Welcome to Statue Season! Each week leading up to the 98th Academy Awards ceremony, we’ll be checking in on the closest races, the winningest narratives, and the plain old movie magic that will decide who’s taking home the gold on March 15, 2026. We’re kicking things off with an early Best Picture contender in One Battle After Another—what movies will it be competing against in the coming months?
Cinephiles, it’s time to fire up your AMC A-List subscriptions and bookmark the Gold Derby Oscar odds page, because awards season is officially upon us. And what do you know: Five months out from the Academy Awards, we already have a front-runner. After releasing over the weekend to great fanfare, One Battle After Another is the odds-on favorite to win Best Picture at March’s Academy Awards. There’s one small speed bump on OBAA’s path to the podium: Most of the movies it will be going up against haven’t come out yet, and this year’s field is looking like it will offer some formidable opponents to threaten Paul Thomas Anderson’s film’s early lead. Chloé Zhao’s much-hyped Hamnet is on the horizon, the Safdie brothers are putting out separate films, and James Cameron is taking us to Pandora yet again. Let’s take a way-too-early look at what the Best Picture field could look like when nominations are announced in January and weigh who has the best chance of snagging that sought-after statuette. (Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted.)
One Battle After Another
Current odds: -175
What is it? A nearly three-hour action-thriller about an ex-revolutionary trying to rescue his daughter, who was kidnapped by a white supremacist military officer. Featuring an ensemble cast that includes Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, Regina Hall, Benicio del Toro, Teyana Taylor, and newcomer Chase Infiniti. Directed by Paul Thomas Anderson and distributed by Warner Bros.
The case for: If you’re a millennial with an active Letterboxd presence, chances are you saw One Battle over the weekend. (Maybe you even already have several boxes ticked on your formats stamp card.) You can also probably confirm that it was pretty fucking great! Anderson’s 10th feature has gotten rapturous praise from just about every outlet that’s reviewed it—plus it achieved an A Cinemascore (the first PTA movie to score higher than a C) and is averaging a 4.5 rating on Letterboxd. This might sound like some trite Oscars analysis, but this movie is really good! And simply being really good might win it Best Picture!
The team behind One Battle knows they have a real contender on their hands, too. For one, the usually private DiCaprio is out there actually doing press for this thing. And I’m not talking about a respectable long-form interview with Marc Maron like he did while promoting Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood. This man is sitting down for a Tonight Show interview for the first time since 2006, appearing in TikToks set to Nicki Minaj songs, and shooting the shit with the Kelce brothers about Shaq and Marlon Brando. (Not to mention popping for our own Big Picture podcast.) We’re reaching unprecedented levels of content. DiCaprio’s last film, Killers of the Flower Moon, earned 10 nominations at the 96th Academy Awards, but he hardly participated in any press, and the movie walked away with a goose egg in the wins column. He’s clearly playing the game this time around, and PTA’s right there with him—directing TikTok camerawork and everything. Is One Battle just a Hot Ones appearance away from taking home the top prize come March?
As far as the content of the film itself, it’s an epic and politically charged film that’s somewhat comparable to recent Best Picture winners Oppenheimer and Parasite (though it doesn’t fit cleanly into either mold). It deals with the modern world in the effective and urgent way that the Academy has been keen on rewarding lately. And it’s all tied together with a moving father-daughter relationship that keeps the film grounded in personal stakes. Plus, it’s helmed by some S-tier movie stars and is directed by a modern master who hasn’t gotten his Oscar coronation yet. There are multiple narratives at play that could chart a path to a One Battle Best Picture victory.
The case against: One Battle debuted to $22 million at the domestic box office—which is the highest debut in PTA’s career. But it wasn’t the ideal return for a film with a $130-plus million budget (also the highest of PTA’s career). While One Battle was the Super Bowl for coastal cinephiles whose local IMAX screens double as their place of worship, its early box office numbers signify that it may not be as widely appealing as Warner Bros. had hoped. And while profitability isn’t always a determining factor in the Best Picture winner, the last three victors (Anora, Oppenheimer, and Everything Everywhere All at Once) all outearned their budgets. Still, One Battle is a largely original drama aimed at adult audiences that isn’t tied to a significant IP (unless you consider the works of Thomas Pynchon to be your MCU). It was bound to rely on word of mouth to turn a profit, so its returns in the coming weeks could be crucial to keeping its hype train chugging along.
