Copyright Essentially Sports
If bad luck were a champion, Carson Hocevar would have won it with a record margin. The Spire Motorsports’ star’s 2025 campaign was a study of frustrating inconsistency, delivering bursts of speed overshadowed by a deluge of misfortune. Though Hocevar ultimately finished the year 23rd in the driver standings with an average finish of 21.08, these metrics fail to capture the high-wire act the team often performed. He was able to record 2 Top-5s and 9 Top-10s, demonstrating the raw potential of both driver and team. However, despite winning the 2024 Rookie of the Year award, he has struggled to close races consistently in 2025. A closer look at the analytics starkly illustrates Hocevar’s struggle to translate fast race cars into final results, placing him among the drivers who suffered the most regressions year-over-year. While some drivers saw marked improvement in their average finish from 2024-25, such as Chase Briscoe (+6.1) or Ryan Preece (+5.2), Hocevar’s average finish regressed by -3.3 from his initial Cup performance, placing him 2nd on the list of most regressed drivers, just behind Noah Gragson (-5.6) and ahead of Bubba Wallace (-3.2). This is a crucial indicator of a team that had the raw speed ot contend but suffered from a persistent inability to execute a clean, full race. But the sheer number of incidents that were completely beyond his control was a fact noted by veteran analyst Jeff Gluck for the regression. He stated, “Hocevar on this list is so wild because he ran wayyyy higher than this during most races and then various things went wrong at the end.” However, the surprising aspect of this was Hocevar’s response confirming this sentiment by listing a staggering 13 races where his team was undone by “failures, freak issues, or things out of out control,” from the season opener at Daytona to the finale at Phoenix. But despite the constant setbacks that tanked his final finishes, Hocevar noted the team’s true pace was reflected in their points earned during the segments, finishing 11th in stage points for the season. ADVERTISEMENT The list that Hocevar lamented reads like a disaster reel of NASCAR misfortune. The Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte, for instance, delivered one of the most heartbreaking mechanical failures of the year when his engine blew up while he was running 2nd on a restart, resulting in a 34th-place finish. Similarly, races at tracks like Michigan, where a flat left-rear tire with 18 laps to go ended his chances of winning, and Sonoma, where contact with Josh Berry with 3 laps remaining sent Hocevar spinning and relegated him to a 32nd-place finish. Even superspeedways like Daytona 1 and Daytona 2 were fraught with incidents. This brutal season has elicited a massive outpouring of sympathy and encouragement from fans. Rather than facing the typical criticism reserved for drivers with poor stats, fans have rallied behind Hocevar’s raw honesty and resilience, recognizing that his poor average finish was often the result of circumstances outside of his control. ADVERTISEMENT NASCAR community unites around Carson Hocevar One fan added to Hocevar’s list, reminiscing, “You forgot Atlanta 1 caution timing.” During the Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway in February, Hocevar masterfully worked his way into the lead pack in overtime and was executing a brilliant three-wide pass for victory on the final lap, splitting Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson into Turn 3. However, a multi-car crash erupted behind the leaders, and NASCAR threw the caution flag just before the lead pack crossed the finish line. ADVERTISEMENT Read Top Stories First From EssentiallySports Click here and check box next to EssentiallySports This decision immediately froze the field, handing the win to leader Bell and relegating Hocevar to a career-best 2nd-place finish. Another included a different instance, stating, “i also forgot about bristol 2 caution coming out after we pit from the lead with 15 to go in position to win. but that’s literally the least bad luck things we had this year. so didn’t make the list.” At the 2025 Bass Pro Shops Night Race, Hocevar and the Spire Motorsports team had run brilliantly, keeping pace with championship contenders and moving into the lead near the close of the final stage. However, the team’s ultimate strategy was based on the race staying green after their final pit stop, where they took two tires wth the intent of using the short-run advantage to hold off cars with older tires. But a caution flag was thrown with just 13 laps remaining, dropping him to a 7th-place finish. While others further stated, “Oh man where were you leading with 20 to go and lost a tire? That was awful. Wasn’t it Michigan, and then Denny won :D” During the FireKeepers Casino 400 at his home track, Michigan International Speedway, Hocevar drove to the front and led a career-high 32 laps. With a victory in sight, the heartbreak occurred with just 18 laps remaining in the 200-lap race when a flat tire forced him to pit road, destroying his chance at a first Cup Series win and relegating him to a 29th-place finish. However, one fan opined, “failure of a year? yes. have speed tho? yes. speed is sustainable when it comes together. we do the hard things right and the easy things wrong. when we hit, we’ll be okay. goal is to hit it in ‘26.” ADVERTISEMENT Despite his low average finish, Hocevar captured a pole position at Texas Motor Speedway, indicating the Chevrolet was consistently fast enough to run in the top 10 during the intermediate stages of races. While another supported the statement, firmly stating, “Hocevar was the real champion. At least we don’t keep hearing about him crying cause he lost. Is Denny still sad? Maybe write another story about how sad Denny is. Hocevar never cry’s. Look it up.”
