By Stefan Korshak
Copyright kyivpost
Of all the developments this week, the most horrific and – I fear – the one most quickly forgotten was a Russian glide bomb that hit a group of pensioners in Yarova, a town in the Donetsk region, who had gathered together next to a government officer to get their pensions. Twenty-three of them were killed. This was on Tuesday, Sept. 9. The village is about 10 kilometers behind the front lines, so there are no bank terminals or reliable electricity, which is why people have to get their pensions in cash.
The killed included 5 men aged 50-79 and 14 women aged 38-72. Injured were taken to hospitals in the cities of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Lyman. Emergency response to the scene was “complicated” by Russian drones flying in to target ambulance crews. I can confirm that, 100 percent reliable sources.
The Associated Press – you know, the legacy “Lamestream Media” some parts of the US content-consuming public loves to hate – to its very great credit got a war photographer and combat correspondent on the scene. They interviewed one Hennadiy Trush. He said his wife was killed in the blast because she had to come outside, to collect the pension of her bedridden mother-in-law, his mother. So wife dead, husband/son and mother survived. Afterward, Trush fled Yarova. His mother was carried out on a stretcher.
AP photo, Ukrainian lady is evacuated from her home after the Russian Air Force dropped a glide bomb on her village
This is the lead news item because war, for the people in it, is death or the threat of death, usually of innocent people. The Trush family had a peaceful life until the Russians invaded. Now, no.
Kyiv and the Kabmin hit on Saturday
On Sunday, Sept. 7 there was a big drone/missile raid and here are the general stats of incoming threats destroyed or disabled/observed: Drones – 747/805, cruise missiles 4/9, ballistic missiles 0/4. One woman killed with her son in Kyiv, she was 32 and he was 2 months. So there is a pic of the building, I’ll spare you the corpses.
But the big “splashy” news was this: One of the missiles smashed the roof of the Cabinet of Ministers building, in what some called a first-ever strike by Russia against a central government building in Kyiv. Since they have gone after hospitals for children with cancer in the past, and killed patients and parents, I’m not sure why a state institution getting hit is a big deal. In any case, the missile seems not to have exploded. There was some speculation Ukrainian air defenses hit it, but the Ukrainian Air Force doesn’t seem to think so. Cabmin image.
Image of the interior of Ukraine’s cabinet of ministers after a ballistic missile hit. Supposedly the missile didn’t blow up, this is all kinetic damage.
I and others in Kyiv noted anti-aircraft missile launches during the strike but it wasn’t clear if they were Patriots. I suspect “no” but I’m no judge.
Poland hit by “huge” number of drones — Wednesday
I doubt very much anyone reading this will not have heard of the, I think the official number now is 19, Russian Shahed drones that breached NATO air space over Poland on Wednesday, or that apparently Dutch F-35s shot off several AAMRAMS costing $1.5-2 million each to shoot down four of the drones, costing at best $75K each, and that now NATO is in the throes of a “What do we do now we have to show the Russians we’re really mad?” kind of thrash. Tusk characterized the Russian operation as “huge.”
I got asked on TV what I thought the Russian intent was. I answered I don’t know, but from the Ukrainian active war perspective, it looked exactly like the Russians decided to probe NATO air defenses over eastern Poland to gather information about where the defenses are and how they work. Obviously the Russians were posturing politically, but from the flight routes, it was pretty similar to a nightly Russian Shahed raid into Ukrainian air space that will get followed up by a big strike in a week or two. Which is not to say Russia is about to bomb eastern Poland. But that’s how the Russians collect targeting data.
Most of you will also be aware that on that same night, during the same drone raid, the Ukrainians had to contend with not 19 but 400-plus drones and 45 or so missiles. The Ukrainian shootdown rate was not substantially different from Sunday; about 90 percent of the drones and about 60 percent of the missiles. So people are asking out loud: How come the world’s most powerful alliance covering about 1/8 the air space Ukraine has to cover, facing about 20 times fewer incoming targets, was four times less effective at finding the Russian drones and shooting them down?
I remember what it was like the first few times in your life there was an air raid headed your way and you needed to make decisions, and I also remember the Ukrainians and their air defense in October-November 2022. So although I am in the camp that thinks NATO probably spends too much money on at times the wrong weapons, baptism of combat is baptism of combat, nothing got shot down by accident, forces from four nations (Poland, the Netherlands, Italy and Germany) fought to defend their air space against Russia, all pilots and aircraft came home, and next time they’ll do better.
