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In just the eighth time in program history, this Texas Tech week 11 showdown will involve teams both ranked in the top 10. The college football world will have its eyes on Lubbock, Texas, with College Gameday coming to town. Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire told his team in the post-game speech after beating Kansas State that his team has a huge game next week because “We’re freaking in it.” Now comes an undefeated and fresh BYU team coming to town. Last Word looks at why the key to this game is how well the running game can get going for the Red Raiders. Texas Tech Week 11: Run Wild To Tame The Cougars Defense Has Bonified Heisman Candidate Outside of Ohio State, there is no better 1-2 combination of defensive players than David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Bailey leads the nation in quick pressures (under 2.5 seconds) with 27. Also, noteworthy that his teammate Romello Height has 26. Bailey also leads the country with 11.5 sacks. Meanwhile, Rodriquez is the FBS leader with seven forced fumbles. He is also the second-highest graded defensive player in the country currently by PFF. Rodriquez spearheads the defensive effort in creating turnovers. The Texas Tech defense is tied for second nationally with 20 forced turnovers. This defense is going to need to do a sound job in keeping quarterback Bear Bachmeier contained. While not as fast as Avery Johnson, Bachmeier has the same playmaking abilities. The Cougars will want to try to control the game on the ground. Their rushing attack gets a huge boost this week with the return of LJ Martin. He is their leading rusher this year with 789 yards and averaging six yards per carry. In Big 12 play, the Cougars are averaging 187 yards per game. That alone would be good for the 30th best nationally. Including their non-conference games, BYU sits at 15th in rushing per game with a 216.6 average. In a style that makes fights counterpunch, Texas Tech is number one nationally against the run, only allowing an average of 74.6 yards a game. If only looking at Big 12 numbers, the average jumps up to 91.2 yards per game. That would still be good for 14th nationally. Do Heavy Lifting With Two-Headed Rushing Attack With the return of quarterback Behren Morton (and almost as equally important, so did Terrance Carter Jr.) last week, this offense is now able to operate at its full potential. Unquestionably, Morton is going to need to play well against a stout BYU defense to give the Red Raiders a chance to win. This BYU defense excels against the pass, allowing only 188.9 yards per game, which is 28th nationally. But the Texas Tech week 11 game plan might have leaked a little bit last week against Kansas State. To help keep Morton upright, the offense had a season high in rush attempts with 43. The workload was split between Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams in essentially a 50-50 split. Both backs have proven to be explosive this season. Dickey had his massive 263-yard effort against Kansas earlier this season. Williams has been electric in special teams, and it appears Mack Leftwich wants to get him more touches. Big 12 opponents against BYU have all attempted at least 34 rushing attempts per game. The lowest rushing total BYU has allowed in those games is 156. If Dickey, Williams, and the offensive line can just lean on the Cougars all game, it will be a long day for Kalani Sitake’s team. Texas Tech Week 11 Prediction It isn’t hyperbole to state that this game is the second biggest in program history. The 2008 matchup against the number one-ranked Longhorns will only be surpassed with a home playoff game for Texas Tech. The energy in the building, even with the 11 am local kickoff, will unquestionably be palpable and a factor for the home team. BYU is a resilient team that will not blink in front of a raucous environment. Texas Tech will need to start and finish this game with purpose to secure this victory. The Red Raiders enter the game as one of three teams to rank in the top 10 nationally for scoring offense and defense, total offense, and total defense. Texas Tech is the only team in the country to have eight or more wins by at least 23 points. The Red Raiders are outscoring opponents by 30.3 points a contest, the second-highest margin in the FBS. BYU’s road performances have included stretches in these games lasting almost a full half of football in which they aren’t playing great. If BYU takes almost a half of football to get going against this Texas Tech team, they will not stand a chance. BYU keeps it close early, but Texas Tech does what it has all season and pulls away down the stretch for a convincing victory. Texas Tech 41, BYU 17 How To Watch TexasTech vs. BYU Date/Time: Saturday, November 8/12noon Eastern Location: Jones AT&T Stadium Channel: ABC
