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Senior Scottish Labour figures believe Keir Starmer will quit as Prime Minister if the SNP wins the Holyrood election . The MSPs and MPs spoke out in the wake of Labour’s humiliating defeat in the Caerphilly by-election in Wales. Plaid Cymru stormed to victory in the once safe Labour seat, with Reform coming second on 36% and Starmer’s party a distant third on 11% . With the Holyrood election months away, Scottish Labour is seventeen points behind the SNP and in a battle for second place with Nigel Farage’s party. Scottish Labour sources believe Starmer’s struggling Government is to blame and claim the PM will pay a price in May if Holyrood slips away. One insider said: “I think he will be gone quickly. His poll ratings are so poor that a defeat in Scotland would be the final nail in his coffin.” A second parliamentarian said Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar needed to put distance between himself and the PM: “Starmer is on borrowed time and Sarwar needs to boldly emerge as his own man, stamp his authority and show his party as a different brand. “The result in Caerphilly is Anas Sarwar’s final wake up call and if he does not change course he is going down to defeat.” “Voters in Scotland have plenty of options in a multi-party election. They need compelling reasons to vote Scottish Labour. The source warned Scottish would be "squeezed" if they did not capitalise on anti-Reform tactical voting. Another senior Labour politician criticised the party’s Scottish MPs for speaking out on devolved issues: “Scottish Labour MPs need shut the f*** up. All that does is remind voters of Starmer and Westminster.” First Minister John Swinney has previously claimed Starmer will quit as PM if the SNP is returned in May. He said this month: “I think Keir Starmer is in enormous difficulty with the strength of SNP support in Scotland. “The return of an SNP majority in Scotland, I think what that would demonstrate is the weakness of the Prime Minister and inevitable instability that would flow in what is already an unstable situation in the UK Government.” Meanwhile, a Labour faction backed by Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham has warned Starmer “time is short” after the by-election humbling. Mainstream, a new soft-Left group, warned: “Time is short. We promised the British people a decade of national renewal. Their patience is wearing thin, and their faith in Labour is slipping away. “So long as UK Labour governs without a clear vision, detached from its moral purpose and democratic socialist foundations, losses like this will only become more frequent. A majority of voters in Caerphilly turned to Plaid Cymru and a significant number to Reform because they want change.” Pollster Sir John Curtice said Reform UK would be disappointed at coming second in the by-election in Wales, but added: “I don’t think we should run away with the idea that this, in any way, suggests that Nigel Farage’s bubble is burst.” He said the result is “pretty consistent” with the way Farage’s party has been polling generally. SNP Depute Westminster Leader Pete Wishart MP said: “This is an historic win for Plaid Cymru and will send shockwaves well beyond Welsh politics – it points the path to the opportunity voters will have at next year’s Holyrood and Senedd elections. “The historic combination of an SNP majority in Scotland and a Plaid Cymru victory in Wales is the perfect chance to beat Nigel Farage’s Reform Party and remove Keir Starmer at the very same time – you’d be hard pressed to find a better two for one offer. “And that’s exactly the offer and the opportunity that will be on ballot papers in Scotland and in Wales next May - achieving that historic result would have the most powerful impact on a broken Westminster system that is so far removed from the priorities of our peoples. “For my own nation it would also set us on course to be given the chance of a fresh start with independence - free from Westminster's self-serving chaos. “The chaos of this Labour Government and the threat of a Farage future is proof of the same pattern people have been living with for years - Westminster doesn’t work for Scotland, it doesn’t work for Wales and Brexit Britain is broken. “In place of a damaging Westminster consensus that has inflicted austerity, Brexit and an endless cost of living crisis – our nations have the chance to build our own celtic consensus based on the simple but powerful idea that our interests are always far better served by self-government.” To sign up to the Daily R ecord Politics newsletter, click here
