US President Trump is to sign executive orders at 15:30 ET (20:30 BST) on Thursday; potentially on TikTok
The White House Budget Office instructed federal agencies to prepare workforce reduction plans for potential mass layoffs amid the threat of a government shutdown, according to Politico.
European bourses are lower and have recently made fresh troughs after the European Commission investigates SAP; US equity futures trade tentatively into a packed US data slate and Fed speak.
USD is steady, Antipodeans lead whilst the Swiss Franc lags a touch.
USTs are flat awaiting catalysts; Bunds are firmer amidst a subdued risk tone in Europe, Gilts little moved following a well-received tender.
Crude is on the backfoot while XAU resumes its climb; Copper continues to build on the prior day’s strength.
Looking ahead, US Durable Goods (Aug), GDP Final (Q2), PCE Final (Q2), Jobless Claims, Advance Goods Trade Balance (Aug), Banxico Announcement; Speakers include Fed’s Goolsbee, Williams, Schmid, Bowman, Logan, Barr, Daly, and supply from the US.
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TRADE/TARIFFS
US President Trump to sign executive orders at 15:30 ET (20:30 BST) on Thursday.. Potentially relating to TikTok
A non-principal-level Chinese delegation will visit the US Treasury on Thursday for staff-level technical discussions on trade and the economy. The talks are not the next round of trade negotiations and TikTok will not be addressed. A source added that no negotiations will occur during the visit and US principals will not meet with Chinese technical staff while they are in Washington, according to FBN’s Lawrence.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US-South Korea alliance remains strong and that challenges can be overcome, according to Yonhap. South Korea discussed an FX swap with US Treasury Secretary Bessent on Wednesday, according to the Finance Ministry.
The US is in talks with the G7 and EU on broader rare earth trade measures to prevent price dumping, which could include tariffs, price floors, or other actions, according to Reuters citing a Trump administration official.
US President Trump reportedly plans to visit Japan on 28th or 29th of October, according to TV Asahi. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said no decision has yet been made regarding US President Trump’s visit, according to Reuters.
US opened a 232 probe into robotics, machinery and medical devices, according to Bloomberg
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.4%) opened lower across the board and have traded sideways throughout the morning. Nothing really driving sentiment this morning, but perhaps some continuation of the pressure seen on Wall St in the prior session. Most recently, the European Commission has opened a formal investigation into possible anticompetitive practices by SAP (-2.1%) – news which has put further pressure on the DAX 40 and Euro Stoxx 50, both at fresh session lows.
European sectors opened with a strong negative bias, but are now a little more mixed. Basic Resources is found right at the top of the pile, driven by upside in underlying metals prices – namely copper. As a reminder, copper prices soared in the prior session after one of the world’s largest copper mines, Grasberg, halted operations and declared a force majeure; Rio Tinto (+2.7%), Anglo American (+2.2%). Retail is found in second place, boosted by considerable upside in Swedish-listed H&M (+8.7%); the Co. reported a beat on its Q3 Op. Profit metrics, whilst Sales were more-or-less in line. On trade, it said tariff costs are expected to have an increased impact on gross margin in Q4. Elsewhere, JD Sports (+2.7%) gains after the Co. announced a GBP 100mln share buyback.
Construction & Materials is found right at the foot of the pile, joined closely by Healthcare; losses are broad-based, following reports that the US opened a probe into robotics, machinery and medical devices. Names that have been hit today include; Siemens Healthineers (-4.5%), Philips (-3%), Getinge (-4%) and others.
US equity futures are modestly mixed on either side of the unchanged mark. Catalysts are currently lacking, but a busy US data slate and numerous Fed speakers will soon change that.
US lawmakers are scrutinising large US companies including Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) over their use of H-1B visas amid US layoffs, via WSJ. US Senators requested data from companies by October 10 on H-1B workers’ wages and potential displacement of American employees.
European Commission has opened a formal investigation into possible anticompetitive practices by SAP (SAP GY). SAP does not expect this to have a material impact on financial performance.
Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
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FX
USD has paused for breath after a notable pick-up on Wednesday, which didn’t have a clear or obvious macro driver. Broadly, the USD has continued to pick up since last week’s FOMC policy announcement with comms from the Fed (ex-Miran and Bowman) largely adopting a cautious stance. Today’s docket sees a deluge of Fed speak with voters Goolsbee, Williams, Miran, Schmid, Barr, Bowman and non-voters Logan and Daly all due on deck. On the data slate, weekly claims will be eyed for any further deterioration in the labour market, alongside durable goods and trade metrics. DXY has ventured as high as 97.91.
