Tesla TSLA is pushing toward record third-quarter deliveries while sharpening its focus on artificial intelligence and autonomy despite rising competition from Chinese EV makers.
The company continues to lead on real-world AI and self-driving technology, even as brand challenges and political headwinds weigh on its outlook.
Tesla stock gained on Monday after Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter maintained an Overweight rating and raised its price forecast from $400 to $500.
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Potter rerated after a research trip to China, where he met with electric vehicle makers including Xiaomi XIACY, Li Auto LI, and Leapmotor. The analyst said Chinese automakers pose Tesla’s most significant competitive threat with vertically integrated operations, low-cost models, fast over-the-air updates, and strong range.
However, when it comes to “real-world AI,” he emphasized that Chinese companies look to Tesla for leadership. One automaker admitted, “without Tesla going from 0 to 1, we can’t go from 1 to 100.”
Potter maintained Tesla as his top pick in autonomous vehicles and robotics, citing its edge in data, talent, chips, and engineering. He projected Tesla will deliver about 495,000 units in the third-quarter, potentially a record. However, he expressed less certainty about 2026, when Tesla aims for 1.9 million units, including 350,000 of its upcoming “Model 2.” He acknowledged uncertainty around that launch but said catalysts like Full Self-Driving (FSD) version 14, expected soon, could drive higher valuation. His new model uses a 180 times 2026 P/E multiple, up from 130 times, matching the highest in Tesla’s history.
Potter argued that Tesla’s high multiple reflects the massive markets it aims to disrupt through AI, much like Amazon.com AMZN in its early years with cloud computing. He added that strong third-quarter demand, boosted by the expiration of a U.S. EV tax credit, is less critical than AI-related catalysts that drive Tesla’s multiple.
Potter acknowledged risks including production delays, supply chain issues, and political headwinds, but he stressed that Tesla’s AI initiatives—especially FSD—are improving rapidly. The analyst reported testing FSD v13.2.9 and found it capable of handling complex situations, with v14 expected to be the most significant leap since the introduction of end-to-end neural nets.
Despite brand challenges tied to Elon Musk’s behavior and intensifying Chinese competition, Potter said Tesla’s potential to monetize autonomy and robotics keeps it unique. He concluded that Tesla’s disruptive path, though volatile, offers long-term investors a rare opportunity, reinforcing his conviction.
Potter projected third-quarter revenue of $26.93 billion and EPS of $0.69.
Price Action: TSLA stock was up 3.60% at $441.52 at the last check on Monday.
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