Cecilia Esquivel first turned to the Democrats in 2020. She stayed blue four years later.
Speaking in soft tones to avoid waking the day care children napping in her home on 25th Street in Moline, Esquivel laid out her voting history, explained why she turned away from the Republican Party after voting for Donald Trump in 2016.
“The second time, when I voted for Biden, it was really to just let me vote for somebody other than Trump,” she said.
Esquivel switched from Trump to Democratic candidates because of morals, she said.
Like many Americans who voted Democratic in the 2024 election, personal morals and concern for democracy pushed Esquivel blue.
“This time around, it was morals instead of political beliefs for me,” Esquivel said.
Nestled between 23rd and 27th streets in Moline, other residents in the 15th Precinct held sentiments similar to Esquivel’s when they cast their ballots in the 2024 election. With a 17-point shift in margin favoring Democrats, the precinct had the heaviest blue shift in Rock Island County from 2020 to 2024.
Esquivel grew up just down the street from where she lives now, the lone Hispanic family on the block. She said she’s noticed an increase of diversity in her neighborhood since she was a kid.
Other residents of the area echoed Esquivel and said the increase in diversity is likely what caused the increased votes for Democrats.
However, Esquivel said she has been treated differently under the Trump administration. She has experienced more racial profiling and an uptick in negative interactions since the start of Trump’s second term in January. Now, she said, Trump’s return to the office has made people feel more comfortable saying harmful things — both to her face and online.
“(People are) a lot more bold with the things they’re saying and doing now,” she said. “They feel like they have an outlet, kind of like they have permission to say stuff.”
Other Moline Democrats expressed a similar concern, and many were unwilling to speak about their political views on the record due to safety concerns.
Moline Democrats express unease about speaking publicly
To reach Democrats in the precinct, Dick Potter, the Democratic Precinct 15 committeeman, walked the neighborhood with reporters from The Quad-City Times/Dispatch-Argus on a temperate mid-morning in July.
He carried a rolled up list of voters tucked into his back pocket and introduced himself with a handshake and a smile. Despite Potter’s friendly demeanor, most voters opted not to disclose their names, citing safety concerns and worries about the current political climate.
A married couple who both voted blue said they feel uneasy because of Trump. The pair said they are appalled by the way immigrants are being treated.
Potter, who has served as the precinct’s committeeman for 20 years, said the current political atmosphere combined with Trump’s rhetoric makes Democrats uneasy and keeps them silent.
“There’s a license for cruelty right now,” Potter said. “It’s un-American.”
‘Anybody but him,’ Moline Democrats oppose Trump
Although she grew up in a Republican household, Claire Barton is a lifelong Democrat. She said the Democratic Party tends to fall in line with her personal belief system.
The 35-year-old Moline resident voted for Harris because she liked the politician’s stances, but also because she did not want to vote for Trump.
“Anybody else,” she said, shaking her head.
Barton and her wife believe in women’s rights and LGBTQ+ rights, she said, and the Republican Party has strayed from supporting either demographic.
So far, Trump’s second term has been very negative for the United States, Barton said, especially for people of color, women and members of the LGBTQ+ community. Barton has an 18-year-old daughter with special needs, and potential cuts to Medicaid could upend their lives, she said.
“If we didn’t have Medicaid, she wouldn’t survive,” Barton said.
Scott County turns majority conservative
While Moline’s voting precinct shifted bluer than any other in the Quad-Cities in the last two election cycles, a precinct in Davenport went the other direction.
With every precinct shifting in margins in favor of Republicans, Scott County turned red for the first time in 40 years. Davenport Precinct 44 had the largest shift in margin for Republicans, although the precinct stayed blue.
The number of Republican votes in Precinct 44 more than doubled between 2012 and 2024.
Davenport neighbors Brian McCumsey and Mike Bulva, who live in the precinct, both voted for Trump.
Leaning against his push lawnmower perched at the edge of his yard, McCumsey said he focused on economic issues when deciding which presidential candidate to vote for.
Grappling with inflation and increased costs, a plurality of voters cast their ballot with the economy on their minds, like McCumsey. Exit polling by AP VoteCast reported 39% of voters surveyed said the economy was their top issue.
Inflation flared to a four-decade high under the Biden administration. Biden’s annual inflation rates ticked to 5.4%, and were 1.9% under Trump’s first administration, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index. The consumer price index, a common measure of inflation, grew by more than 20% over the first 45 months of Biden’s term.
“I was going by (Trump’s) first administration, when he was first in office, and I think he accomplished a lot of what he said was going to accomplish — maybe not so much this time around,” McCumsey said.
Polls show economy top issue for lower- and middle-income voters
Trump’s economic plans appealed to lower- and middle-income voters and voters without college degrees — all groups that placed their family budget as a top issue — according to an AP VoteCast Exit Poll.
The survey found these voters were twice as likely to vote for Trump compared to Harris. About 60% of voters who said the economy and jobs were the most important issue facing Americans voted for Trump.
While voter demographic information is not available locally, Census numbers don’t seem to align with that polling for voters in the Quad-Cities. Rock Island County, which has a plurality of Democrats, has fewer college educated residents and a lower median household income than Scott County, which had a majority of Republicans in 2024. About 25% of Rock Island County residents had a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to Scott County’s 36%.
Scott County has a higher median household income at $77,719, compared to Rock Island’s $63,087.
Immigration top of mind for Davenport voters
While the economy was a top issue for McCumsey, immigration was Bolva’s main concern. Immigration was ranked behind the economy as the top issue for voters in the 2024 presidential election, according to a Gallup poll.
Sitting on his porch, Bulva dove into his political history and beliefs. He cast his ballot for Trump three times, and said he is a fan of Trump’s bluntness.
“(Trump) tells it like it is,” the U.S. Navy veteran said. “He doesn’t sugarcoat anything, I don’t sugarcoat anything.”
The issue that stuck out to Bulva this past election cycle was the U.S.-Mexico border. Illegal border crossings hit record highs during the Biden administration, averaging 2 million per year from 2021 to 2023.
Similar to Bulva, most Iowans said it is necessary to address the southern border, according to a September Des Moines Register/Medicom poll, which showed 60% of Iowans considered securing the border “critical.”
Bulva said both sets of his grandparents came to the United States through Ellis Island.
“I don’t have a problem with somebody coming over here, but do it the right way,” he said.
Immigration was also a key issue for Rebecca Pracht, but she takes an opposing stance to her neighbor.
“I’m very, very understanding that the county’s built on being an immigrant nation,” she said.
Pointing to the deportation of West Liberty resident Pasqual Pedro this summer, the lifelong Democrat said the deportations enforced by the Trump administration are unconscionable.
“We hope that wiser heads prevail in the end, a lot of things are cyclical,” she said. “Already they’re realizing ‘oh we didn’t really want Pasqual taken out, this isn’t the immigration issue that we saw.’ It’s coming back on (Trump) now.”
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