Copyright thenassauguardian
The Free National Movement’s (FNM) decision to contest the Golden Isles by-election has finally been made, with FNM Leader Michael Pintard announcing yesterday that the party’s candidate, Brian Brown, will again try to win the seat. The confirmation comes after weeks of speculation, hesitation, and silence that raised serious questions about the state of the opposition’s readiness, not to mention its confidence. The by-election, scheduled for November 24, will fill the seat left vacant by the sudden passing of Vaughn Miller just over a month ago. Given the short runway before the next general election, the FNM’s decision to throw its hat in the ring is clearly more a test of morale than anything else. The truth is, even if the FNM wins, its new MP would have little time to make any meaningful impact before Parliament is dissolved. The victor in the upcoming by-election is likely not to see the other side of another budget exercise. While the reward is largely symbolic, the risk is substantial. The FNM’s delay in confirming its participation has been telling. Pintard and his senior team appeared unsure of how to approach this race. In politics, hesitation often signals weakness. The party’s reticence suggested an admission, perhaps, that it was not fully prepared, or fully aligned, for the fight ahead. When Pintard previously called on Prime Minister Philip Davis to call a general election instead of “wasting money on a by-election” it seemed less like a tactical move and more like an attempt to avoid a battle his party wasn’t ready to wage. Now, Pintard faces a different problem. He must convince Bahamians that the FNM has the will, organization, energy, and resources to compete seriously in this race. The FNM is banking on Brown to carry the FNM’s banner. Brown, who has been working in Golden Isles for years, is undoubtedly known to many residents, but that alone does not guarantee momentum. Pintard lauded him as someone who has “been listening to the cries of residents” and “addressing real needs”. But those are just empty political platitudes. Voters will look for something tangible to distinguish Brown from the Progressive Liberal Party’s Darron Pickstock, who at least had the advantage of being in the Senate, even if he didn’t make waves. The PLP has had a head start with its campaign launched, its candidate fully mobilized, and its machinery already in motion. A short campaign calendar does not mean the workload will be lighter. Golden Isles is the largest constituency in the country in terms of registered voters, and even a well-oiled political machine would struggle to cover it effectively in just four weeks. That is coupled with the reality that the FNM has no chance of matching the spectacle and reach of the PLP, which is also backed with the resources of the government. There is also the question of whether the FNM will have the confidence to put Brown forward in a general election if he loses the November poll. There is an upside if the FNM can pull off a win. It would not change the balance of power in Parliament, but it should deliver a much-needed shot of confidence to a party that has spent much of the Davis administration struggling to demonstrate it would be a good alternative. A victory in Golden Isles could reinvigorate the base, quiet internal critics, and wash away the stench of the loss in the West Grand Bahama and Bimini constituency two years ago. But losing again to the PLP would deepen doubts about Pintard’s leadership and the FNM’s capacity to connect with voters. This is a major test for the FNM. By-elections ultimately become national affairs, with candidates forced to carry the weight of the party’s national reputation on their backs. The FNM’s chances may not be as hopeless as they appear. The PLP’s record in Golden Isles under the late Vaughn Miller was hardly stellar, and the government’s promises of rapid development and improved services have largely fallen flat. There is frustration in many pockets of the constituency over infrastructure, cost of living, and the slow pace of change. If the FNM can channel that frustration effectively and present a credible, disciplined message, it could turn this by-election into a referendum on the Davis administration. The FNM has just a few weeks to prove that it still knows how to fight and win.