Europe suddenly seems to have realized the Ukrainians have useful knowledge in this area, so in the news biz there’s all sorts of demand for information everyone in Ukraine knows. But honestly, the rest of the world hasn’t shown much interest.
Reaction to the “huge” Russian drone raid into Polish air space
This was by far the biggest international news concerning Ukraine; since ultimately it boils down to a small Russian drone incursion into Polish air space – which means NATO – we in Ukraine have to fight the instinct to say “we told you so” and “no, that’s not serious, we don’t even cancel picnics for less than two dozen drones.”
You will all have read about the incursion itself, so here’s the bullets on the reaction, which perhaps you may not have seen. The general theme is “OK, Russia has challenged Poland, how will Poland respond?” Obviously the visual for that is Marshal Józef Piłsudski.
Marshal Józef Piłsudski, a Pole famous for not letting the Russians push Poland around.
Poland slapped down a no fly zone along its border with Ukraine and Belarus (but not for most civilian aircraft), map on that
The purported safe air zone erected by NATO in eastern Poland, which in no way is anything like or in any way could be a precursor for a no-fly zone that might be erected by NATO in west Ukraine
Poland announced it’s moving 40,000 men to the border (or 30,000, or maybe that’s NATO forces not Polish, but clearly Warsaw wants everyone to think it’s a lot). Poland announced it’s shutting down border crossings with Belarus for, like, three months. Road and rail, which will undermine Russian sanctions evading somewhat and undermine Belarusian trans-shipping more. Image of a cozy and hospitable crossing point, I think that’s the Minsk-Warsaw highway.
A charming and intimate border crossing site, Poland and Belarus
Belarus is saying that’s not fair because, among other things, when some Russian drones overflew Belarus en route to Poland, Minsk called up Warsaw and warned them. That being said, whatever the reason, the Belarusians did NOT shoot those drones en route to Poland down As a matter of policy, the Belarusians try to shoot down drones invading their air space and they get really angry if it’s Ukrainian drones. Russia, the Kremlin, denied ownership of the drones, arguing it could have been anybody’s Russian opposition, Navalny’s wife Yulia Navalnaya says the Polish border ban is unfair to “average Russians,” which I take to mean she’s upset people from Moscow and St. Petersburg can’t drive their Range Rovers into Europe any more. She believes Crimea should be part of Russia. Image of Mrs. Navalnaya speaking at the Munich Security Conference. Polish investigators are finding Polish/EU SIM cards in some of the drone debris, which probably would not have been in the drone, if the Russian intent wasn’t to fly over Poland. The Ukrainians managed to stay polite and issued a restrained announcement saying Kyiv “hopes” NATO might review its air defense strategy with a view of taking Russian strikes on Ukraine more seriously. Unofficially, the Ukrainians recognize that the no-fly zone the Poles and their buddies will build next to west Ukraine and west Belarus is the logical first step of a no-fly zone over at least part of Ukraine, which the Ukrainians have arguing for since Day 1 of the war. (Some of you may recall that the counter-argument was that protecting air space from Russian attacks would antagonize Russia.) Zelensky offered and Tusk agreed that Polish soldiers should come to Ukraine to learn Ukrainian air defense tactics. Germany’s Thomas Röwekamp, chairman of the Bundestag’s Defense Committee, on Friday told Der Spiegel that “the best way to combat drones is to destroy their production facilities and launchers,” and said it would be possible for NATO assets to destroy Russian drones in Ukrainian air space.
So, it’s definitely a NATO no-fly-zone that exists to attack Russian aircraft, just don’t call it a no-fly-zone.
But I think the funniest take on Russian Drones Over Poland was offered up by the Ukrainian internet, which during the same news cycle pointed out that now that Polish soldiers in uniform are coming to Ukraine to learn how to fight an air battle against the Russians, the Russo-Ukrainian War has reached a particularly peculiar, if not topsy-turvy, geopolitical state of affairs.
To wit: NATO, an alliance dedicated from its founding to deterring Russian military aggression, is now seeking military assistance and advice from Ukraine, the very country NATO is refusing to allow into the alliance because of concerns about potential Russian aggression, to help NATO defend itself from actual Russia aggression.
