You would have been hard-pressed to find any Eagles backer feeling confident about their bet last week when Philadelphia trailed the Rams by 19 points less than a minute into the third quarter. But that’s when the Eagles offense showed exactly how dominant it can be when needed, with the Eagles scoring 20 straight points to take a 27-26 lead in the fourth quarter. Then, the true miracle occurred when Philadelphia blocked a field goal and scored a touchdown as time expired, sending all Eagles sports bettors into a euphoric state as the Eagles somehow covered their 3.5-point spread last week.
The Eagles are 3-point favorites against the Buccaneers on Sunday in the latest Week 4 NFL odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, and after last week’s roller coaster of a contest in determining the ATS winner, the SportsLine model projects the best value from this contest coming from backing Over 43.5 total points scored. The model projects multiple high-scoring NFC East contests for Week 4 NFL bets, also backing Over 47.5 points on Sunday Night Football when the Dallas Cowboys host the Green Bay Packers. Meanwhile, it sees value in taking Under 43.5 points in the Giants vs. Chargers as Jaxson Dart makes his first NFL start for Week 4 NFL picks. Those NFL picks are part of an NFC East parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook that pays out over 6-1.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model is on a sizzling 39-19 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Three Sunday NFC East betting picks for NFL Week 4 (odds subject to change):
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Over 43.5 points (-115)
Giants vs. Chiefs Under 43.5 points (-105)
Cowboys vs. Packers Over 47.5 points (-105)
Combining the model’s three picks into an NFC East parlay at DraftKings would result in a payout of +612 (risk $100 to win $612).
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Over 43.5 points (-110, DraftKings)
The Buccaneers and Eagles are tied for fourth in scoring offense this season at 29 points per game, with both teams scoring at least 20 points in all three contests. They’ve both been among the most run-heavy teams during their 3-0 starts as well, and with explosive running backs at Saquon Barkley and Bucky Irving pacing each offense, it’s no surprise why. Barkley has two touchdowns this season after rushing for 2,005 yards with 15 total touchdowns last season. Both Baker Mayfield and Jalen Hurts can make plays when their team needs them to. Tampa Bay defeated the Eagles, 33-16, to go Over this total last season, and given the strong starts for both offenses this year, the model projects the Over to hit in 59% of simulations.
Giants vs. Chargers: Under 43.5 points (-105, DraftKings)
Dart, the No. 25 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, makes his first NFL start for the Giants on Sunday, and New York certainly didn’t wait for a soft opponent to open with. The Chargers have the No. 4 scoring defense in the NFL, allowing 16.7 points per game, while allowing the second-fewest yards per pass (5.5). Dart was impressive during the preseason, but this is a significantly tougher challenge than anything he’s faced yet. The Chargers have gone Under in two of their first three games of the season during their 3-0 start, and they haven’t allowed more than 21 points in a game this season, despite going against stronger offenses like Kansas City and Denver this year. The model projects the Under to hit in 61% of simulations.
Cowboys vs. Packers Over 47.5 points (-110, DraftKings)
Both the Packers and Cowboys had Week 3 performances they’d like to forget about heading into their Sunday Night Football matchup, and the model projects both offenses to perform more similarly to how they did over the first two weeks than last week. Dallas lost to the Bears, 31-14, last week, but the Cowboys scored 40 points the week before in a 40-37 win over the Giants. Dallas’ defense has struggled to begin the season since trading away Micah Parsons as another reason to back the Over. But more than Dallas’ defensive struggles, Green Bay’s offensive success gives the model confidence the Packers will bounce back. The Packers lost 13-10 to the Browns last week, but Cleveland also held the Bengals to 17 points in Week 1 as one of the better defenses in the NFL. Jordan Love has five touchdowns over three games, with Josh Jacobs adding two rushing scores, and the model expects the Packers to move the ball against Dallas, which ranks 27th in scoring defense at 30.7 ppg. The Over hits in 58% of simulations.