Bengals (2-1) vs. Broncos (1-2)
When: Monday, 6:15 p.m.
Where: Empower Field at Mile High
TV/radio: ABC, 850 AM/94.1 FM
Broncos-Bengals series: Denver is 22-12 against Cincinnati. The Bengals, though, pulled out a 30-24 overtime win in one of the most thrilling games on last year’s schedule after head coach Sean Payton opted to play for OT following a late Denver scoring drive rather than hunt for a game-winning two-point conversion.
In the spotlight: Pat Surtain II and the Broncos will face a J.B. under center. Not the one they’re used to.
In January 2022, the prelude to his year-long sabbatical before becoming a Bronco, head coach Sean Payton made clear to Peter King that he quite liked a certain Bengals quarterback nearly as much as Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes.
“I love Joe Burrow,” Payton told King. “I just trust the other guys to run it better. But that’s like, I like vanilla and pistachio, you like butter pecan. All good choices.”
If Burrow is butter pecan ice cream, then what’s Jake Browning? Plain yogurt?
The Broncos are well-acquainted with Burrow by now, and not in a good way. The Pro Bowl QB torched them in last year’s December overtime loss. But Burrow is sidelined for weeks after toe surgery, and the Broncos will see Browning in his stead on Monday night, a longtime backup who capably filled in for Burrow over seven starts in 2023.
Through two games, Browning’s been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, with the second-worst QB rating (67.1) in the league among qualified quarterbacks. He made enough plays in relief of Burrow in Week 2 to crunch out a win over Jacksonville. He threw two picks in Week 3 as the Bengals got crushed 48-10 by Minnesota.
Still, take Cincinnati’s passing game for granted at your own risk. Last year’s December matchup tanked the Broncos fanbase’s perception of CB2 Riley Moss, after Bengals No. 2 wideout Tee Higgins went off for 11 catches, 131 yards and three touchdowns. And Ja’Marr Chase, the league’s No. 1 WR in perception and payday, just caught 14 balls for 165 yards against the Jaguars in Week 2.
The guy delivering the ball to Chase and Higgins, though, is substantially different and changes the Bengals’ high-powered attack. The two wideouts landed a combined $276 million in extension money this offseason, but they caught a combined six passes for 65 yards against the Vikings.
“We couldn’t find a great rhythm to be able to get those guys the ball enough,” Bengals head coach Zac Taylor said Monday.
The question, now, is how the Bengals try to get those guys in rhythm against the Broncos and reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II. A dissection of Burrow and Browning’s attempts in 2025 reveals two slightly different approaches: Browning has thrown substantially more over the middle (37.3% of his attempts) than Burrow (19.4%), as the Bengals have taken fewer shots to the sideline with their backup quarterback.
Chase has played a decent percentage more in the slot across the past two games than he did in Week 1 with Burrow, too. The Bengals could line him up there more frequently against the Broncos to try to get him away from Surtain and get some easier underneath looks for Browning.
This will be another statement game for Moss, too. He’ll undoubtedly find himself lined up opposite Higgins often on Monday, and Cincinnati can’t afford to only send two targets for a second straight week to a receiver worth nearly $30 million a year.
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run: The Bengals run defense has been just fine this year, ranking near the middle of the pack in effectiveness through three games. Second-round pick Demetrius Knight is a promising inside linebacker. His LB mate Logan Wilson is a steady veteran. But Broncos RB J.K. Dobbins is rolling right now, tied for eighth in the NFL in yards per carry, and is currently the steadiest part of an unsteady Denver attack. Edge: Broncos
When Bengals run: Jake Browning for Joe Burrow is actually far from the Bengals’ biggest problem on offense right now. Through three games, starting RB Chase Brown has 47 carries for … 93 yards. As a team, Cincinnati’s currently dead last in the NFL at a revolting 2.4 yards per carry. The Broncos run defense has been gashed up the middle at times the last two weeks, but the Bengals haven’t shown an ability to challenge anyone on the ground. Edge: Broncos
When Broncos pass: Here’s where things get tricky. Bo Nix has been the worst starting quarterback in the NFL when under duress — at least, by the numbers — through three games this season. The Bengals, however, blitz less often than any other team in the league and largely rely on nickel-heavy schemes. Cincinnati hasn’t allowed a single deep completion (over 20 yards) to any team. The Bengals also give up the most yardage on intermediate throws (between 10-19 yards) in the league. Nix, on the flip side, currently has the worst rating in the league on intermediate throws among 31 qualified NFL quarterbacks. Fascinating! Edge: Even.