Hamnet
Current odds: +300
What is it? A historical drama about the relationship between William Shakespeare and his wife in the wake of the death of their 11-year-old son, Hamnet. Starring Paul Mescal and Jessie Buckley, directed by Chloé Zhao, and distributed by Focus Features.
The case for: I mean, did you read that description? It’s got family tragedy, historical figures, and period-specific costumes? It doesn’t get more Oscar-y than that.
Hamnet won’t be released theatrically in the U.S. until late November, but it got excellent reviews out of Telluride and TIFF, winning the People’s Choice Award at the latter. (Zhao’s Nomadland won that award in 2020 and went on to win Best Picture.) Plus, it’s got buzzy actors who could be due for statuettes of their own (Mescal and Buckley were previously nominated for Aftersun and The Lost Daughter, respectively), and it’s made by a filmmaker who already has some cred with the Academy. Hamnet is currently Variety’s pick to win Best Picture.
The case against: While Zhao’s Oscar wins came during the odd 2021 ceremony in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, being honored with a second Best Picture Oscar this soon after her first would be extremely rare. Only 12 filmmakers have directed multiple Best Picture winners, period—with Frank Capra, Francis Ford Coppola, David Lean, Frank Lloyd, Robert Wise, and William Wyle being the only ones to do it within six years. Zhao would be the first to accomplish it this quickly since Coppola directed two Best Picture winners in The Godfather and The Godfather Part II only two years apart (1972 and 1974). Is the Academy ready to canonize Zhao among the greatest of the greats? Or is it too soon to place her alongside such storied company?
Sinners
Current odds: +600
What is it? A historical (and horned-up) take on vampire horror and the roots of Black American music. Starring Michael B. Jordan (times two), Hailee Steinfeld, and Delroy Lindo; directed by Ryan Coogler; and distributed by Warner Bros.
The case for: You can fact-check me on this, but when campaigning a movie for Oscars, it often helps if people have actually seen said movie. And everyone in the goddamn world saw Sinners. Grossing $279 million at the domestic box office, it’s one of the most commercially successful films of 2025 and one of the most successful original films in years. Going against a field of movies that will mostly reach much smaller audiences, Sinners has a bankability—along with glowing reviews and an impressive dual performance by Michael B. Jordan—that could be enough to invite the vampire flick into the winner’s circle.
The case against: To put it simply: Money isn’t everything! In 1976, Steven Spielberg famously railed against “commercial backlash” when the Academy snubbed Jaws in several categories, and the sentiment could still apply today. Box office behemoths like Dune (and its sequel), Barbie, and Avatar: The Way of Water brought home very few wins in their respective categories—and none of them snagged Best Picture. While turning a profit certainly helps an Oscar hopeful’s case, being a full-blown commercial powerhouse doesn’t always pay off. Sinners’ greatest asset as a certified cultural phenomenon could actually end up being a hindrance.
Sentimental Value
Current odds: +800
What is it? A Norwegian comedy-drama about two estranged sisters confronting their distant father in the wake of their mother’s death. Starring Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgard, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Cory Michael Smith, and Elle Fanning; directed by Joachim Trier; and distributed by Neon.
The case for: You heard Charli XCX: It’s Joachim Trier Summer! (I guess it’s more like Joachim Trier Q1 2026, but that doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue.) Trier last directed the acclaimed dramedy The Worst Person in the World, which featured a star-making turn by Reinsve and nabbed two Oscar nominations. His latest film got rave reviews out of Cannes, where it took home the Grand Prix and nearly landed the festival’s most prestigious award, the Palme d’Or (more on that later). It’s got a tragicomic Oscar-y premise and talented actors on the verge of wider recognition: The always great (and menacing) Skarsgard has never won an Oscar, Reinsve turned in a fantastic performance in last year’s A Different Man and landed on our list of the best movie performances of the century for Worst Person, and May December nation has been waiting for Cory Michael Smith to take on a meaty role. Trier himself has been consistently putting out well-received work that’s found success on the festival circuit and could be primed for Oscar recognition—similar to Sean Baker’s status prior to last year’s ceremony, in which he was individually awarded a record-breaking four statuettes. Sentimental Value has a number of factors giving it, well, value heading into the Oscar race.