Blam! Blam! Blam! Donetsk hammered by Peklo on Monday – “New” Weapon Employed
I came across an excellent Ukrainian government image of where things are getting blown up behind Russian lines, but not w-a-y behind Russian lines.
Convenient graphic from Andrishchenko time showing where the Ukrainians are focusing their strikes these days, this is for August.
The most spectacular Ukrainian long range strike actually by distance wasn’t that far as well, but boy were there fireworks. In a HUR/SBU strike that is pretty much textbook for them when they go head-hunting, last week the Ukrainians decided to unveil their Peklo drone, which is jet-powered, and take a very big swing at high-value targets in Donetsk. Specifically, Russian headquarters.
I will observe that in recent weeks there has been an uptick of Ukrainian strikes against facilities in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk. Whether this is part of a campaign to damage infrastructure there at the price of angering the population, or just more short-range and less long-range weapons, I don’t know.
Another theory of course is that if you are trying to hit a target that will run into a cellar if it gets much warning your strike is coming, then launching fast jet drones at a nearby target, and Donetsk is close, is a logical tactic.
In any case, five missiles struck in very close succession, like less than 30 seconds, in the general area of the Topaz factory/research institute.
According to the Ukrainians the targets were HQ 41st Combined Arms Army and HQ 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division. The image is a screen grab from the strike in progress, and an “official” DNR (the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic) photograph of some of the damage. If you want more detail on this strike:
Peklo jet-propelled drones hit possible Russian military HQs in Donetsk (L) building damage following the Peklo strike (R)
For even more background, or just evidence this review sometimes spots what’s coming, you could go to reviews for the past two weeks, which pretty thoroughly cataloged all the Russian air defense and particularly radar systems the Ukrainians were hunting down and destroying in southwest Russia and Crimea.
In other Ukrainian long-range strike news here is a reasonable list of other things the nice Ukrainian drones hit this week:
Saturday – Ryazan Region, Rosneft oil refinery, big fires reported, probably off line for two weeks
Tuesday – Bryansk region, village of Naitopovichi, Druzhba pipeline pump station, hits observed but no fires.
Wednesday — Vologda region, Vorovo oil pumping station, Transneft, power station targeted
Friday — (This was one of the biggest drone raids of the 220+ aircraft)
Smolensk, Lukoil refinery, cracking tower and multiple fuel reservoirs set afire
Leningrad region, Primorsk port, oil-loading facilities and tanker hit, tanker on fire
Moscow region, not clear, possibly intended to force Russians to waste anti-aircraft missiles.
Luhansk region (occupied Ukraine) — Fuel warehouse hit and set on fire
On Friday the only place signficant Russian air defense fire was reported was — wait for it — in Moscow. Moderate ineffectual fire in Smolensk, ineffective small arms in Ryazan and Leningrad, and basically none in Luhansk and Bryansk.
This is not the picture of a superpower protected by an impenetrable high-tech air defense network.
By way of variety, and speaking of pictures, I’ll close this section out not with the predictable orange fire balls but some screen grabs of a Ukraine air force MiG-29 launching two (!) HARM missiles at some kind of Russian air defense system. The video was recorded from another aircraft and neither pilot seemed overly worried about the Russian air force. Don’t know where and when it was recorded, published on Friday.
Ukrainian MiG displays and then launches a pair of HARM missiles at Russian air defense radars
Nor Was It Boring in the Black Sea
This section starts off with a Russian map of where the Ukrainians have pounded Crimea recently. It’s not unimportant pinpricks if they’re doing graphics about it.
A convenient graphic showing where the Ukrainians blow up things in Crimea
On Wednesday two French Rafale fighter jets flew the length of the Black Sea along with an Airbus refueler. I’m not clear if the Airbus was there for fuel, or so that the Rafales had the legs to make the flight. Also there was a Turkish navy maritime recon visibly paralleling the French.
We’ve seen NATO flights along the length of the Black Sea for some time but this was a bit peculiar. First thing, in the past when the French ran a mission like this, it was Mirages not Rafales, and it is pretty well known a Mirage5000 can be rigged to do a lot of ELINT reconnaissance. Don’t know about Rafeles. Probably yes, if anyone knows for sure would appreciate a note.