EUR is steady vs. the USD with incremental macro drivers for the Eurozone on the light side. Geopolitical headlines surrounding Ukraine/Russia and drone activity over certain nation’s remain frequent but so far not having any obvious impact on the FX space with ING making the observation that “if investors were substantially more worried about military conflict at NATO’s eastern border, CEE currencies would be a lot weaker, as would German equity markets”. The pair sits just above Wednesday’s trough at 1.1727 and the WTD low at 1.1726.
USD/JPY was choppy overnight and within a tight range with the pair initially trimming some of Wednesday’s USD-driven gains before reversing back towards session highs in catalyst-light trade. BoJ minutes from two meetings ago discussed the case for future rate hikes if the economic and price outlooks are realised, though timing remained divided. Elsewhere, US President Trump reportedly plans to visit Japan on 28th or 29th of October, according to TV Asahi; Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said no decision has yet been made on the visit. USD/JPY has pulled back a touch from Wednesday’s 148.91 high.
GBP is flat vs. USD and EUR with macro drivers for the UK notably lacking and nothing of note on today’s agenda. Yesterday’s hawkish-leaning remarks from BoE’s Greene have had little sway on markets with the policymaker noting she is less concerned about a rapid decline in the labour market, risks from trade persist but have abated somewhat, and highlighted that the risks to the inflation outlook have shifted to the upside. As is the case with EUR/USD, the dollar is likely to dictate near-term direction for Cable.
Antipodeans are both are a touch firmer vs. the USD and at the top of the G10 leaderboard with little in the way of newsflow out of Australia or New Zealand.
As widely expected, the SNB refrained from delving into NIRP and kept its policy rate at 0%. The decision to do so was largely due to inflation coming in a touch above the SNB’s forecast (albeit only just above the bottom end of its target range) and a broader reticence to take policy below the 0% mark. The policy statement reiterated that the Bank remains ready to intervene in forex markets as needed. The SNB refrained from adding any language around the CHF, despite it being the best performing currency YTD vs. the USD. EUR/CHF saw some fleeting downside before returning to pre-release levels.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1118 vs exp. 7.1293 (Prev. 7.1077)
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FIXED INCOME
A contained start to the session for USTs as we await a packed afternoon and evening of US events. Firstly, weekly jobless data is scheduled and expected to rise to 235k (prev. 231k) while continuing claims, coincide with the BLS window for September, are seen lifting to 1.935mln (prev. 1.92mln). Last week’s better-than-expected claims (231.0k vs. exp. 240k) spurred a hawkish reaction, hitting USTs by around a full point over the course of one hour. There are also a slew of Fed speakers to keep markets busy.
Bunds are firmer but holding in a very narrow 128.09 to 128.34 band, upside came as the European risk tone deteriorated. Specifics for the bloc are a little light so far, no read across from the SNB policy announcement to fixed benchmarks (see FX for more). Additionally, the morning’s EZ M3 and loan data passed without incident. Focus on the above US docket, but alongside that, attention is on political matters in France. As PM Lecornu is reportedly to unveil his first “budgetary guidelines” today, via Politico citing sources; will be posted in La Parisien, online at “the end of the day”.
Currently, OATs trade broadly in-line with EGB peers. The key OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread widened a touch yesterday to just under 83bps and while it remains around that level today, it has not extended further.
A slightly softer start to the session for Gilts, following the bias from peers at that point in time. However, Gilts have not been able to follow the very modest pick up seen in EGBs across the morning. Potentially a function of the slight relative outperformance seen in the first half of the week or as we look at the day’s supply docket. UK auctions this week have seen robust b/c, however the actual demand at the taps has been weak which, alongside the very chunk tail seen on Tuesday’s outing, has increased focus on supply. Today’s first tender passed without incident, with a 2.9x cover strong enough to prevent a sell off but not sufficient to break the modest bearish trend that has been in play this morning.
Japan sold JPY 400bln in 40-year JGBs; b/c 2.6x (prev. 2.1x); highest accepted yield 3.300% (prev. 3.375%).
UK sells GBP 1.25bln 4.50% 2034 Gilt via tender: b/c 2.90x, average yield 4.584%.
Oracle (ORCL) launched a USD 18bln investment-grade bond sale, according to Bloomberg.
