Copyright Newsweek
Former Representative Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, continues to hold a polling lead over Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, a Republican, in the Virginia gubernatorial election two weeks before election day. Newsweek reached out to Spanberger and Earle-Sears’ campaigns for comment via email. Why It Matters Virginia’s off-year gubernatorial race is a key bellwether for the mood of the electorate ahead of the key midterms next year. Democrats view the race in Virginia as well as the governor's race in New Jersey as important in their hopes to push back against the Trump administration. Generally speaking, the party outside of the White House performs well in these races, fueling Democratic optimism about Spanberger’s chances against Earle-Sears. Polls have steadily shown Spanberger with the advantage, but Republicans believe there could be an undercounting of Earle-Sears’ support. What To Know Spanberger previously represented suburban areas around Richmond and Northern Virginia in Congress and has cast herself as a centrist Democrat. Earle-Sears won the lieutenant gubernatorial race four years ago and has established herself as a fierce ally of President Donald Trump. Virginia was once a closely divided battleground for much of the 2000s but has become increasingly Democratic in recent years. It backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by more than five percentage points last November and did not vote for Trump in any of his elections. The commonwealth does have a Republican governor after Glenn Youngkin, who is term-limited, won in 2021. Polling has given Spanberger a steady lead throughout the election cycle that has held as Election Day inches closer. A Kaplan Strategies poll gave Spanberger a 10-point lead (51 percent to 41 percent), while seven percent remained undecided. It surveyed 556 likely voters from October 16 to October 18 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. An earlier poll of the race from Christopher Newport University, which surveyed 805 registered voters from September 29 to October 1, showed Spanberger up 10 points (52 percent to 42 percent). It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 points. A poll from The Washington Post and George Mason University showed Spanberger up 12 points among likely voters (55 percent to 43 percent). It surveyed 1,002 likely voters from September 25 to September 29 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. A poll from The Trafalgar Group showed a closer race. It showed Spanberger up only three points (48 percent to 45 percent). It surveyed 1,034 likely voters from October 8 to October 10 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Alex Keena, an associate professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University, told Newsweek that while Spanberger has a lead in polling, there is still a path to victory for Earle-Sears Spanberger is performing well because she is well funded, has high name recognition from serving in both the Richmond and Northern Virginia areas in Congress and is a strong campaigner. Virginia tends to “punish” the party in the White House, but polls could be underestimating Republican support, he said. “Trump supporters consistently overperform relative to the polls when they actually go out and vote,” he said. “Part of tis is that Trump has managed to mobilize supporters who polls don’t expect will actually show up.” The race remains fluid, and no one will really know each candidate’s full support until election day, he said. While many Spanberger voters may cast their ballot early, Earle-Sears is likely to be banking on strong in-person support. “She’s hoping that on Election Day, there’s going to be a tsunami of people that show up and tilt the race in her favor,” he said. Republicans have sought to tie Spanberger to Democrats’ attorney general candidate Jay Jones, who has faced fierce backlash over leaked text messages to a colleague when he was serving in the Virginia state legislature that read, “Three people, two bullets Gilbert, hitler, and pol pot Gilbert gets two bullets to the head Spoiler: put Gilbert in the crew with the two worst people you know and he receives both bullets every time.” He was referring to former Speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates Todd Gilbert, a Republican, according to The National Review, which first reported the texts. Keena said that it will be “really hard to tie him to Spanberger.” While the scandal could affect his own race, it has not appeared to do so for Spanberger at the top of the ticket, he said. What People Are Saying Spanberger wrote Monday on X: “We’re nearly 2 weeks from Election Day — and I know Virginians are eager to turn the page on the chaos coming out of Washington. We’ll win this together.” Earle-Sears wrote Friday on X: “President Obama’s last pick for governor lost—and Abigail’s no better. She’s wrong on taxes, wrong on safety, and wrong on parents’ rights.” Former President Barack Obama endorsed Spanberger in a video: “As governor, Abigail will stand up for Virginia families. She’ll work to build an economy that works for everyone, not just big corporations or the wealthy.” Youngkin has backed Earle-Sears and wrote Monday on X: “Abigail Spanberger's refusal to rescind her endorsement of Jay Jones proves she does not have the courage or morality to be governor, and her far-left policies will undo every bit of success we've made the last four years.” What Happens Next Election Day is set for November 4, 2025. Early voting began on September 19. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the gubernatorial race as likely Democratic.