When Bengals pass: Jake Browning currently stands alone in leading the NFL in picks with five, and has thrown 47 fewer passes than any of the guys who’ve thrown four. Edge: Broncos
Special teams: Bengals punter Ryan Rehkow is leading the NFL in yards per punt through three games, but kicker Evan McPherson struggled at times last year, finishing 6 of 12 on kicks longer than 40 yards. The Bengals also haven’t shown much in the return game. Edge: Broncos
Coaching: Denver committed 10 penalties against the Chargers last week, several of which were back-breaking or momentum-shifting. You’re not in a great place with discipline if you’re drawing flags for offensive offsides and neutral-zone infractions on punt defense. But the Bengals have a horrid ground game and couldn’t feed the ball consistently to their two best playmakers against the Vikings, and got walloped for it. Sean Payton’s game-calling was decidedly above-average last week, too. Edge: Broncos
Tale of the tape
Broncos Bengals Total offense 302.0 (T-19th) 220.7 (32nd) Rush offense 129.0 (8th) 49.0 (32nd) Pass offense 173.0 (25th) 171.7 (27th) Points per game 22.7 (17th) 19.3 (24th) Total defense 327.3 (19th) 359.7 (25th) Rush defense 114.7 (21st) 119.0 (22nd) Pass defense 212.7 (18th) 240.7 (25th) Points allowed 21.3 (16th) 30.3 (26th)
By the numbers
22%: Percentage of red-zone snaps against the Bengals’ defense that have gone for a touchdown in 2025.
1: Fourth-quarter carries Broncos running back J.K. Dobbins got in last week’s loss to the Chargers.
6.1%: Percentage of snaps the Bengals stack the box (eight or more defenders), second-lowest in the NFL.
6.7: Yards per catch for Marvin Mims Jr. this year, down from last year’s mark of 12.9.
50%: Bengals WR Tee Higgins’ catch rate, down from 67% in 2024.
21: Quarterback pressures by Broncos OLB Nik Bonitto, the highest in the NFL through three games.
X-factors
Broncos: WR Marvin Mims Jr. Where has Mims’ long-awaited breakout been in Year 3? The multidimensional receiver has caught just six passes through three games and has taken just a handful of snaps in the backfield, after emerging as a hybrid weapon in Sean Payton’s offense last year. Denver could use another passing-game threat to take the pressure off Bo Nix, and Mims’ coming-out party last year came against the Bengals: eight catches for 103 yards and two touchdowns in December.
Bengals: S Jordan Battle. After the Chargers’ Derwin James Jr. was named the AFC Defensive Player of the Week for his work against the Broncos, Denver faces another highly productive and versatile safety in Battle. The Alabama product has two picks and leads the Bengals with 23 tackles entering Monday night’s matchup. This Cincinnati defense has been mediocre overall, but Battle offers legit playmaking potential from the secondary.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, Broncos beat writer: Broncos 28, Bengals 13.
Wins and losses are all that matter in the NFL. But early in the season, that measuring stick can be a noisy one. Cincinnati is 2-1, but is also quite bad by almost every metric. The Broncos are 1-2, and while their warts are obvious, they’re also in many ways a pretty good team. If Joe Burrow were playing, this could have shaped up to be a barnburner a la December along the Ohio River. Instead, this lines up well for Sean Payton’s team to get in rhythm offensively and take the ball away defensively.
Luca Evans, Broncos beat writer: Broncos 31, Bengals 10.
This Cincinnati team is bad right now — just look at the tale of the tape above. They can’t run well. They can’t pass well. They don’t rush the passer well, or much at all. In a primetime game at home, this is the perfect environment for Sean Payton’s group to round into form and for quarterback Bo Nix to quiet an increasingly loud group of doubters. Expecting a blowout.
Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 30, Bengals 18.
The Broncos offense doesn’t do anything particularly well. And the Bengals are just unwell. The health of Joe Burrow has again jeopardized a season because the Bengals refuse to invest in a line to protect him. So, the Broncos get a get-right game. Their frothing defense is ready to show it can finish against Jake Browning. Only Akili Smith would have been a better matchup. This sets up as a night for the Broncos to figure out who they are offensively — feed J.K. Dobbins — while sacking Browning repeatedly.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 27, Bengals 17.
The Burrow Bowl is now The Burro Bowl, as both QB1s in this game have played like donkeys as of late. (So much for Monday Night Football marketing.) At least Cincy’s bringing old pals Dalton Risner, Noah Fant and Samaje Perine back to town, so that’s fun. Watching this secondary try to cover Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins won’t be. Fortunately, the Bengals rank sixth among NFL offenses in sack rate allowed, which means a lovely night of watching Nik Bonitto turning Empower Field into Casa Bonitto again.