The case against: Even though the Academy has become more amenable to awarding international fare in its general-field categories, it’s hard to know which non-English films will successfully cross over. While cinephiles are more than eager to be 365 bumpin’ that all Joachim Trier Summer long (and by “bumpin’ that” I mean soberly meditating on the quietly agonizing nature of familial pain and trauma), Sentimental Value could ultimately land as a niche critical darling to general American audiences.
Marty Supreme
Current odds: +1400
What is it? A sports dramedy based on the life of pro table tennis player Marty Reisman. Starring Timothée Chalamet and Gwyneth Paltrow, directed by Josh Safdie, and distributed by A24.
The case for: No one has seen Marty Supreme yet, but the fact that it’s helmed by an Oscar staple in Chalamet and directed by one of the most interesting voices in modern cinema in Safdie indicates that it could put up quite a fight this awards season. After the Academy (criminally!) failed to recognize Uncut Gems for anything in 2019—a film that went on to become one of the most beloved movies in recent memory—it may look to avoid snubbing Safdie again.
The case against: Did I mention that no one has seen this yet? The movie might stink! And have you seen the cast list? Tyler, the Creator (!), Abel Ferrara (?!), Penn Jillette (??), and Kevin O’Leary (???) all have parts in this thing—not to mention the ping-pong of it all. Even if Marty Supreme is great, it might just be too weird for the Academy.
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Current odds: +1600
What is it? You know it, and you love it: We’re going back to Pandora. Starring Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldaña, and Sigourney Weaver; directed by James Cameron; and distributed by 20th Century Studios.
The case for: Say it with me: Never bet against Big Jim. Avatar’s first two installments are among the highest-grossing films of all time, and surely the Na’vi acolytes will show up again for Fire and Ash. Both entries were nominated for Best Picture in their respective years and took home some wins in the technical categories. If the third film crushes at the box office the way the first two did, maybe the Academy could see this as the year to recognize Avatar beyond its effects and production design.
The case against: Avatar was a serious contender for Best Picture in 2010 (It lost to The Hurt Locker—could we be in for another James Cameron vs. Kathryn Bigelow showdown this year?), but it never felt like The Way of Water had any real shot of winning the top prize at the 2023 ceremony. Plus, with two more sequels (allegedly) coming within the next six years, it would feel odd for the Academy to honor the franchise when it’s smack dab in the middle of its arc.
Bugonia
Current odds: +2000
What is it? A sci-fi satire about two conspiracy theorists who kidnap a CEO because they’re convinced she’s an alien. Starring Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons, directed by Yorgos Lanthimos, and distributed by Focus Features.
The case for: Lanthimos’s eccentric films have actually played better with the Academy than you’d think. He got Best Director and Best Picture nods for The Favourite and Poor Things, with both films’ leads taking home Best Actress. Bugonia—which competed for the Venice Film Festival’s top prize, the Golden Lion—could be the Academy’s opportunity to recognize him as one of the important modern filmmakers.
The case against: This is the fourth collaboration between Stone and Lanthimos—anyone else feeling the fatigue setting in? While Poor Things did well at the 96th Academy Awards (despite not not resembling a Cheesecake Factory), its follow-up, Kinds of Kindness, was met with mixed reception and landed zero noms at last year’s Oscars. Maybe there are only so many things you can do to Emma Stone’s hair before audiences are ready to see something else.
Frankenstein
Current odds: +2000
What is it? Frankie’s back! It’s a new stab at adapting Mary Shelley’s classic. Starring Oscar Isaac, Jacob Elordi, and Mia Goth; directed by Guillermo del Toro; and distributed by Netflix.
The case for: GDT has often been able to spook his way into some Oscar nods—Pan’s Labyrinth won three trophies back in 2006, and his bizarre romantasy (or should I say fan-fish-tion?) The Shape of Water was a surprise powerhouse at the 2017 ceremony, where it took home Best Picture. And frankly (no pun intended), who doesn’t want to see Oscar Isaac reanimate a patchwork Jacob Elordi?! Can you think of anything scarier than a 6-foot-5 abominable Euphoria kid lumbering toward you in the dead of night?
