Copyright The Street
For over a decade, Bitcoin’s price marched to a predictable drumbeat: the four-year halving cycle. Each halving slashed miner rewards, triggered saupply shock, and ignited explosive bull runs followed by 80% bear markets. It was clockwork—until 2024. Bitcoin shattered all-time highs before the April halving. U.S. Spot ETFs, launched in January, absorbed billions in new supply weekly. The halving’s inflation cut—from 1.7% to 0.85%—barely registered. The cycle, once sacred, appeared broken. To understand why, I turned to Mitchell Askew, Head of Mining Analytics at Blockware Solutions, the firm behind the definitive research report “Bitcoin Matures”—a 40-page analysis that has become required reading for institutional Bitcoin desks. Blockware’s core finding: The halving is now “noise” “The marginal impact of a decrease in Bitcoin’s daily supply issuance is negligible.” — Mitchell Askew, Blockware Solutions Blockware’s report quantifies the collapse of halving relevance: The absolute reduction in 2024? Less than 1 percentage point—dwarfed by ETF inflows averaging $1–2 billion weekly. Blockware concludes: supply shock is no longer a market-moving event. Askew explains, “Bitcoin is increasingly a macro asset correlated with liquidity and business cycles. The 2020 bull market wasn’t halving-driven—it was a liquidity event. Same in 2024. The halving is now just a calendar footnote.” When pressed on what replaces the four-year rhythm, Askew is clear. “There’s no specific cycle length. It’s dynamic. But current indicators—Fed pause, dollar weakness, ETF momentum—point to strong Bitcoin performance in 2026.” Institutional demand kills volatility Blockware’s mining-centric view is complemented by Armando Pantoja, a FinTech strategist tracking institutional flows. His assessment aligns perfectly, saying “Volatility declines as any asset matures. Institutional liquidity and derivatives eliminate retail whiplash.” Scroll to Continue Recommended Articles Key data: Global Bitcoin ETFs now hold >7% of total supply (~1.4 million BTC). ETF investors are “sticky”—long-term allocation funds, not speculative traders. Corporate treasuries (MicroStrategy, Tesla, etc.) and sovereign buyers add permanent sequestration. Pantoja adds, “Halvings are now priced in years ahead. The event no longer surprises. We’re shifting from narrative-driven cycles to long-term equilibrium.” The new clock: Global liquidity, not protocol code Blockware’s report synthesizes the paradigm shift, The math is brutal: If ETFs absorb 100% of new issuance + 20% of float annually, there is no net sell pressure to force multi-year accumulation zones. The structural precondition for an 80% bear market—mass retail liquidation—has been eliminated. Investment Implications (Per Blockware) Track DXY, not halving dates Bitcoin now moves with growth assets: weak dollar = bull, strong dollar = correction. Monitor ETF flows weekly BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK now set the bid. Their AUM growth is the new “hash rate.” Ignore historical cycle analogies 2021 ≠ 2025. The market has inverted: liquidity drives price → price reinforces liquidity. Conclusion: Bitcoin has matured—and the cycle is dead Blockware Solutions’ “Bitcoin Matures” report is not speculative—it’s forensic. Built on mining data, ETF flow analysis, and macro correlation models, it delivers a verdict institutional desks can no longer ignore: "The four-year cycle is functionally dead. Bitcoin is now a high-beta macro asset, governed by Washington and Wall Street, not Satoshi’s code." The booms may be less explosive. The busts? Structurally obsolete. For investors, the new mandate is clear: forecast Fed policy and ETF inflows—not the next halving. Welcome to Bitcoin’s institutional era. The clock has stopped ticking every four years. It now runs on global time.
