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Back in June, when it was revealed that Reform UK were actively considering the possibility of setting up branches in Northern Ireland in order to contest elections, many scoffed. On Monday the Belfast Telegraph revealed the results of a LucidTalk poll question which for the first time provides data on the potential support for Reform candidates. It makes sobering reading for the leadership of the three main unionist parties. Now before looking at the figures, and their implications, there is an important caveat. It has been repeatedly found that voters can be poor at predicting their future choices in response to hypothetical questions. These questions can often fail because most people do not follow politics intensely, they may have only a vague impression (if any) about the personality or policy they are being asked to pass an opinion on. LucidTalk asked its sample of voters this question: “It is rumoured that Nigel Farage’s Reform UK may run candidates in NI. What is your view about possibly voting for Reform?” Voters had to choose from four possible answers to the question: I am 100% confident that I would vote for Reform I may vote Reform I am 100% certain that I would NOT vote for Reform I wouldn’t vote / I would spoil my vote As hypothetical questions go this is a well-constructed one. It introduces the name of Nigel Farage up front because it is likely be better known than the party name. It is unlikely that many voters are unaware of Nigel Farage. Most will have already formed some opinion of him. This reduces the risk inherent in many hypothetical questions that people simply pick a reply which keeps their future options open because they genuinely have no idea. But the key strength of this poll is that it avoids the normal response options which run something like: a) Very likely b) Quite likely c) Unlikely d) Don’t Know. If a voter replies that they are 100% confident that they would or would not vote Reform, they have given a very firm commitment – no ‘ifs’, no ‘buts’. For this reason I think we can treat the answers as meaningful – although subject to change in the light of future events. What about those who answered, “I may vote Reform”? We know that they are open to persuasion, but we cannot know what proportion of them will end up with Reform and what proportion are more susceptible to the urgings of their current party of choice. We can, however, be confident that those who do not end up giving Reform their first preference will be a fertile source of transfers. As expected almost all Reform UK votes would come from unionist parties. 7% of Alliance supporters say they are potential Reform voters, as do 4% of SDLP and 2% of Sinn Féin’s. For some reason 1% of SF voters said that they would either not vote or would spoil their votes. We can take those who are 100% certain to vote Reform UK as that party’s minimum First Preference vote share. For the maximum we can add those who say they ‘may’ vote Reform. This is the result: On the left of the chart above are the poll figures as reported on Saturday which did not include Reform. In the middle you can see how the party shares change if only those who stated they were 100% certain switch to Reform. Even at this level Reform is a serious contender with the other unionist parties. 9% would point to somewhere around 8 seats in an Assembly election. Looking at the 2022 results in individual constituencies there are four which seem almost certain to return a Reform MLA: East Londonderry, Lagan Valley, North Antrim and North Down. Three of these would be seats currently held by the DUP, while North Antrim might come from the UUP instead. Then there are six others which look too close to call: East Belfast, North Belfast, East Antrim, South Antrim, Strangford and Upper Bann. Reform could reasonably hope to take a seat in at least three of them, more if the transfers went well for them. In all cases a seat currently held by the DUP would be under threat, but in two of those there is a lesser chance that the UUP could be the ones that lose out instead. But the TUV would also be significant losers. The seats Reform gains would almost all be ones the TUV would otherwise have been hoping to secure for themselves. The TUV might still make some gains, but at best they would have to share the spoils with Reform. If a quarter of those who say that they ‘may’ vote Reform are added to those who are 100% certain to do so, the Reform vote share would match the DUP’s – setting up a close contest to be the leading unionist party. If instead one third of ‘may’ voters were to join those who are certain, Reform takes a clear lead and could reasonably aspire to be the biggest unionist party in Stormont. This would set them up to contest at least some of the potentially winnable Northern Ireland Westminster seats – and it is possible that some sitting MP’s may decide to retire at the next election. Sammy Wilson, Gregory Campell and Jim Allister could all be at or approaching 81 by the end of the next Parliament, and Jim Shannon 79. Lagan Valley does not have a unionist MP. Nigel Farage is not naïve enough to believe that his current spectacular poll leads will inevitably hold through to the next election. Most mid-term leads start to tighten as the election date approaches. If he did hold any illusions, they would have been shattered by last week’s Caerphilly by-election to the Welsh Senedd. Reform had been hoping to win. The Survation by election poll a few days before had put them 4% points ahead of Plaid Cymru. In the event Plaid won by 11% points, up 19% from the Senedd general election. But what was really astonishing was the turnout. The highest of the 5 Senedd by elections held so far, and an incredible 6.1% points higher than in the Senedd general election. Normally by election turnouts are well below general election levels. The evidence suggests that the possibility of a Reform win prompted more voters to cast their ballot and a high level of anti-Reform tactical voting. Farage knows that every single Westminster seat will be vital at the next election. The prospect that he could augment his tally with contributions from Northern Ireland will make Reform determined to make the attempt if at all possible. The DUP might be hoping to persuade Farage that he has no need to do so, that they would lend him their support in a hung parliament. It worked out so well for Theresa May.