The case against: Netflix is notorious for dropping the ball during Oscar campaign season (I’m still mad that May December got almost entirely shut out of the nominations in 2023—justice for Charles Melton), and it looks like Frankenstein will receive the same minimal support. It will play only in limited theaters for a short run before getting unceremoniously dumped on streaming—which often undermines the prestige of award-chasing films. The middling reviews aren’t bolstering Frankenstein’s credibility, either.
Wicked: For Good
Current odds: +2500
What is it? Lore, and lots of it. This film will adapt the second and final act of the Wicked musical. Starring Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, and Jonathan Bailey; directed by Jon M. Chu; and distributed by Universal Pictures.
The case for: Could Wicked be in for the Lord of the Rings treatment? Since it was announced as a two-part (for now) series, it’s plausible that the Academy was waiting for Elphaba and Glinda’s story to reach the end of the yellow brick road before handing it any of its top trophies. Last year’s installment did big numbers at the box office (if you tried to see a movie while Wicked and Moana 2 were both in theaters, you may be entitled to compensation), and both actresses seemed like front-runners in their respective categories. Alas, the film walked away with wins for costumes and production design but failed to defy gravity over its opponents in the other eight categories it was nominated for. Perhaps Erivo and Grande will be holding space for a fiercer Oscar campaign this time around?
The case against: I’m not even going to open up the can of worms that was the lighting discourse around the first Wicked film. (OK, I’ll just say this: You shouldn’t have to squint to make out a jaunty musical number.) Putting the quality of the first film aside, Wicked’s first act contains all of the musical’s most recognizable numbers: “The Wizard and I,” “Popular,” and “Defying Gravity” to close. Furthermore, anyone familiar with the stage musical knows that the second act takes some genuinely bananas twists and turns, famously plagued by one of the most aggressive cases of prequelitis to infect a piece of IP. Will For Good be the smash hit its predecessor was, or does its source material doom it to be too esoteric for greater accolades?
Jay Kelly
Current odds: +2500
What is it? A dramedy following a famous actor and his manager as they travel through Europe. Featuring an ensemble cast that includes George Clooney, Adam Sandler, Laura Dern, and Billy Crudup. Directed by Noah Baumbach and distributed by Netflix.
The case for: Hollywood loves a good old-fashioned story about itself—just look at how The Studio was received at last month’s Emmys. Clooney playing an actor similar to his real-life persona is the kind of meta-narrative that landed recent films like The Fabelmans, Licorice Pizza, and Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood Best Picture nominations. Clooney has one acting Oscar under his bel but is certainly the level of movie star that could be honored twice (and he’s never won for a lead performance). Sandler has never won an Oscar, but his more dramatic turns are usually received warmly, and he could be due for a coronation.
The case against: Ctrl+F “Netflix.” Like Frankenstein, Jay Kelly isn’t likely to get a ton of support from its distributor. Moreover, while Baumbach is a respected director, his films are often pretty quaint—they don’t usually have the “appointment viewing” energy that you expect from a Best Picture hopeful. As a result, his only films to achieve Oscar recognition are The Squid and the Whale and Marriage Story. The trailers for Jay Kelly appear to be tonally similar to Baumbach’s past work.
The Smashing Machine
Current odds: +2500
What is it? A biopic based on the life of MMA fighter Mark Kerr. Starring Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt, directed by Benny Safdie, and distributed by A24.
The case for: All of the buzz around The Smashing Machine has indicated that Best Actor is the Rock’s to lose. His transformation—both his physical change and his shift to capital-S Serious acting—is right up the Academy’s alley. The film was also awarded the Silver Lion (for best direction) in Venice—could a career-defining performance from Johnson elevate it to an Oscar as well?
The case against: Despite the accolade at Venice, the reviews for The Smashing Machine have been far from a knockout. It currently holds a 76 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes and a 70 on Metacritic, indicating some negative opinions mixed in with the positive ones. While critical reviews don’t necessarily always align with the Academy’s consensus—let’s not forget that Emilia Pérez was a front-runner for much of last year’s race—they do seem to signal that The Smashing Machine will be more of a down-the-middle biopic than you’d expect from an idiosyncratic filmmaker like Safdie. On one hand, that might appeal to the Academy more than something like Uncut Gems. But on the other, the film could land as a disappointing outing from a director you’d expect to do more.
