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“Shootin’ The Bull” by Christopher B Swift 10/29/2025 Live Cattle: Making business decisions is difficult enough, but when attempting to so under duress, it exaggerates all parts of. That is where most cattle feeders stand today, having to make significant business decisions under duress. The duress has come from multiple factors, with a great deal of those factors still with unknown consequences attached to them. Tuesday's market action is believed sheer liquidation, via the loss of over 12K contracts of open interest. A belief that commodity funds left the party a month or so ago, leads me to believe that potentially, some of the buying of the last rally was done by speculators and maybe even a few cattle feeders. Hence potentially why the abrupt sell off. Nonetheless, after having formed a pattern that looks like falling off a cliff, I anticipate the next most probable move to be an attempt to climb back up. If this materializes, it may be the point in time to make marketing adjustments that may be more in line with expectations of further government interference that may or may not lower the price of cattle and beef. Feeder Cattle: The comments on the feeder cattle are made under the premise the top has been made in the feeder cattle market. Via the CME feeder cattle index, a retracement of the most recent rally from 9/24 to 10/25 would produce price levels to consider at $325.00 .382%, $309.11 .50%, and $293.20 .618%. With futures already having equaled, or surpassed, the .382% level, it leads me to believe there is still downside risk to either of the lower levels. Since there is tremendous unknowns circulating at the moment, it may give producers some time to review what they need to do and how to achieve it. With an initial thrust lower, a correction of this initial decline is anticipated. If materializes, I believe will be an opportunity to lay off further risk before potential discovery of the .50% or .618% price levels. I think the time line for the creation of the right shoulder to be between now and well into December. After such, I would anticipate a decline that moves towards the Fibonacci retracement levels towards the spring of the year. I anticipate the .50% or .618% retracement levels to be met by one of the three spring contract months of March, April, or May. As above, this will have to be a business decision based upon achievable market price levels you can live with. To make matters worse, the above retracement levels are only calculated on the rally from 9/24 to 10/25. When viewing the entire rally from 2020 to 2025, a 50% retracement levels comes in at $241.00, about $3.00 under the previous all time record high. I think it will take all of next year to trade down to this level with the August, September, or October contract at the lows represented by a 50% retracement of the entire rally. The charts below shows the index retracement levels and what those prices may look like on the March and August of '26 contract months. Take this with a grain of salt, but this is how I think next year will unfold. A note to this is that I pretty much thought the same thing last year. With the extent of price discovery this year, all aspects are in just a wider price parameter. Corn: Corn and beans shook off a lower start to the day, but not much more than that. I anticipate a higher trade in both. Energy: Energy was lower through the night, but strengthened through the day. The EIA stocks reports showed a draw on crude and diesel fuel. I remain confused on the next most probable move in energy. Bonds: Bonds have been soft for most of the day. After the Fed announcement was made the bonds did nothing. I think the loss of appetite for US debt from other countries will cause the US to have to buy more of its own debt. Not a good look. “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.” Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.
