A new poll, with the tightest filter yet for likely voters, says Democratic candidate for governor Abigail Spanberger has a double-digit lead over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears as early voting in the 2025 election is about to start Friday.
The poll from Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center suggests Spanberger’s lead is carrying over down the ticket, with roughly as many likely voters saying they’ll vote for Democratic candidates for the House of Delegates, where Democrats hope to widen their slight edge, as well as for the Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor, state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, D-Chesterfield.
And while a slightly smaller percentage say they favor Democratic candidate for attorney general Jay Jones, the former state delegate from Norfolk still leads Attorney General Jason Miyares, a Republican who is seeking reelection, by a margin well outside the poll’s margin of error.
The poll found Spanberger has a lead of 52% to 40% over Earle-Sears, with 8% saying they’re undecided or don’t know.
Hashmi leads Republican John Reid, a former radio broadcaster, by 48% to 37%, with 15% saying they haven’t made up their minds.
Jones leads Miyares 48% to 41%, with 12% undecided.
Voters favored Democratic candidates for the House by a 51% to 43% margin. During this year’s legislative session Democrats held 51 seats to Republicans’ 49. The seat in one strong GOP district is now vacant with the retirement of former House Speaker Todd Gilbert, R-Shenandoah.
One key to the state of the race came in a question about others.
‘A federalized election’
While likely voters were slightly more likely to say Gov. Glenn Youngkin was doing a good job – 48% approved of his job performance, while 42% disapproved – 58% disapproved of President Donald Trump’s job performance, while 39% approved.
That matters in a race where Earle-Sears’ campaign has stressed her promise to carry on Youngkin’s economic development, education and public safety policies while Democrats say Trump’s federal job and spending cuts and tariffs are hurting the state, said Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, the CNU political scientist who runs the polling program.
“This is a federalized election,” she said. “Youngkin is still popular and Earle-Sears has tied herself to him, but Trump is an issue.”
The poll found that likely voters are feeling enthusiastic about casting ballots, with 87% saying they’re either very or somewhat enthusiastic. Democrats were measurably more enthusiastic than Republicans and both were significantly more enthusiastic than independent voters.
Large percentages of voters said they didn’t know the lieutenant governor and attorney general candidates, with roughly three-quarters saying they don’t know Hashmi or Reid and more than half saying they don’t know Jones or Miyares.
Spanberger’s big lead is likely to have an impact on down-ticket races, Bromley-Trujillo said.
The poll found top issues for likely voters include inflation and cost of living, with 21% saying this was most important, followed by threats to democracy, which 18% said mattered most.
As both are more a matter of what happens, or doesn’t, in Washington, Bromley-Trujillo said this was another sign that national, rather than state issues, seem to be on voters’ minds.
The poll found K-12 education, where state funding is vital, was the top issue for only 9% of voters. A similar number cited crime.
The Wason Center surveyed 808 likely voters – people who have voted in at least two of last four elections and who said they plan to vote this year – between Sept. 8 and Sept. 14. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.