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As thousands of foreign delegates descend on the city of Belém in the Brazilian Amazon for COP30 this week, questions are being asked about the usefulness of the UN climate conference. It is 10 years since the Paris Agreement was signed at COP21, the landmark moment that was meant to establish the global rules to cut emissions and tackle the climate crisis once for all. The decade that has passed has seen mixed progress. Expected global warming by 2100 has fallen by nearly one degree, from 3.6°C pre-Paris to 2.7°C under current policies, though even global warming to this new level would have catastrophic impacts, warn scientists. Emissions across the world also continue to rise year-on-year. But delve into some of the climate data and there are some grounds for optimism. For starters, the rate at which emissions are rising has slowed considerably in the years since the Paris Agreement was signed, even if “peak emissions” remains elusive for now. Great swathes of the planet have, however, hit peak emissions, including all members of the G7, the EU, Australia and some countries in Latin America. In all, data analysed by The Independent shows that in the years since the Paris Agreement, 80 countries saw their emissions decrease, compared to 133 countries that saw their emissions increase. Crucially, even in emerging economies like India and China, it is no longer the case that GDP growth is tied to emissions. This means that, even as these countries continue to boom economically, that does not mean that their emissions have to similarly increase, effectively countering the argument that developing countries should be allowed to emit in order to develop. A key milestone was also marked this year, with the news that China’s emissions are believed to have now peaked. A big reason why the world is beginning to get a handle on emissions is because of soaring growth in renewable energy generation capacity. This has been driven by the fact that solar and wind renewable technology, which does not depend on any expensive fuel to work, now provides the cheapest forms of electricity there have ever been in many parts of the world. New analysis published this week by the think tank Ember found that renewable sources provided 32 per cent of global electricity in 2024 – and this is set to increase to 43 per cent by 2030, putting a key global target made at COP28 in Dubai to triple renewable electricity into sight. It is not just renewable energy sources where the cost of technology has plummeted. Electric vehicles have also boomed over the past decade, from less than a million cars sold in 2015 to more than 15 million sold last year, driven by the Chinese market. In Europe, electric and hybrid vehicles now represent a big share of the car market. In the UK, for example, a fifth of cars sold are now pure-electric, while last year in Norway, the number of electric vehicles outnumbered the number of petrol vehicles on the road for the first time. On the policy front, the idea that a country would reach ‘net zero’ emissions was not yet considered feasible back in 2015. It was only in 2019 that the UK became the first major economy to legally commit to a net-zero emissions target by 2050 – making it a serious possibility for the first time that rich, industrialised countries would one day eliminate their climate impact. Now, more than 140 countries have pledged to reach net zero, with 37 of that total holding the target in law, according to the think tank ECIU. Donald Trump revoking America’s commitment to that target is certainly a setback to global climate ambition. But even without the US on board, some 74 per cent of global emissions, and 79 per cent of the global population, is now covered by net zero targets. But even if the vision for long-term emissions reductions is in place, the latest data suggests short-term policy to make those pledges a reality remains lacking for the time being. Ahead of COP30, countries were supposed to submit new interim emissions pledges for 2035, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), but only around 60 managed to do so in time. The latest ‘Emissions Gap’ report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) found that, based on those NDCs, global emissions are set to fall by around 15 per cent compared with 2019 levels by 2035, compared to the 35 per cent and 55 per cent cut respectively needed by 2035 to align with 2°C and 1.5°C pathways. “The path to a liveable future gets steeper by the day,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in his message on the report. "But this is no reason to surrender. It’s a reason to step up and speed up. “Now is the time for countries to go all in and invest in their future with ambitious climate action – action that delivers faster economic growth, better human health, more jobs, energy security and resilience.” This article is part of The Independent’s Rethinking Global Aid series
