Heading into the 2025 college football season, star quarterbacks looked like they would be the sport’s biggest headliners. Signal-callers in the SEC in particular seemed poised to become household names (if they weren’t already) — with Arch Manning taking the reins at Texas and DJ Lagway returning to Florida, Garrett Nussmeier to LSU and LaNorris Sellers to South Carolina. All four ranked among the top seven preseason favorites to win the Heisman Trophy, according to DraftKings.
Through Week 3, none of those quarterbacks rank in the top 50 of the Football Bowl Subdivision in passing yardage per game nor the top 20 in completion percentage. Manning got booed by Texas fans while playing UTEP at home on Saturday. Lagway threw five interceptions vs. LSU last weekend as Florida fell to 1-2. Sellers got hurt against Vanderbilt amid a rather lackluster start to the season. And Nussmeier may be undefeated, but he spearheads an offense that ranks 95th in the nation and scored just one offensive touchdown in the Tigers’ win over the Gators.
So, maybe the quarterbacks who dominated offseason headlines and mock drafts aren’t necessarily the ones who will define this college football season. At least, not right now.
This brings us to the Trust Meter, a new feature we’re unveiling here at NBC Sports. Four times this season — in roughly three-game increments — I’ll take a look at some of the biggest names in the sport as well as the quarterbacks of College Football Playoff contenders. This list will change depending on what’s happening in the sport at that time. For example, I’ve chosen not to include Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik nor Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr because each of their teams has two losses already; those teams are on the outside looking in at CFP contention. Sellers isn’t included due to the injury he sustained last weekend, and Lagway isn’t included because his program is on such a downward spiral it may fire his head coach soon. I contemplated including Joey Aguilar, Tennessee’s burgeoning star, but didn’t want to have a full half of the list made up of quarterbacks from the same conference. He’s certainly on my radar — and he’s been impressive so far.
Without further ado, the first Quarterback Trust Meter of the 2025 college football season:
John Mateer, Oklahoma — 9 out of 10: Mateer was must-see TV at Washington State, and now he’s must-see TV at Oklahoma. The nation fell in love with this scrappy quarterback when he accounted for three touchdowns and 344 of Oklahoma’s 408 total yards of offense in the Sooners’ win over then-No. 15 Michigan on Sept. 7. I’m a little concerned about his durability as Oklahoma heads into SEC play, and I know he’s always capable of throwing a bad interception at any point. But I love his fearlessness and I love that the Sooners imported both Mateer and his offensive coordinator, Ben Arbuckle, from Wazzu. It is truly a luxury in college football these days to keep the OC-QB pairing for multiple seasons, and this duo is going on Year 3 together. I trust that.
Tommy Castellanos, Florida State — 8 out of 10: Castellanos called his shot after transferring to Florida State last summer, famously saying of Alabama, “They don’t have Nick Saban to save them. I just don’t see them stopping me.” And then, in the Seminoles’ season-opener against the Crimson Tide, Castellanos and FSU ran all over Alabama in a shocking 31-17 upset. He led the way with 78 of the Seminoles’ 230 rushing yards as FSU gashed Alabama on the ground and put the nation on notice. The Boston College transfer is a dynamic runner who hasn’t been asked to do a ton in the FSU passing attack yet. But he’s poised to lead this program back to ACC title contention (and, with that, CFP contention) this season.
Carson Beck, Miami — 7 out of 10: Beck has been something of a revelation for the Hurricanes so far this season. He’s much closer to the quarterback we saw at Georgia in 2023 — and not the turnover-prone and inconsistent version we saw last season — through three games, which includes a big-time win over Notre Dame in the season-opener and a dominant victory over then-No. No. 18 USF last weekend. He’s thrown for 812 yards already this season, and he’s completing nearly 80 percent of his passes with a 7-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Those around him in Coral Gables have raved about his confidence and composure, and it’s been a huge reason (along with fabulous line play) that Miami has played like one of the very best teams in the country to date.
Dante Moore, Oregon — 7 out of 10: Moore is quietly steering a team that may be the very best in the sport. I say quietly, because I’m not sure how many people have watched the Ducks closely. Moore, who sat last season and learned from the ultra-experienced Dillon Gabriel, has fit into the Oregon offense seamlessly so far, throwing seven touchdowns to one interception and averaging more than a first down per pass attempt. The Ducks haven’t really been challenged much despite facing two Power 4 opponents (Oklahoma State and Northwestern), but Moore has been building chemistry with his many pass-catching weapons. I like what I’m seeing from the redshirt sophomore.
