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Commissioner of Police Allister Guevarro says the extension of the state of emergency (SoE) is necessary for the long-term reduction of crime. However, this newspaper must caution him, and the Government, that an SoE is not in itself a long-term solution to anything. In an interview published in yesterday’s Express, Commissioner Guevarro stated the initial threat which prompted the SoE had been dealt with. “However, criminal networks are adaptive,” he said. “When leadership structures are disrupted, others attempt to fill the void. Our disruption phase was successful. But the subsequent dismantling phase requires -sustained precision.” Presumably, that phase will involve law enforcement using their expanded powers under the SoE to ensure no further adaptation by these criminal networks is possible. At the same time, citizens have noted that ordinary criminals continue to be unaffected, and certainly unintimidated, by the police. Burglaries, robberies and home invasions are still rampant. This week alone, a courier was robbed of over $110,000 when bandits deliberately hit his vehicle at 11 a.m. on Tuesday in El Socorro. On Monday, a woman and her two daughters, aged 18 and five, were terrorised during a home invasion in Penal just after 5 a.m. And, on Sunday, a man was wounded by a gunman in Golconda in front of his house at 11.30 p.m. In this same community three weeks ago, gunmen killed a 48-year-old woman and her 25-year-old son in the street outside their home. Despite such incidents, the main victory law enforcement agencies have achieved under the SoE is a drop in murders. Commissioner Guevarro has cited statistics showing a 41% decrease compared to last year. However, this is not the best metric to measure that achievement, since 2024 was an outlier year, with the highest ever number of murders—625 dead—in this country’s history. The correct way to track any decline is by comparing this year’s rate to the past decade’s. Figures from the Crime and Problem Analysis (CAPA) Branch show that between 2014 and 2024, an average of 500 people were murdered every year. If 2025 continues at the same rate, the year will end with around 367 homicides—a 26% decrease. That is a good improvement, but a far cry from the 41% the Government has been boasting about. The 2025 murder rate at present is 28 per 100,000—which compares to 48 per 100,000 in 2024 and an average of 38 per 100,000 over the past decade. This would move T&T from its 2024 sixth-place world ranking in homicide down to 13th, according to figures from the Data Pandas website (assuming other countries’ rates hold steady). The challenge for law enforcement, and the Government, will be to maintain this momentum once the SoE ends, as it must. The Government has already taken a major step by closing down the URP and CEPEP programmes, which were linked to gang rivalries and related murders. Stopping the common criminals, who continue to deal death and disruption to citizens, will require more innovative measures.