Second, in this trans-Black Sea flights, pretty much always, the fueler stays distant. This time now, it flew a track either (1) in reasonably close proximity to the Rafales (2) on a track pretty much identical to recon flights performed by US Navy Poseidons, Royal Air Force Rivet Joints or (rarely) US Air Force Global Hawks. The Airbus A330–243MRTT wasn’t flagged and had no announced call sign. Although it’s a tanker it’s also a people transporter, so technically, there could have been spy stuff aboard.
The Turkish recon plane, an ATR P-72, is a maritime surveillance plane but it’s built to suck in electronic data. The Turks have been flying P-72s almost daily in the west end of the Black Sea; but into the east end has been rare and effectively simultaneously and parallel with NATO warplanes doing whatever it is they were doing, in the same area, I’ve never seen it.
Crimea Wind grab from open source flight trackers showing all this curious buzzing around.
Busy skies over the Black Sea on Wednesday
The most likely but far from only possible interpretation is that this was some kind of new training/patrolling by NATO where they were practicing covering an old route with new assets.
Also, thanks to the Crimea partisans and their ability to post stuff on the internet, at about the same time these planes got south of Crimea, a pair of Su-27s took off from Belbek airport and headed south.
You guys will remember from last week the Russians managed to intercept a Poseidon and took pictures, roughly overt the same waters. This week, don’t know how the Sukhoi pilots managed, but I haven’t seen anything that an intercept got made on Wednesday.
All of this would be pretty routine and really only interesting to military/Ukraine geeks except, of course, this was all happening hours after the Russian drones had finished their excursion over east Poland. In the old days we would call this “dangerous escalation potentially leading to a NATO-Russia shooting incident”; now it’s more “let’s see how much more posturing these big countries can manage before some one far down on the command chain pulls a bonehead move.”
I read that on the return leg at least one Rafale pilot pushed his plane to 950 kts (Mach 1.6), so that’s probably worth a probably a gratuitous Rafale image if I can find one. (Succeeded)
Finally, speaking of Crimea, the Ukrainian partisans (or probably more exactly HUR masquerading as partisans) decided to be obnoxious and publish for everyone to see the latest position of the Russian air defenses near Kerch. Four launchers, S-300/S-400 missiles, plus two radar stations: 30N6E2 and 96L6E.
This is a really high-value Ukrainian target and under normal circumstances the Ukrainians wouldn’t let on they knew where stuff like this was. But this time, either they decided to fake the sighting, or just stick the sighting out in the internet to make the operators and the Russians that battery is supposed to protect, more nervous in the service. Or maybe people using the Kerch bridge. The Ukrainians claim they have precise grids. Image, if past experience is worth anything that could well be the south Azov shore between Kurortne and Yurkyne.
Ukrainian partisans troll Russian air defense opsec in Crimea.
Really, I’m Not Sure Who Owns the Black Sea These Days But It Sure Isn’t Russia
On Sept. 10 (Thursday) HUR released video (screen grab) demonstrating that had tracked and flown a drone into the bridge of a Russian warship operating in open sea, but not to far from Novorossysk. From the video it’s pretty clear this was Russian MPSV07 “multipurpose vessel” built in 2015 at the cost of $60 million. Russia has four such ships. The strike took place at night.
Russian EW/commando platform cutter about to be hit by a Ukrainian sea drone in the bridge, not cross-hairs.
Jane’s etc. tells us the MPSV07 series is one of those cool commando support boats with diving equipment, remote-controlled underwater drones, side-scan sonar, electronics intercept gear, and I have no doubt Furuno’s very best, top-of-the-line fish finder. HUR seems very confident the drone hit wrecked the electronics seeing as it blew up inside the bridge (next to the Captain?) and the boat will be damaged and unusable for some time.
But the more interesting and for Russia ominous implication is this: Pretty clearly, the Russians saw a need to risk sending an intelligence-gathering platform out into open water, and by luck or by planning the Ukrainians had some means on hand to find the Russian boat and fly an explosive drone into its bridge. One assumes it was a boat “aircraft carrier” drone but as noted the Ukrainians are clever. If this keeps up, then we will have to stop talking about Russia’s Black Sea fleet operating out of Novorossiysk, after having been chased out of Sevastopol, and instead talk about Russia’s Black Sea Fleet being blockaded in Novorossiysk.
The Dobropillia Salient is Pretty Much Gone and the Assault Infantry
Several videos have appeared showing the ZSU infantry clearing houses and mopping up positions, all Pokrovsk sector, and if you’re interested in what the Ukrainian grunts look like doing the hard work, here are the links