It Was Just an Accident
Current odds: +5000
What is it? An Iranian political thriller about a former political prisoner crossing paths with a man who once tortured him. Starring Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, and Ebrahim Azizi; directed by Jafar Panahi; and distributed by Neon.
The case for: It Was Just an Accident won the Palme d’Or at this year’s Cannes—maybe the most prestigious award on the festival circuit and, as of late, a fantastic résumé booster for the Oscars. (Parasite, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, and Anora were all Palme d’Or winners that went on to Best Picture nominations, with Parasite and Anora nabbing the Oscar.) The accolade could also prime the film to cross over to American audiences, as it did for Parasite.
The case against: Jafar Panahi has long been a critical darling on the festival circuit, but that has never translated into a single Oscar nomination. Maybe the Academy will see this as the year to right that wrong, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it continues to ignore him as usual. His films are staunchly critical of the Iranian governmen —he was arrested in the past for perpetuating “propaganda” against the regime, and It Was Just an Accident was filmed illegally without permission from the Islamic Republic. Panahi also recently criticized the Academy for its obstacles in the Best International Feature category. The often apolitical Academy may be too cowardly to support Panahi with a nomination (and the Iranian government may try to suppress the film, as it has done with Panahi’s work in the past). The Secret Agent has also been gaining steam as a politically charged international production and could potentially steal It Was Just an Accident’s thunder. After a significant push for Brazil to submit the Sean Penn–produced Manas for Best International Feature, there was massive public outcry from those who felt The Secret Agent was being passed over for potentially corrupt reasons. Ultimately, Brazil submitted The Secret Agent, and despite the initial controversy, the backlash showed that the film has a groundswell of support behind it.
A House of Dynamite
Current odds: +10000
What is it? A political thriller about the U.S. government’s immediate response to an incoming nuclear attack from an unknown enemy. Starring Rebecca Ferguson and Idris Elba, directed by Kathryn Bigelow, and distributed by Netflix.
The case for: A House of Dynamite got great reviews (and one of those ridiculously long standing ovations) out of Venice, where it also competed for the Golden Lion. Bigelow’s political thrillers like The Hurt Locker and Zero Dark Thirty have been Oscar favorites in the past, and her new feature sounds like it will be in the same suspenseful vein.
The case against: First of all, absolutely nobody knows this movie is coming out. Like its fellow Netflix productions, there has been very little support behind A House of Dynamite despite the prestigious filmmaker at the helm. Plus, the reviews coming out of the New York Film Festival and its U.K. release this week have been far more mixed than they were in Venice. A House of Dynamite seemed like it could explode this Oscar season, but it might turn out to be a dud.
Others to keep an eye on:
No Other Choice (+2500), a new comedy-thriller from Korean legend Park Chan-wook that got heaps of praise at Venice and TIFF.
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (+2500), this year’s token music biopic that covers the making of Bruce Springsteen’s 1982 record, Nebraska.
Is This Thing On? (+5000), Bradley Cooper’s third desperate plea for an Oscar, which stars Will Arnett as a novice stand-up comedian going through a divorce.
The Secret Agent (+6600), the aforementioned Brazilian political thriller set during the final years of Brazil’s military dictatorship, starring Wagner Moura.
Stock Watch
To paraphrase one of cinema’s great stockbrokers: Nobody knows if an Oscar stock is going to go up, down, sideways, or in circles. In this section, we’ll evaluate who’s on the up-and-up and whose momentum is sputtering out as the competition across categories heats up.
Stock up: This weekend, audiences will finally be exposed to Dwayne Johnson acting in something that isn’t muddled by an obscene amount of CGI—surely that will help his Best Actor case. KPop Demon Hunters is holding strong in the Netflix top 10 and on the Billboard charts (my thoughts are with any parent hearing their kids ask Alexa to play “Golden” for the 500th time), and it’s looking unmatched in the Best Animated Feature category. Sean Penn horrified moviegoers all week as the absurd and terrifying Colonel Lockjaw in One Battle and emerged as a favorite for Best Supporting Actor.