Julian Sayin, Ohio State — 7 out of 10: It has been kind of difficult to evaluate Sayin through three games. He didn’t do much against a vaunted Texas defense in Week 1, though his beautiful touchdown throw to Carnell Tate proved to be the difference in the game. Even Buckeye head coach Ryan Day said afterward that Ohio State probably could have opened up the offense more for the first-time starter. We saw what an opened-up offense looked like vs. Grambling in Week 2, but that was so easy it was almost like routes on air. Sayin and the Buckeyes struggled in the red zone against defending MAC champion Ohio this past weekend, but ultimately Sayin finished with 347 yards and three touchdowns. And, most importantly, he showed off his connection with Jeremiah Smith — which will only grow more important as No. 1 Ohio State inches closer to the meat of its conference schedule.
Gunner Stockton, Georgia — 7 out of 10: Look no further than the fourth-and-six throw against Tennessee. Trailing by eight points with 2:39 to play, Stockton launched the ball to the end zone to London Humphreys, who hauled it in to set up the game-tying two-point conversion (which came in the form of a Stockton throw to Zachariah Branch). That 28-yard touchdown throw was the best of Stockton’s career so far, and it came in the most hostile environment he has ever played in. It was incredibly gutsy and proved quite a bit about the player Georgia has running its show. Stockton has been solid otherwise — he hasn’t thrown an interception through three games — but it was the end of regulation and eventual overtime win over Tennessee that give me much more faith in him and this offense moving forward. It felt positively Stetson Bennett-esque.
Bryce Underwood, Michigan — 6 out of 10: Underwood is the real deal. The No. 1 recruit in the 2025 class flipped his commitment from LSU to Michigan and immediately impressed both his coaches and teammates upon arriving in Ann Arbor. Everyone has been raving about the 6-4, 228-pound freshman ever since, and it’s easy to see why — especially after watching such an anemic passing attack a season ago. Underwood’s arm is impressive, and, as we saw with the nine carries for 114 yards and two rushing touchdowns against Central Michigan, his athleticism creates problems for opposing defenses. I’m very high on this true freshman, but I don’t have him higher on the list simply because: 1) he’s absolutely going to make mistakes this year; and 2) as evidenced by the game against Oklahoma, conservative play calling and/or limitations in the receiving corps could limit this offense considerably when it faces good defenses.
Drew Allar, Penn State — 5 out of 10: Allar is another quarterback who is a bit difficult to evaluate at the moment. In this case, it’s because of the quality of Penn State’s competition. The Nittany Lions have played Nevada, FIU and FCS Villanova through three weeks, and while the final scores all look quite impressive, there were sluggish starts and plenty of stalled-out drives. Penn State ranks 83rd in FBS in touchdown rate in the red zone, and Allar himself ranks 69th among FBS quarterbacks when it comes to passing plays of 20 yards or longer. He’s averaging just 7.1 yards per attempt, down more than a full yard from last season. I hope to see growth from Allar as a passer (and Penn State attempted to beef up its receivers’ room to help with that), but so far he looks mostly the same in some areas and seems to be regressing a bit in others.
Garrett Nussmeier, LSU — 4 out of 10: LSU head coach Brian Kelly said this week that Nussmeier has been dealing with a torso injury since preseason camp that limited his reps and the team’s ability to work on the vertical passing game. That might explain some of what’s gone on with Nussmeier, who has been far less prolific than we all expected so far this season. One year after throwing for the fifth-most passing yards among FBS quarterbacks (4,052), he’s only averaging 229.7 yards per game — which ranks ninth in the SEC alone. He’s thrown just three touchdown passes to two interceptions, and the offense he leads has been quite underwhelming. LSU ranks dead last in the SEC with 20 points per game scored and second-to-last in total offense with 345.7 yards of offense per game. Nussmeier himself ranks 84th nationally in passing plays of 20 yards or more; he has only completed seven such passes. The Tigers’ defense looks to be quite good this year, but the offense is leaving a lot to be desired. This has not been the kind of performance I expected from a Heisman hopeful and potential first-round quarterback.