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This column cannot get over the hump. In the early part of the season, The Six Pack was getting killed in its Games of the Week and Lock of the Week, but crushing the other bets. Then came the 0-6 week, and ever since, we've been doing well in the Games of the Week and Lock of the Week, and struggling everywhere else. I'm sick and tired of putting 3-3 in the results table at the bottom of this column every week when I'm writing it. We're fighting for our lives out here! And by lives, I mean we're fighting to keep from getting angry emails and direct messages on social media. Trust me, I have seen all your criticism, and I'm working hard to ensure that you can win money without doing any of the work yourself. That's The Tom Fornelli Promise. Games of the Week No. 17 Cincinnati at No. 24 Utah: Speaking of receiving angry messages, I've heard plenty from Big 12 country this week. I publish the top 12 of my power ratings every Tuesday, and this week I noted how there are two Big 12 teams in my top 12 for the first time all year, and neither of the two teams is on top of the standings, BYU and Cincinnati. Instead, it's Texas Tech and Utah. This led to numerous not-so-polite messages from fans of both BYU and Cincinnati, calling me an idiot and whatnot. All while Utah was favored by 8.5, and in some places, 9.5 points against the Bearcats this weekend. Yes, part of this is a fundamental misunderstanding of what power ratings are, but it was amusing all the same. Anyway, for what it's worth, my power ratings say 8.5 points is too many for Utah to be laying against Cincinnati, even at home, and especially with the mystery surrounding Utah's quarterback situation. However, that's not the angle I'm looking to take for this game. The Bearcats have been very good this year and deserve more credit in the rankings (not ratings) than they've received for their performance. They're essentially an interception away from being 8-0. The offense has been incredible, but while that's true, it's also true Cincinnati hasn't played many strong defenses. Utah's is the best they'll have faced so far in 2025. We've talked about how great Texas Tech's defensive front is, but in Big 12 play, the Utes' defense leads the conference in pressure and sack rates. If that unit can overwhelm Cincinnati's offensive line to take away the run game, can the Bearcats do enough in the air to score points? On the other side, Utah's offense has put up strong numbers too, but most of the damage has been done against the weaker teams on the schedule. It wasn't nearly as efficient or explosive in losses to Texas Tech and BYU. This Cincinnati defense is much better against the run than defending the pass, which should match up well against the Utah offense. I don't think this will be another high-scoring Cincinnati game. The Pick: Under 55.5 (-105) at Fanduel No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Texas: First of all, let's take a moment to recognize the fact that Texas is only favored by 2.5 points at home against Vanderbilt. If that's not a testament to what Clark Lea, Diego Pavia and company have done in Nashville, I don't know what is. That's the only time I'll be mentioning the spread in this game, though, because I'm a bigger fan of playing the total here too. Vanderbilt is a terrific story, but it's also an offense that's gotten stuck in a bit of a rut. In its loss to Alabama, Vanderbilt only scored 14 points, but it moved the ball well. The problem was red-zone turnovers. The last two weeks against strong defensive fronts, they haven't moved the ball nearly as well. The LSU and Missouri wins have been victories, but they've also been Vanderbilt's worst rushing performances of the season from an EPA standpoint. Say what you want about Texas and how disappointing it has been compared to preseason expectations this year, but the defense has still been great. Texas ranks second nationally in EPA per rush on defense. The Longhorns should be able to minimize the damage Pavia and the Vandy rushing attack are able to do, and if that happens, I'm not overly confident in Vandy being able to drop back in the passing game and tear Texas to shreds. As for the Texas offense, the offensive line is bad and has been all year. That alone is a reason for skepticism about its ability to perform here, but complicating matters is the status of Arch Manning. He left last week's game with a concussion, and his status is up in the air. Manning has taken plenty of grief for not living up to the hype (which was always too much), but he's also been one of the best players on Texas' offense. If they don't have him and have to rely on Matthew Caldwell, what's the ceiling for this unit? Even if they do have Arch, it's not like they've been tearing it up against SEC competition. The Pick: Under 45.5 (-115) at Fanduel Lock of the Week Wyoming at San Diego State: I'd be very surprised if the G5 representative in the College Football Playoff comes from outside The American, but don't sleep on San Diego State's candidacy. If the Aztecs win out and win the Mountain West, they'll be 12-1 with wins over Boise State, UNLV, and a 34-0 win over Cal, a Power Four opponent. Of course, there's a lot of football left between now and that possibility, but I feel pretty good about the Aztecs being 7-1 after this week's game. Wyoming is coming off a 28-0 win over Colorado State last week, but the Rams fired coach Jay Norvell before this game, and it's fair to wonder how bought in that team is at the moment. The Cowboys have four wins on the year, and the best one is probably 2-5 San Jose State. Now they're on the road against an Aztecs team that has allowed only 24 points in three games at Snapdragon Stadium (coincidentally, Colorado State scored all of them). Sean Lewis' team has been one of the best performances in Mountain West play this year, and not just in the win-loss column. I expect the trend to continue with a comfortable win here. The Pick: -9.5 (-115) at Fanduel Team Total of the Week Penn State at No. 1 Ohio State: Raise your hand if, before the season began, you had Texas and Vanderbilt as a Game of the Week for Week 10, but not Ohio State and Penn State. It has been a long season for Penn State, and I can't imagine things will get better this week. It's the Nittany Lions' second game since firing James Franklin and losing Drew Allar, and while having a bye probably helps them get ready for this one, Ohio State's coming off a bye, too. After watching Ethan Grunkemeyer against Iowa on the road two weeks ago, I'm not overly confident in him on the road against the best defense in the country. For those unaware, Ohio State has allowed only one team to reach double-digits against it this year, and that was Illinois in a 34-16 Ohio State victory on the road. In four home games, the Buckeyes have allowed 19 points total. Why should I believe Ethan Grunkemeyer will be able to do what nobody else has? The Pick: Penn State Team Total Under 10.5 (-120) at DraftKings Home Dog of the Week No. 23 USC at Nebraska: USC has been on the road three times this year, and all three road games involved flying more than halfway across the country. The only victory the Trojans picked up in those games came against a Purdue team that's 2-6 and hasn't won a Big Ten game since the final game of the 2023 season (a 35-31 win over Indiana before Indiana got Cignetti-pilled). It's been 14 straight conference losses since. The Trojans lost to Illinois and Notre Dame. They're now 2-6 on the road since joining the Big Ten, and 9-9 all-time under Lincoln Riley. They're also only 6-12 ATS on the road under Riley, including a mark of 3-11 ATS when favored on the road. Now, trends aren't predictive, but they do tell a story. That story is USC isn't nearly as good away from home under Lincoln Riley. Meanwhile, Nebraska is 13-6 overall at home under Matt Rhule. I don't believe the Cornhuskers are quite as good as their win-loss record suggests, but they're good enough to hang within this number at home against a Trojans team that consistently underperforms on the road. The Pick: Nebraska +6.5 (-110) at DraftKings Upset of the Week No. 15 Virginia at Cal: The Cavaliers are 7-1 this season and have won six straight since losing at NC State 35-31. They're in contention to win the ACC and reach the College Football Playoff. They're also in serious danger of crashing back to Earth in the near future because they have not played nearly as well lately, despite continuing to win. A three-point win on the road over Louisville is impressive. The two-point win at home over Washington State and the one-point win on the road against North Carolina have not been. Given how Virginia is performing, and the numerous results that indicate how difficult it is for teams to travel all the way across the country for conference games, the Golden Bears are looking like a fantastic bet to pull off an "upset" at home this weekend. The Pick: Cal (+164) at DraftKings