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COMMODITIES
Crude was initially quiet and rangebound trade in a c. USD 0.50/bbl range after the benchmarks closed out Wednesday’s sessions with modest gains in proximity to highs of USD 65.05/bbl and USD 69.33/bbl for WTI and Brent respectively. Since, benchmarks have pulled back and are lower by c. USD 0.60/bbl at the low-end of respective USD 64.29-93/bbl and USD 68.91-69.33/bbl parameters. Market-moving energy newsflow has been light this morning; instead, the pressure seems to be a function of the increasingly downbeat equity risk tone.
Spot gold is rangebound trade early in the session with a lift in prices coinciding with the SNB rate decision. A rebound that took spot gold from modest gains around the USD 3746/oz mark to a USD 3761.6/oz peak, but shy of USD 3779/oz and USD 3791/oz highs from the last two sessions. At the same time, silver saw a more pronounced rally lifting from USD 44.02/oz to a USD 44.87/oz peak.
Copper is firmer, extending the aggressive bid seen in yesterday’s session following news from miner Freeport McMoran who declared force majeure in relation to contracts fulfilled by its Indonesian Grasberg mine. A facility that accounts for c. 3% of global supply.
Goldman Sachs expects a 250–260kt loss of copper production from Grasberg in 2025, compared with its previous forecast of 700kt. After adjusting for disruption allowances, it incorporated a 160kt downgrade to its H2 2025 global mine supply forecast and a 200kt downgrade to its 2026 forecast. The bank lowered its 2025/2026 copper mine production growth forecast to +0.2%/+1.9% y/y from +0.8%/+2.2% previously. Goldman said the latest disruption means risks to its December 2025 LME copper price forecast of USD 9,700/t are skewed to the upside, with prices expected to settle in a USD 10,200–10,500/t range, and emphasised its long-term bullish copper price forecast of USD 10,750/t by 2027, according to Reuters.
Magnitude 5.6 earthquake strikes Zulia, Venezuela region, according to EMSC.
China is studying measures to strengthen regulation on copper smelting production capacity.
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NOTABLE DATA RECAP
German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Oct) -22.3 vs. Exp. -23.3 (Prev. -23.6, Rev. -23.5)
French Consumer Confidence (Sep) 87.0 vs. Exp. 87.0 (Prev. 87.0)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
Swiss SNB Policy Rate (Q3) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.0%); willing to intervene in FX if needed, annual inflation forecasts maintained. Click for details
SNB Chair Schlegel says uncertainty over inflation and economic developments remain elevated Inflation pressure virtually the same as prior quarter. Will tweak monetary policy as needed. Remains willing to be active in FX market as needed.
SNB Chairman Schlegel says “the bar to go into negative rates is higher than for a normal cut; but if necessary, will be ready to use all tools”; large part of economy has not been affected by tariffs. Trade: Switzerland has very high tariffs, companies may find it challenging. Impact of tariffs as a whole is limited. Policy: Monetary policy is currently expansive. Inflation; Can have negative prints in the short term, stresses importance of medium-term outlook. FX: Are not speaking about re-introducing minimum exchange rate; the situation is different to 2011. Never intervenes in currency market to give companies an unfair advantage.
SNB Vice Chairman Martin says global economic developments dampened by US tariffs and ongoing high uncertainty “Continuing high uncertainty is having a negative impact on companies’ investment activity”. “Our scenario for the global economy remains subject to high uncertainty”. “However, it also cannot be ruled out that the global economy will prove more resilient than expected”. “US tariffs are likely to curb global trade and reduce the purchasing power of US households.”
SNB’s Tschudin says economic outlook for Switzerland has deteriorated due to significantly higher US tariffs Unemployment is likely to continue rising. The economic outlook for Switzerland remains uncertain. The main risks are US trade policy and global economic developments.
French PM Lecornu is reportedly to unveil his first “budgetary guidelines” today, via Politico citing sources; will be posted in La Parisien, online at “the end of the day”.
ECB’s Kazimir says the inflation goal has been met and will only act if required.
German economic institutes revise their 2025 growth forecast to 0.2% (prev. 0.1%), 2026 1.3% (prev. 1.3%).
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
The White House Budget Office instructed federal agencies to prepare workforce reduction plans for potential mass layoffs amid the threat of a government shutdown, according to Politico.
Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) said further policy adjustments will likely be needed as the Fed works to restore price stability and support the labour market. She said she fully supported last week’s 25bps rate cut, noted that risks to the economy had shifted and it was time to act, and emphasised that the Fed’s rate-path projections are not promises and policy will need to be assessed at each decision point, according to Reuters. Daly said it is hard to say if further rate cuts will come now, later this year, or at another time. She said the labour market is not weak but no longer as speedy as it was, describing it as sustainable and stressing she does not want to see further softening. She likened the recent rate cut to taking out insurance on the labour market, noting that once it tips into weakness, it is hard to revive. Daly added that the Fed still has work to do on inflation, but does not want the labour market to weaken, emphasised this is not stagflation, and said inflation excluding tariffs is roughly 2.4% to 2.5%. She added the economy still needs monetary bridling, though not as much, and that evidence is consistent with tariffs having a one-time impact on inflation.
NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Huang sold 225,000 common shares across multiple transactions at prices ranging between USD 174.82 and USD 184.38 per share (vs USD 176.97 close), with the sales executed under a pre-arranged trading plan, according to Reuters citing an SEC filing.
GEOPOLITICS
Unidentified drones were observed over four airports across Denmark, causing one of them to close for several hours, according to Danish police.
Denmark’s police reported sightings of multiple drones over Aalborg airport and said it is unclear if they are linked to those seen in Copenhagen on Monday, according to Reuters. The Local Chief Police Inspector in Aalborg said that if it is safe to do so, local police will ‘take the drones out’, according to Faytuks News.
Denmark’s Chief of National Police said a state of national emergency may be raised, according to TV 2 Denmark, cited by Faytuks. Danish police later confirmed that operations against unidentified drones over Aalborg Airport have concluded, saying drones previously spotted in North Jutland are no longer present in the airport’s airspace, according to Reuters.
Danish National Police Chief adds that there were events at military facilities.
Danish Defence Minister says there is no evidence to say there is a link to Russia, decided not to shoot the drones.
EU leaders have concluded that US President Trump is no longer a reliable ally, according to FT citing officials; Officials fear that Trump’s new rhetoric on Ukraine aims to shift the blame away from Washington if Kyiv falters in the war.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is a little lower and trades just shy of USD 118k whilst Ethereum underperforms and slips to the USD 4k mark.
A Senate panel will hold a hearing on the taxation of digital assets on October 1st, according to Bloomberg.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mixed for most of the session following a softer Wall Street handover, with the breadth of the market narrow and price action uneventful amid a lack of fresh catalysts heading into quarter-end. The region then tilted into a modestly positive picture despite a lack of drivers.
ASX 200 was initially in the red, pressured by gold miners as the yellow metal pulled back from near USD 3,800/oz levels, while notable gains in Energy helped offset some of the downside.
Nikkei 225 moved between modest gains and losses and found some support at the 45,500 mark. BoJ minutes from two meetings ago suggested one member said rates should be raised when possible, as policy is still below neutral and the BoJ should not be too cautious, whilst one member added the BoJ could exit its wait-and-see mode as soon as this year if the US economy proves resilient.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy, with Hong Kong and Mainland China initially trimming their modest opening gains before recouping. Participants overlooked reports that a non-principal-level Chinese delegation will visit the US Treasury on Thursday for staff-level technical discussions on trade and the economy. Sources suggested the TikTok issue will not be discussed and emphasised these talks are not the next round of trade negotiations but rather a technical meeting.
KOSPI traded with mild losses amid a lack of progress in US-South Korea trade talks.
Nifty 50 kicked off the session flat but remained above the 25,000 mark following its recent H-1B-related losses.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China President Xi said the country aims to bring total installed capacity of wind and solar power to over six times the 2020 level, and that NEVs will become the mainstream of new car sales, according to Reuters.
BoJ July meeting minutes showed many members said the US-Japan trade deal reduced uncertainty on the outlook, but the tariff impact on the economy and prices must be scrutinised for the time being. One member said the BoJ must look at more data before making policy decisions, given uncertainty in US monetary policy and FX, while another said rates should be raised, when possible, as policy is still below neutral and the BoJ should not be too cautious. One member added the BoJ could exit its wait-and-see mode as soon as this year if the US economy proves resilient, and another stressed that hiking at the appropriate time would be important from a risk management perspective, via the BoJ.
PBoC Deputy Governor said the global impact and attractiveness of the Chinese bond market have greatly increased in recent years. He noted the total balance of the market reached CNY 192tln as of August 2025, making it the world’s second-largest, and said global bond investors remain confident, with foreign investors holding 2% of Chinese yuan bonds, according to Reuters.
Chinese Commerce Ministry says US should take steps to remove “unreasonable” tariffs. Says removing unreasonable tariff will create conditions to expand two-way trade.
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