign decision of course, but from our side we very much hope that we will not see further expansion of oil, gas and coal production in any of the UN member states,” Inger Andersen, Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) “The fact that there are still new oil, gas and coal exploration going on is, of course, regrettable”. She stressed that the UN Secretary-General has made it clear he supports the International Energy Agency’s analysis — that meeting the Paris goals requires no new oil, gas or coal development. Andersen added that the world must invest heavily in renewable energy and that developing countries need stronger financial support to do so. Her comments underline the widening gap between Brazil’s national energy strategy and the UN’s global call to end fossil fuel expansion, a contradiction that now sits at the center of COP30. Brazil’s Climate Promises DUBAI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - DECEMBER 2: In this handout image supplied by COP28, President of Brazil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Marina Silva, Minister of the Environment and Climate Change of Brazil during the Nature Season at Al Waha Theatre during day two of the high-level segment of the UNFCCC COP28 Climate Conference at Expo City Dubai on December 2, 2023 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The COP28, which is running from November 30 through December 12, brings together stakeholders, including international heads of state and other leaders, scientists, environmentalists, indigenous peoples representatives, activists and others to discuss and agree on the implementation of global measures towards mitigating the effects of climate change. (Photo by Stuart Wilson / COP28 via Getty Images) COP 28 via Getty Images Lula’s comeback was built on climate credibility. He halted much of Bolsonaro’s environmental rollback and oversaw a 50% drop in Amazon deforestation. Brazil raised its emission-reduction goal to 53% by 2030 and pledged net-zero by 2050, achievements hailed as proof that “Brazil is back.” But his government is now expanding the very sector the world must wind down. Scientists warn that developing the 5.6 billion-barrel potential of Block 59 could release about 2.3 billion tons of CO₂, more than Germany emits in three years. The estimate is based on Petrobras’ own reserve figures for the Amapá (Block 59) area, reported by Reuters, and U.S. EPA emissions factors of roughly 0.43 tons of CO₂ per barrel burned. Brazil’s next licensing round includes 47 additional blocks in the same basin. Each new permit chips away at the moral authority Lula once claimed at the COP28 UN summit in Dubai. Brazil’s Dual Trajectories Brazil’s oil output keeps rising even as deforestation falls, exposing the tension between its economic and climate ambitions. Data for oil production (million barrels/day) from 2018–2020 is sourced from OPEC’s Annual Statistical Bulletin 2023, and 2020–2024 from OPEC’s Annual Statistical Bulletin 2025. The 2025 oil projection (3.8 million barrels/day) is based on IEA estimates reported in Oil & Gas Journal. Deforestation data (km²) for 2018 is derived from MAPBIOMAS’s 2019 report (MBI-relatorio-desmatamento-2019-FINAL5.pdf), and 2019–2024 from MAPBIOMAS Alerta’s RAD 2024 report (RAD-2024_Destaques_ENG_14.05.2025_FINAL.pdf). The 2025 deforestation projection (12,000 km²) is estimated based on Brasil de Fato’s May 15, 2025, article, assuming a slight decline from 2024’s 12,421 km² due to continued policy enforcement and reduced agribusiness-driven clearing, despite rising fire risks. Wedonthavetime.org Sometimes timing says more than any speech. In December 2023, as world leaders met in Dubai for COP28 to negotiate the first global agreement to “transition away from fossil fuels,” Brazil quietly announced it would join OPEC+, the oil-producers’ alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The news broke the same week Lula took the stage and, with tears in his eyes, vowed to defend the planet. While he spoke of climate justice, OPEC was circulating a leaked letter urging members to “proactively reject any text or formula that targets fossil fuels.” Brazil’s entry into OPEC+ didn’t just coincide with a climate summit, it collided with it. Lula defended the move as pragmatic: Brazil, he said, needs “a seat at the table” to influence producers from within. But in the theater of climate diplomacy, the timing is the message. Whose Side Is President Lula On? Lula’s story has always been one of dualities, the trade-unionist turned statesman, the pragmatist who preaches morality. But his government’s rhythm has revealed a pattern too consistent to ignore: December 2023: Brazil announced plans to join OPEC+ during the first week of COP28. May 2025: Lula’s Senate allies passed a sweeping environmental-licensing bill just a week before the UN Climate Meetings in Bonn, where the COP30 agenda was set. October 2025: Ibama approved Amazon drilling barely two weeks before COP30. Three pivotal moments. Three politically explosive decisions. All landing just before global climate negotiations. Coincidence or choreography? Lula’s defenders call it balance; critics call it betrayal. Perhaps it’s both — a leader trying to please two irreconcilable audiences. But as Brazil prepares to host COP30, the world is asking what Lula himself cannot postpone much longer: Can he stand on both sides of history, or will he finally have to choose one? What Fossil Interests Fear Most At COP28, a leaked OPEC letter revealed the cartel’s deepest anxiety: that some members might break ranks and support a fossil phase-out. “Pressure against fossil fuels may reach a tipping point with irreversible consequences,” warned the secretary-general. That fear, of internal defection, explains why Brazil’s timing matters so much. Every ambiguous gesture from Brasília reassures producers that their coalition remains intact. And every new drilling license chips away at the fragile momentum to move beyond oil. COP30 Leadership: Fighting to Keep Credibility Ana Toni, CEO of COP30, remains clear-eyed about the contradiction: “All countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels; that’s our common ground. Let’s not go back on this, as there’s an agreement in place.”, Ana Toni, CEO of COP30, in an interview from august with Eco-Business. Toni insists COP30 will focus on delivering that transition: tripling renewables, protecting forests, and financing a just transition. She admits Brazil has contradictions but says facing them is the only way forward. Observers say the credibility of COP30 now rests on her team’s ability to prove these contradictions don’t define the outcome. We Don’t Have Time has reached out to Ana Toni for comment about the information presented in this article, both directly and through the COP30 press office, but have not received a response before publication. Earlier this year, during the Pre-COP30 UN Climate Meeting in June, she was asked about this very topic by Nick Nuttall, the co-author of this article. Her response can be seen in the video below. The Timing Test of COP30 Many climate advocates will, rightly, criticize the contradictory nature of Brazil’s leadership, expanding oil while hosting a summit meant to end it. But timing cuts both ways. The same choreography that now seems to undermine COP30 could be leveraged to strengthen it. By exposing Brazil’s oil plans, advocates can demand binding commitments at COP30, such as a concrete fossil fuel phase-out plan, to hold Brazil accountable and amplify the summit’s urgency. We should ask ourselves: isn’t provoking outrage before the summit exactly what fossil fuel interests want? To make the meeting look divided and irrelevant before it even begins? If the summit in Belém delivers concrete steps toward transitioning away from fossil fuels and tripling renewable energy capacity, as agreed in Dubai; phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, as promised in Glasgow; protecting nature; cutting methane, as expected in Baku; and securing real finance for a just transition — then Brazil’s contradictions may yet resolve into leadership. Because in the end, true leadership means living within the planetary boundaries and respecting what science has already made unmistakably clear. So let’s not mistake the prelude for the finale. Those who believe in climate action should be careful not to judge the COP30 Presidency before the summit but after. Because that is when we’ll truly see whose timing served the planet, and whose served delay. Written by Ingmar Rentzhog, climate communicator and Founder & CEO of Wedonthavetime.org . Follow me on Forbes and LinkedIn for stories at the intersection of science, economy, and the clean-energy revolution. With additional reporting by Nick Nuttall, previous official spokeperson for the UN Paris Agreement, journalist and presenter at Wedonthavetime.org who is also a contributor to Forbes. Editorial StandardsReprints & Permissions
