Copyright worldbank
The way forward: building opportunity at home Tajikistan now stands at a crossroads. The question is not whether the country can keep reducing poverty, but whether it can replace migration-led progress with homegrown, inclusive prosperity. The report identifies four interconnected policy priorities. 1. Kick-start structural transformation through agricultural renewal Agriculture remains the backbone of rural livelihoods, yet its potential is underused. Relaxing crop-mandate policies, improving access to irrigation and climate-smart technologies, and revitalizing extension and market-information services, especially in Khatlon, can raise productivity and incomes. Boosting on-farm value addition and linking farmers to agro-processing could lay the foundation for domestic structural transformation. 2. Create jobs in labor-intensive private sectors Industrial policy should shift from capital-intensive, state-led projects toward private-sector-driven, employment-rich industries such as agro-processing, construction, logistics, and light manufacturing. Encouraging competition and easier market entry, for example, in courier and service sectors, would harness Tajikistan’s young labor force and reduce dependence on remittances. 3. Equalize access to opportunities across regions and groups Tajikistan’s growth could have reduced poverty by an additional 4 percentage points if it had been more inclusive. Bridging spatial and gender divides is therefore essential. Investments in rural education, vocational training, transport, and digital connectivity would connect isolated communities to markets and jobs. Expanding financial inclusion — with less than 15 percent of households holding bank accounts — would empower small entrepreneurs, especially women and youth. 4. Strengthen protection for the vulnerable Although around 45 percent of the poor receive public transfers, most benefits come from pensions. Targeted Social Assistance (TSA) – the country’s main social assistance program supporting low-income families – reaches only about 15 percent of households. Expanding the TSA’s coverage and improving its targeting accuracy would help more low-income families cope with shocks and avoid falling back into poverty. A transformation at home Tajikistan’s poverty reduction story proves that growth, even when externally driven, can lift millions. The challenge now is to build on that success to expand domestic opportunities. Building a more diversified, inclusive, and climate-resilient economy will require reforms that empower the private sector, modernize agriculture, and close the education and gender gaps. As the Tajikistan Poverty and Equity Assessment concludes, “prosperity must now be homegrown.” Findings from Enhancing the Development Impacts of Migration in Central Asia reinforces this message: while migration has lifted incomes, its development gains are often short-lived unless accompanied by stronger job creation at home. United Nations projections show that more than 600,000 young people in Tajikistan aged 15-24 will enter the labor force in the next decade. Creating productive jobs at home will be essential to turning Tajikistan’s demographic potential into a driver of inclusive and resilient growth.
