Copyright Anchorage Daily News
At a time when many companies hoard workers for the holiday shopping rush, seasonal jobs are scarcer than they have been in years as firms increasingly look to do more with less amid economic uncertainty and the rising adoption of AI. Retailers will slash seasonal hiring to levels not seen since after the Great Recession, according to the National Retail Federation, which projects companies will add 265,000 to 365,000 positions. That would be as much as a 40% drop from the 442,000 roles they added in 2024, the NRF noted, a reflection of how companies are attempting to offset tariff costs and tighten their budgets. The staffing firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas also expects holiday hiring to be the weakest since 2009, “with only a handful of companies making public commitments to holiday staffing” according to September report. Andy Challenger, the consultancy’s senior vice president, attributed the downshift to inflationary pressures and companies’ reliance on “automation and permanent staff instead of large waves of seasonal hires.” “While we could see a late hiring push if holiday sales surprise to the upside, the cautious pace of announcements so far suggests that companies are not betting on a big seasonal surge,” Challenger said in the report. “This year may be more about doing more with less.” The findings offer some insight into the state of the labor market at a time when the government shutdown has held up the release of data that economists and analysts use to interpret the landscape. For workers, the pullback in seasonal hiring is coming at a time when demand for such positions is on the rise. According to data from the jobs site Indeed, interest in seasonal work from job seekers was up 27% at the end of September compared with the same time last year, and it’s up more than 50% compared to 2023. Greater desire for part-time work might reflect job seekers’ frustration with one of the strangest markets in years. A rare and vexing blend of forces - low unemployment and job quits, creeping layoffs and sluggish hiring - means there are fewer opportunities, resulting in some of the toughest job-hunting conditions since the 2008 financial crisis. “This is pretty reflective of that frozen, uncertain atmosphere we’re in,” said Allison Shrivastava, economist with Indeed Hiring Lab. “We do have a higher number of people that are interested in seasonal work, but companies seem to not be hiring as urgently.” During a conference call last week, NRF’s chief executive Matt Shay said the slump is seasonal retail hiring was symptomatic of the “softening and slowing labor market.” AI also may be playing a role, he acknowledged, as retailers have been working to “increase efficiencies” on the operations side and aiming to serve customers “more effectively,” Shay added. This year’s hiring slowdown also may reflect that there’s been “less firing in the retail industry,” NRF’s chief economist Mark Matthews said on the call. Layoffs reached recession-like levels in October, according to data from Challenger, as a recent spate of cuts by large employers such as UPS, Amazon and Target pushed the total figure for 2025 job reductions past 1 million. Meanwhile, executives like Walmart’s Doug McMillon are talking about keeping headcount down in the coming years as they hope to unlock efficiencies from AI. (Amazon founder Jeff Bezos owns The Washington Post.) In remarks at a Harvard Business Review event in early November, McMillon said that AI will transform every job at the Arkansas-based retail juggernaut, from store associates to the C-suite. While it will create new jobs, it will also “eliminate some tasks and will eliminate some roles,” said McMillon, whose company has pledged to keep its workforce at around 2.1 million for the next three years. Historically, retailer payrolls swell substantially from October to December, when they pull in the bulk of their revenues. Such hiring peaked in 2014, when it equaled more than 9% of base employment, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But this year, retailers are pulling back as they brace for an uncertain end to 2025: Consumers have been bogged down by rising grocery prices and tariff-induced inflation on toys, apparel and electronics, making some more reluctant to splurge on nonessentials. Though consumers tend to be resilient around the holidays, some analysts expect they will be choosier about their purchases this year, be more deals-driven, and forgo spending on themselves to afford gifts for family members. The NRF forecasts record spending in excess of $1 trillion in November and December, an increase between 3.7 and 4.7% compared with the same period last year. But analysts say much of that growth is driven by inflation. So far this year, consumer spending has remained relatively robust, Shrivastava said, though it’s also “pretty concentrated in the wealthier tier of people” while middle and lower-income spenders are pulling back. It’s a combination that “doesn’t necessarily translate to more jobs.” For example, “if you have two people coming into the store and spending $1 million dollars rather than a million people coming in and spending $1, you’re going to need less people to care for your two customers,” Shrivastava said. “It’ll be interesting to see how this bet that employers are making on seasonal employment pans out for them.” Kohl’s, the department store chain, publicly said it would hire some seasonal workers, but not how many. Target will hire some seasonal workers, but did not specify how many in a September blog post outlining its holiday staffing plans. The retail giant said it would offer more hours to existing team members and tap its “On-Demand” team, “a flexible group of about 43,000 store team members who pick up shifts that work for their schedules.”
